Railbird 2004–2019

Speed Figures

Maclean’s Debut

It’ll be interesting to see what Maclean’s Music does in his second career start, after setting freakish fractions of :21.24, :43.48, and 1:07.44 in his debut at Santa Anita on Saturday. And what a Beyer speed figure — handicapper Andy Serling tweeted earlier today that the colt was given “the highest debut Beyer ever … 114.” ThoroTimes reporter Jeff Lowe added a bit of pedigree context to the number, noting that Maclean’s dam, “Forest Music, ran a similar race first-time out.” Put the Distorted Humor colt on your watch list — he may never run so well again, but the odds are good this one’s a serious racehorse.

(Replay via Hello Race Fans.)

Posted in Racing on March 21, 2011 / Tagged Debuts, Fast Fractions, Maclean's Music, Santa Anita, Speed Figures

The Factor’s Figure

A preliminary Beyer speed figure of 103 for The Factor in the Rebel Stakes, the sole graded Kentucky Derby prep this weekend. As DRF Derby tweeted, that figures ties “with Soldat for best Beyer by a 2011 3-year-old going mile or longer.” Soldat just happens to be the other War Front colt on the Derby trail, casting doubt on claims by pedigree handicappers that The Factor can’t get the Derby distance. Count me among the skeptical, but on the matter of pace, not breeding. The Derby isn’t kind to front-runners.

Trainer Bob Baffert said that the April 16 Arkansas Derby is a likely next start, but that all options are open to The Factor. “I could go anywhere. He’s nominated everywhere. You never know where I’m going to go.”

Mike Watchmaker favorably compares the Rebel to the Azeri Stakes, impressively won by Havre de Grace: “… you can argue that The Factor had the more demanding trip, and yet still ran almost as fast as Havre de Grace.”

Posted in Racing on March 20, 2011 / Tagged Breeding, Derby Pedigrees, Derby Preps, Derby Prospects, Soldat, Speed Figures, The Factor

Thursday Notes

Jaycito returned to the track this morning for the first time since his runner-up effort in the San Felipe last Saturday. He’ll be getting blinkers on again in the Santa Anita Derby, reports Steve Haskin, “after losing his focus a bit while apparently bored being at the back of the pack …” The San Felipe was the first career start the colt, my PDI #2 #4, made without blinkers. “I love the way he took dirt and settled well off the pace,” said trainer Bob Baffert replying to an emailed inquiry about Jaycito. “He will improve more next time.”

Dick Jerardi defuses angst about Uncle Mo’s so-so Timely Writer speed figure (DRF+): “It only went down that way because of the way the race was run, something that does happen in Beyer World, but not all that often.” [TT reports a Ragozin number of 4 for Uncle Mo, adjusted for the slow pace.]

Colin’s Ghost wonders whether a Triple Crown winner will appear again.

A potential rivalry? “Whether Premier Pegasus will be the one to push Uncle Mo and give us an incredible rivalry is open to debate,” writes Bob Ehalt. “Maybe he’s another Sunday Silence, or maybe he’s another Buzzards Bay.”

Churchill Downs could install the Trakus system in time for the spring meet, putting an end to the occasional Kentucky Derby chart error.

Posted in Racing on March 17, 2011 / Tagged Churchill Downs, Derby Preps, Derby Prospects, Jaycito, Speed Figures, Trakus, Uncle Mo

High-Class Runners

Via Thoroughbred Times, an academic study confirms that higher-class racemares produce higher-class offspring. (Interesting, and must-reading for anyone doing late-night kitchen-table broodmare research.) Faster mares, stakes winners or not, also produced above-average foals. Using Equibase speed ratings, the University of Louisville researchers found, “Speed is the breeder’s friend…. comparing speedy dams to slower dams reveals that the speed of the dam is highly statistically significant …”

Posted in Breeders/Breeding on March 2, 2011 / Tagged Broodmares, Research, Speed Figures, Speed Industrial Complex, Statistics

So Good It’s Bad

Bind’s super-impressive Saturday debut earns super-figures:

Bind earned a Beyer Speed Figure of 105 for his performance and a Ragozin Data performance figure of 1 1/4, which is so good it’s bad, according to Len Friedman, a partner in Len Ragozin’s The Sheets.

“The history is that it’s a negative, not a positive,” Friedman said Wednesday. “It’s more likely to affect him negatively, but who knows, maybe [Bind] is another Uncle Mo.”

And a bit of skepticism from Mike Watchmaker:

… when a first time starter like Bind apparently runs a hole in the wind, then it is logical to look toward the horses who finished behind him for validation of the big figure. But when the horses who finished behind him all have scant form that is uncertain at best, then the best thing you can do is wait until horses out of the race in question run back. Their subsequent performances will either confirm the big Beyer, or bring it into even greater question.

It’ll be at least a month before the question is answered. Until then, enjoy:

Posted in Racing on February 24, 2011 / Tagged Beyer Speed Figures, Big Figs, Bind, Debuts, Fair Grounds, Speed Figures, The Sheets