JC / Railbird

Racing History

Three Days Out

When asked, before the 1983 Preakness, about Marfa’s quarter crack:

Lukas responded: “When you get so close to one of these Triple Crown races with a good horse you do everything you can to make the race.”

The reporter countered with this remark that ended the press conference: “That sounds great Mr. Lukas, but isn’t it the horse that’s going to have to run around the track on Saturday; not you?”

Deputed Testamony won, Marfa finished fourth.

Posted in Racing on May 8, 2014 / Tagged D. Wayne Lukas, Deputed Testamony, Marfa, Preakness Stakes, Racing History

Harthill’s Legacy

Take a break from handicapping tomorrow’s Churchill Downs card and read this fascinating story by Ryan Goldberg about veterinarian Alex Harthill, the 1964 Kentucky Derby, and the origins of the modern drug culture in racing:

It is unclear if Northern Dancer was a true bleeder. His performances on the track — except for a third-place finish against weaker company in early 1964 — suggest he may not have bled badly, and Harthill had other reasons for administering it. Veitch said Harthill had told him that Northern Dancer was hot-blooded and that the diuretic would lower his blood pressure and calm his volatility. He wouldn’t leave his race in the paddock, as horsemen say.

Posted in Racing on May 2, 2014 / Tagged Dr. Alex Harthill, Drugs in Racing, Kentucky Derby, Lasix, Northern Dancer, Racing History

Wise Dan’s Return

The Horse of the Year is set to make his first start of 2014 today, and:

“If he is going to be vulnerable, this is it because the others that are in there have been running,” [trainer Charlie] LoPresti said.

True, but he’s also a returning champion. The odds are good that he’ll win. In 2010, I found that returning champions beat the winning favorites average by a significant margin when they made their first starts of a new season.

The stats for returning champions are now updated through 2012: You can view the numbers and complete spreadsheet via Raceday 360. There are a couple of changes in this year’s version: I restricted the data to only starts made in North American races with wagering (horses who returned in non-wagering exhibition races and foreign races were excluded, as were steeplechase champions). I also broke out the numbers by division and decade this year, as well as by class, which revealed a few interesting tidbits.

One thing I left out of the R360 post, but wanted to make note of, is that all champions, not only the favored, won or finished in the money in 186 out of 228 races (or 82% of starts). Be sure to include them in your exotics.

The original data, including all champions named from 1971-2012, and not only those who returned to race, can be downloaded as an Excel file.

4/12/14 Update: And Wise Dan wins the Maker’s 46 Mile by three-quarters of a length over Kaigun. Here’s the returning Horse of the Year chart, updated:

That brings the returning HOTY record to 18 wins from 23 starts (18 wins from 22 favored), for a total payout of $49.10 on $46 bet.

Posted in Racing on April 11, 2014 / Tagged Betting, Champions, Favorites, First Starts, Horse of the Year, Racing History, Statistics

More Than Strength

Diane Crump reflects on her pioneering career as a jockey with Mary Simon, and the debate over whether women are strong enough to ride in races:

“You know what? None of us is that strong when compared to a horse. It’s the feel you have for them that matters. If you can get along with them, relate to them, those are the things that make you a horse person and a rider. Brute strength has no relevance at all …”

Or as Julie Krone, another rider who accomplished a number of firsts for women in racing, told Ed Zieralski recently:

“I know one thing. It takes both genders to ride a racehorse, the feminine for soft and subtle, and the masculine for strong and effective.”

Posted in Racing on June 21, 2013 / Tagged Diane Crump, Jockeys, Julie Krone, Racing History, Women in Racing