JC / Railbird

Rachel Alexandra

Shaping Up

Barring any surprises in the Arkansas Derby or Blue Grass Stakes, my list of top 10 Kentucky Derby prospects is pretty much settled (although adjustments are likely over the next three weeks to accommodate changes in status, hoof issues, training problems). I Want Revenge is now #1, moving up from #3, off his stupendous Wood Memorial win, which only grew more impressive watching the replay. Something I failed to notice during the race was that Joe Talamo doesn’t go to the whip at any point — after patiently guiding IWR down the backstretch, saving ground and not hustling to make up for the poor start, then splitting horses to get out of traffic coming into the stretch, Talamo handrides IWR to the wire. Amazing.

Quality Road drops to #2, a move I made before hearing the colt has a quarter crack, which is being treated by Ian McKinlay. Imperial Council drops off completely, while Terrain creeps into #10. We’ll see how the under-the-radar colt, third in the Louisiana Derby, does in the Blue Grass on Saturday.

Top 10 for 4/7/09 PDI: 1. I Want Revenge 2. Quality Road 3. Pioneerof the Nile 4. Desert Party 5. Old Fashioned 6. Friesan Fire 7. Dunkirk 8. Regal Ransom 9. Papa Clem 10. Terrain

How about Rachel Alexandra in the Fantasy Stakes? The embodiment of easy:

Calvin Borel starts mugging on the backstretch, but I can’t blame him. She’s just galloping, the other four fillies totally at her mercy, lolling through unhurried fractions to a final time of 1:43.35, finishing more than eight lengths ahead of Afleet Deceit. On to the Kentucky Oaks …

Odds and ends: Old Fashioned worked five furlongs in 1:00.6 at Oaklawn on Monday. Trainer Larry Jones was pleased with how the colt went around the turn. “That was the big thing.” I’m nonchalantly ignoring Musket Man for now, even though he’s definitely heading to the Kentucky Derby after winning the Illinois. And The Pamplemousse is out, for at least six months, possibly longer. “Our goal is the Pacific Classic [at Del Mar] next year.”

Posted in Racing on April 7, 2009 / Tagged Derby Prospects, I Want Revenge, Kentucky Derby, Lists, Quality Road, Rachel Alexandra

Notes for 2009-03-24

– Albertus Maximus, likely Dubai World Cup favorite, looked “awesome” galloping on Monday, said assistant Trish McLaughlin. But Pat Cummings, in Dubai for the races and blogging at Dubai Race Night, reports the 5-year-old BC Dirt Mile winner looked “noticeably washy.” The pictures back him up. [3/25/09 Update: Albertus Maximus appeared improved on Tuesday, and Cummings writes, that despite the horse’s general sogginess, “I can’t knock what I’ve actually seen of the favorite.”

– No change to my top 10 Derby prospects in this week’s PDI. Rachel Alexandra remains #1 for at least one more week. Late Triple Crown nominations are being accepted through Saturday, and trainer Hal Wiggins said over the weekend that, “the door is still open.” The next start for the filly, whether she points to the Oaks or the Derby, is the April 5 Fantasy Stakes.

– Remembering Lil E. Tee, euthanized on March 18 at age 20: Claire Novak talks to Pat Day about his first Kentucky Derby winner; John at Not Always to the Swift recounts a visit between Pennsylvania-breds.

Posted in Racing on March 24, 2009 / Tagged Albertus Maximus, Derby Prospects, Dubai, Kentucky Derby, Lists, Rachel Alexandra

Shake Up

Rachel Alexandra hasn’t previously appeared in my top 10 Kentucky Derby prospects list, but she’s now #1 after winning the Fair Grounds Oaks yesterday with style and ease and in a final time of 1:43.55, barely 1/10 of a second slower than Friesan Fire finished the Louisiana Derby. Surely, she could have met or exceeded that time with little effort, if Calvin Borel had kept to the task instead of showboating through the final sixteenth, gearing the filly down and throwing back exaggerated glances at the trailing competition.

Before Saturday, trainer Hal Wiggins allowed there was a possibility Rachel Alexandra could be a late Triple Crown nominee. As of this morning, though, her connections seem set on their original plan of going to the Kentucky Oaks. “We have too good a filly to risk her future in a 20-horse field of brutal, man, macho colts,” said co-owner Dolphus Morrison (Courier-Journal). Oh, man. I’ll let that quote speak for itself, and hope Morrison et al reconsiders.

Following his facile victory in the Louisiana Derby, Friesan Fire moves from #3 to #2, ahead of Desert Party, while Old Fashioned, formerly #1, sinks to #6. In his New York Times wrap-up today, Joe Drape offers a few excuses for the colt’s second-place finish in the Rebel Stakes:

[The crowd] watched Old Fashioned stagger in the stretch after contesting wickedly fast fractions. He chased Silver City through a rapid half mile in 46.07 and three quarters of a mile in 1.11.67.

Maybe. I’ll wait to see how he does in the Arkansas Derby, but the Rebel reminded me of how Old Fashioned tired in the stretch of the Southwest, which was then marked up to it being his first start of 2009.

The list for 3/17/09 PDI: 1. Rachel Alexandra 2. Friesan Fire 3. Desert Party 4. Pioneerof the Nile 5. I Want Revenge 6. Old Fashioned 7. Quality Road 8. Dunkirk 9. Imperial Council 10. Papa Clem

Hot Derby prospects weren’t the only horses running on Saturday. At Santa Anita, Life Is Sweet won her third straight stakes this year and her first G1 when she scored the Santa Margarita with a determined stretch run:

Not that the rest of the field didn’t know Life Is Sweet was coming: “They were all looking back at me,” said jockey Garrett Gomez. “I was laughing at the three-eighths pole” (ESPN). Impossible to tell he’s doing that in the video, but I can believe it, because the way the filly rolled up on the outside, tough and graceful, looked like a fun ride.

Life is Sweet is a great example of a late-blooming horse, and her handling has been of the patient sort we don’t seem to see much of these days. Although she won her first race as a 2-year-old in her second start at Belmont back in October 2007, Life Is Sweet struggled through her 3-year-old season to do better than second, running against fillies like Proud Spell and Little Belle in races such as the Ashland and Sands Point Stakes. Since returning this January, she’s emerged as trainer John Shirreff’s other distaff star, second only to Zenyatta. Asked if the 4-year-old filly might meet her champion stablemate on the track sometime this year, owner Martin Wygod replied, “Who knows?” Racing fans can wish.

Posted in Racing on March 15, 2009 / Tagged Derby Preps, Derby Prospects, Friesan Fire, Kentucky Derby, Life Is Sweet, Lists, Old Fashioned, Rachel Alexandra