JC / Railbird

Soldat

The Factor’s Figure

A preliminary Beyer speed figure of 103 for The Factor in the Rebel Stakes, the sole graded Kentucky Derby prep this weekend. As DRF Derby tweeted, that figures ties “with Soldat for best Beyer by a 2011 3-year-old going mile or longer.” Soldat just happens to be the other War Front colt on the Derby trail, casting doubt on claims by pedigree handicappers that The Factor can’t get the Derby distance. Count me among the skeptical, but on the matter of pace, not breeding. The Derby isn’t kind to front-runners.

Trainer Bob Baffert said that the April 16 Arkansas Derby is a likely next start, but that all options are open to The Factor. “I could go anywhere. He’s nominated everywhere. You never know where I’m going to go.”

Mike Watchmaker favorably compares the Rebel to the Azeri Stakes, impressively won by Havre de Grace: “… you can argue that The Factor had the more demanding trip, and yet still ran almost as fast as Havre de Grace.”

Posted in Racing on March 20, 2011 / Tagged Breeding, Derby Pedigrees, Derby Preps, Derby Prospects, Soldat, Speed Figures, The Factor

Gulfstream Prep Figures

Beyer speed figures of 102 for Flashpoint in the Hutcheson Stakes and 96 for Soldat in the Fountain of Youth Stakes at Gulfstream on Saturday; 98 for R Heat Lightning in the Davona Dale. The Kentucky Derby and Kentucky Oaks prep schedules have been updated with charts and replays.

Posted in Racing on February 27, 2011 / Tagged Derby Preps, Derby Prospects, Flashpoint, Oaks Preps, Oaks Prospects, R Heat Lightning, Soldat

Saturday Notes

Azeri’s second foal, a 3-year-old filly by Giant’s Causeway named Arienza, is readying for her debut at Oaklawn. “We are starting to raise our sights a little higher, but then again, you remember she hasn’t won anything yet.”

The Timely Writer is back on the table for Dialed In. “I’m not happy with the distance of the race since they changed it to a mile from a mile and one eighth…. But at the moment we don’t have that many options.”

Handicapping the Fountain of Youth: “You try to beat To Honor And Serve, and I’ll try to beat Soldat.” In the Davona Dale, try to beat Dancinginherdreams.

Posted in Racing on February 26, 2011 / Tagged Arienza, Azeri, Dancinginherdreams, Derby Preps, Derby Prospects, Dialed In, Gulfstream Park, Oaklawn Park, Oaks Prospects, Soldat, To Honor and Serve

Saturday Notes

It’s become fashionable to say that we haven’t seen the Kentucky Derby winner yet, the “yet” referring to any race for 3-year-olds in January, but looking over the prep schedules of the last four Derby winners, it occurs to me that we may not have even seen the winner work yet. Super Saver posted the first work of his sophomore year on January 24, 2010; Big Brown didn’t get started until February 24, 2008; Street Sense worked for the first time on January 29, 2007. All three, plus Mine That Bird, then had only two prep races, none earlier than Mine That Bird’s start in the February 28, 2009 Borderland Derby at Sunland.

Despite the trend, Derby watchers can’t help getting excited over allowances such as that won by Soldat at Gulfstream on Friday over a sloppy track (replay). The race, which Jeremy Plonk predicts will produce at least two winners of major Triple Crown preps, lost a little of its shine when trainer Nick Zito scratched maiden winner Dialed In because of the track condition. The colt will now point to the January 30 Holy Bull. “It’s not what I wanted to do, but it looks like that’s what we’re going to do,” said Zito. Trainer Kiaran McLaughlin said that Soldat could start next in the February 26 Fountain of Youth at Gulfstream. [Soldat was given a Beyer speed figure of 102 for the win.]

Foolish Pleasure rounds up today’s interesting 3-year-old runners, leading with the Sweetest Chant at Gulfstream, which drew trainer Ken McPeek’s Kentucky Oaks filly Kathmanblu. She’s making her return to turf after winning the Golden Rod at Churchill last November. “I want to keep her around two turns and get a race into her, and then get her back to dirt,” said McPeek. At the Fair Grounds, Aide, fourth in the Golden Rod, returns for trainer Al Stall in the Silverbulletday Stakes. She’s the one starter out of eight who didn’t win her last race. The Fair Grounds also features the Lecomte Stakes on today’s card with its five-horse field headed by the “quirky” Justin Phillip, getting blinkers on. For a much more comprehensive preview of the Lecomte and other prep races, subscribe to the Hello Race Fans! weekly Derby Prep Alert emails. (I do contribute to the site and the DPA; I get nothing for the plug, other than the pleasure of steering people to a genuinely good Derby Trail resource.)

Trainer Bob Baffert will be at Oaklawn for the February 21 Southwest Stakes. He’s still considering with which horse he’ll be making the trip.

At the CHRB board meeting on Thursday, there was little interest in rescinding the January 1 takeout hike on exotic wagers that’s infuriated horseplayers. “That would have to come from the tracks themselves and from the TOC,” said commissioner John Harris. There was no sign from Santa Anita last week that track executives would be requesting a rollback, despite a handle drop. “We’re where we want to be, but that’s something that’s we’re looking at every day,” track president George Haines told Steve Andersen.

Speaking of the Santa Anita handle numbers, about which there’s been some uncertainty, Mark Thurman gave a presentation on CHRIMS, the accounting and settlement system used by the track (and other California tracks), during Thursday’s CHRB meeting. Of interest to those following the numbers, Thurman said that CHRIMS was working on making “a small database” of handle figures available on CalRacing. Asked when that database might be online, Thurman replied, “Our goal is to have it up within two weeks.”

Posted in Racing on January 22, 2011 / Tagged California, CHRB, CHRIMS, Derby Preps, Derby Prospects, Fair Grounds, Gulfstream Park, Handle, Justin Phillip, Kathmanblu, Oaks Preps, Oaks Prospects, Santa Anita, Soldat