JC / Railbird

Speed Figures

Derby Day Notes

Untapable gets a Beyer speed figure of 107 for her Kentucky Oaks victory, and a TimeformUS figure of 114, numbers that put her in the same company as Kentucky Derby starters California Chrome and Wicked Strong in their final preps. When the “absolutely fabulous” filly makes her next start, the $4 she paid to win as the favorite on Friday is going to look like big money.

Early wagering on the Kentucky Derby has California Chome as the 2-1 favorite, with 27% of the $3.9 million win pool as of 10:00 AM. My picks in the race are California Chrome – Medal Count – Samraat. See who the Hello Race Fans team likes in all of today’s stakes races at Churchill. Good luck!

It’s not only Derby day, it’s opening day at Suffolk Downs, MAYBE FOR THE LAST TIME EVER, as every notice about the start of the 2014 meet points out. First post is 2:15 PM. Top rider Tammi Piermarini has mounts in eight races.

Posted in Racing on May 3, 2014 / Tagged Kentucky Derby, Kentucky Oaks, Speed Figures, Suffolk Downs, Untapable

The CC-BB Connection

Dick Jerardi on this year’s likely Kentucky Derby favorite:

Go back six years. Other than the experience factor (it’s hard to believe that California Chrome has run 10 times …), I see Big Brown all over again, a really good horse against a far less talented and inconsistent group.

The same thought has crossed my mind. For a refresher, here’s how the 2008 Kentucky Derby field stacked up, Beyer speed figure-wise, in their final two preps and then in the Derby (listed below in order of finish):

Big Brown’s double 106-106 stood out then, and stands out now, much as California Chrome’s 107-108 Beyers do this year:

For comparison, I included the TimeformUS figures for the last two races of the top eight Kentucky Derby points leaders. On that scale, California Chrome is not the topper to date, but his figures are both consistent and easily put him within range of the “typical” TimeformUS winning Derby figure of 115. If you were only handicapping the Derby with ratings, California Chrome looks like a worthy favorite whichever numbers you use. But Brian Nadeau has a few reasons for why you might want to consider some other factors.

Posted in Racing on April 10, 2014 / Tagged Big Brown, California Chrome, Derby Preps, Derby Prospects, Kentucky Derby, Speed Figures

The Consensus and the Contrarian

A week before the Preakness Stakes, the Baltimore Sun considers the question of why modern-day contenders in Triple Crown races may be slower than past generations. Thoro-Graph founder Jerry Brown disagrees that they are:

Brown’s studies have found that track surfaces are significantly different than they were in the 1970s, with as much as an inch more cushioning and more sand as opposed to hardened clay.

“It’s like they’re running in a sandbox,” he said of contemporary racehorses.

Accounting for this difference, Brown concludes that many of the most impressive runs in Triple Crown and other races have come in recent years.

In Brown’s view, if Orb could be sent back to the 1970s, “the colt would likely be 8-10 lengths faster than Triple Crown competitors from that era.”

One theory, glancingly mentioned in the Sun piece, is that elite 3-year-olds might be slower because they’re underworked, but the work patterns of recent Kentucky Derby winners don’t suggest that’s a major factor, at least, not when looking for a correlation with Beyer speed figures. Orb (104) worked 12 times at an average distance of four furlongs between the start of the year and the Kentucky Derby; 2012 Derby winner I’ll Have Another (101) worked 11 times at an average distance of 6.25 furlongs. While Orb and IHA are outliers in distance, they’re not in number of works, which, going back to 1998, ranged from seven (Animal Kingdom, 2011; Big Brown, 2008; Smarty Jones, 2004) to 14 (Street Sense, 2007; Giacomo, 2005; Funny Cide, 2003; Real Quiet, 1998). The average distance for all was five furlongs. The highest Beyer in the period covered went to Monarchos (116), who had four prep races and nine works at an average distance of 4.75 furlongs. The lowest went to Giacomo (100), who had three prep races and 14 works at an average distance of 5.5 furlongs.

Posted in Racing on May 11, 2013 / Tagged Jerry Brown, Kentucky Derby, Race Times, Speed Figures, Thoro-Graph, Triple Crown