Speed Figures
No Equal
As good as Frankel’s offspring may be, they’ll likely never be as good as him:
Curiously, Frankel appears doomed not to produce a son or daughter who is superior to him. The Racing Post’s bloodstock expert, Tony Morris, writes: “No horse rated 138 has ever sired a horse rated 138 or above. Frankel may well get plenty of good runners, and I hope he does, but I can guarantee he will never sire his equal; he is the ceiling, and regression to the mean dictates that all his stock will be inferior to him.”
This is probably also true of Beyer speed figures. Has a horse who has peaked at 120 or above ever sired an equal? Ghostzapper topped out at 128 (in the 2004 Iselin Handicap at Monmouth Park); Contested and Hunters Bay, two of his best progeny, certainly haven’t come close to such a number.
Re: Ghostzapper, his 2004 Breeders’ Cup Classic win is remembered as part of the Hello Race Fans’ Three Great Moments BC series.
Oh, Hey …
Kentucky Confidential returns for Kentucky Derby week on Sunday.
Speaking of the Derby, this year’s historical criteria spreadsheet is running a little late, but can be found here next week. [5/2/12 UPDATED! Now with post positions, equipment changes, jockey changes …]
The Spaceman is a little more on the ball: Gene Kershner is out with his annual contender spreadsheet, which includes info like historical post position stats. (That’s the kind of stuff that can really help you geek out.) Bonus: He tracked down the saddlecloth colors for this year’s Derby AE list.
A couple of weeks ago, Mike Watchmaker wrote about the decline in triple-digit Beyer speed figures in Derby prep races. Bodemeister did get a 108 for the Arkansas Derby (see all the prep race results), but this year’s Derby prospects haven’t reversed the trend I posted about last year.
This Again?
OMG:
“They’ve turned the Kentucky Derby into a guessing game,” [Thoro-Graph proprietor Jerry Brown] fumed. “The introduction of synthetic tracks has created mass confusion among handicappers. In the Derby, you’re left to guess whether a horse can handle dirt after running on synthetics.
“This is an absurd situation to create for people who bet the game seriously. It’s tough enough to beat it with good information and rational thinking, but now you have situations where it turns a race into pure guesswork.”
Actually, the synthetic-to-dirt surface switch seems to be one of the more predictable elements in handicapping the Kentucky Derby in recent years.
1:30 PM Addendum: Dean smartly notes on Pull the Pocket that when it comes to assessing surface changes, handicapping principles still apply, but “the questions you have to analyze just might be a little different.”
R High Figure
As measured by the speed figure makers, the Kentucky Derby field may be “solid, competitive … and slow,” but there’s a dominant figure in the Oaks.
Speaking of figures …
“Frankel’s performance can only be described as awesome,” said the official BHA handicapper for milers, apparently as awed as everyone else watching Frankel cheerfully gut the field running behind him from the start in the 2000 Guineas (replay). “He destroyed the others, not himself,” said trainer Henry Cecil. At the end what impressed almost as much as the ease with which the undefeated colt won was how hard his rivals had to run to even keep him in view. Timeform gave Frankel a provisional rating of 142, the third best ever; the Racing Post rated him 133, the highest ever on that scale.
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Jessica Chapel writes and edits in Massachusetts. Railbird is a Thoroughbred horse racing blog published from June 2004 to July 2019. More / Contact
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