JC / Railbird

Saratoga

Pletcher Baby ROI

Everyone knows that trainer Todd Pletcher is dominant is Saratoga juvenile races, but he’s profitable, too, in certain scenarios: His five-year win stat for first-time starters in dirt sprint maiden special weights is 32%, with an ROI of $2.57. In the same conditions, restricted to state-breds, he’s 46%, with an ROI of $3.25. “Perhaps the time to take down a Pletcher juvenile firster is in maiden special weight turf routes,” writes Dan Illman, who pulled the preceding numbers from DRF Formulator. Good luck getting a big price in any circumstance, though: The longest juvenile shot Pletcher has won at Saratoga with in the past five years is Interactif, in the 2009 With Anticipation. He was 16-1 at post time. The only other Pletcher winner with double-digit odds was Lawn Man, in a 2012 six-furlong MSW. He was 10-1 going into the gate.

Posted in Racing on July 18, 2013 / Tagged Betting, DRF Formulator, Handicapping, Juveniles, ROI, Saratoga, Statistics, Todd Pletcher

How Things Change

Jeremy Plonk has a realization re: how betting is changing at Woodbine:

It reminds me a lot of playing online through Xpressbet and other ADW outlets. We trust ourselves and trust the technology every single day we play. We just don’t typically do it at the racetrack, because we’re often too stuck on tradition to realize how society has changed.

Journalism changes, too: Steven Crist on 35 years at Saratoga.

Posted in Racing on July 12, 2013 / Tagged Betting, Media, Portabubble, Press Box, Saratoga, Technology, Woodbine

“The Statistics Are Somewhat Hopeful”

Jeff Scott checks the stats on Saratoga’s Lasix-free juvenile starters:

The 141 Lasix-free 2-year-olds were distributed over 71 races; only nine were post-time favorites. As a group, they accounted for 10 wins, 13 seconds and 14 thirds. With all the variables involved, it is difficult to assess the significance of these results. The sample is also a very small one. It can be said, though, that many 2-year-olds performed well without Lasix this summer at Saratoga. And that is good news for anyone who doesn’t like to think American horses can’t compete without this medication on race day.

Noted: “Bled” isn’t a chart comment on any of those races.

Posted in Racing on September 11, 2012 / Tagged Juveniles, Lasix, New York, Raceday Medications, Saratoga, Statistics

The Babe’s Game

Say whatever about trainer Rick Dutrow’s record and his apparent inability to hew even the straight-and-wide rules of horse racing, the man gives a great interview. He’s self-deprecating, a little endearingly self-pitying, feisty, funny. He loves horses; he loves winning, too. For all that he poses as an amiable goof, there’s a wily, hard intelligence he can never quite hide. Of course he’s become an outlaw hero to some, in this, the summer of his endless appeal.

Joe Drape’s latest will add to his legend: The New York Times writer checks in with Dutrow after Willy Beamin’s win in the King’s Bishop off three days rest, and his story is studded with terrific quotes, including this small declaration:

It’s my game, babe, I love it.

Ha! Trickster words from the trickster trainer. No matter how you look at Dutrow and his record, “It’s my game, babe,” is a fitting motto.

Posted in Racing on August 30, 2012 / Tagged New York, Richard Dutrow, Saratoga, Trainers, Tricky Rick