JC / Railbird

Speed Figures

Thursday Notes

Jaycito returned to the track this morning for the first time since his runner-up effort in the San Felipe last Saturday. He’ll be getting blinkers on again in the Santa Anita Derby, reports Steve Haskin, “after losing his focus a bit while apparently bored being at the back of the pack …” The San Felipe was the first career start the colt, my PDI #2 #4, made without blinkers. “I love the way he took dirt and settled well off the pace,” said trainer Bob Baffert replying to an emailed inquiry about Jaycito. “He will improve more next time.”

Dick Jerardi defuses angst about Uncle Mo’s so-so Timely Writer speed figure (DRF+): “It only went down that way because of the way the race was run, something that does happen in Beyer World, but not all that often.” [TT reports a Ragozin number of 4 for Uncle Mo, adjusted for the slow pace.]

Colin’s Ghost wonders whether a Triple Crown winner will appear again.

A potential rivalry? “Whether Premier Pegasus will be the one to push Uncle Mo and give us an incredible rivalry is open to debate,” writes Bob Ehalt. “Maybe he’s another Sunday Silence, or maybe he’s another Buzzards Bay.”

Churchill Downs could install the Trakus system in time for the spring meet, putting an end to the occasional Kentucky Derby chart error.

Posted in Racing on March 17, 2011 / Tagged Churchill Downs, Derby Preps, Derby Prospects, Jaycito, Speed Figures, Trakus, Uncle Mo

High-Class Runners

Via Thoroughbred Times, an academic study confirms that higher-class racemares produce higher-class offspring. (Interesting, and must-reading for anyone doing late-night kitchen-table broodmare research.) Faster mares, stakes winners or not, also produced above-average foals. Using Equibase speed ratings, the University of Louisville researchers found, “Speed is the breeder’s friend…. comparing speedy dams to slower dams reveals that the speed of the dam is highly statistically significant …”

Posted in Breeders/Breeding on March 2, 2011 / Tagged Broodmares, Research, Speed Figures, Speed Industrial Complex, Statistics

So Good It’s Bad

Bind’s super-impressive Saturday debut earns super-figures:

Bind earned a Beyer Speed Figure of 105 for his performance and a Ragozin Data performance figure of 1 1/4, which is so good it’s bad, according to Len Friedman, a partner in Len Ragozin’s The Sheets.

“The history is that it’s a negative, not a positive,” Friedman said Wednesday. “It’s more likely to affect him negatively, but who knows, maybe [Bind] is another Uncle Mo.”

And a bit of skepticism from Mike Watchmaker:

… when a first time starter like Bind apparently runs a hole in the wind, then it is logical to look toward the horses who finished behind him for validation of the big figure. But when the horses who finished behind him all have scant form that is uncertain at best, then the best thing you can do is wait until horses out of the race in question run back. Their subsequent performances will either confirm the big Beyer, or bring it into even greater question.

It’ll be at least a month before the question is answered. Until then, enjoy:

Posted in Racing on February 24, 2011 / Tagged Beyer Speed Figures, Big Figs, Bind, Debuts, Fair Grounds, Speed Figures, The Sheets