JC / Railbird - Statistics

Statistics

Statistically Significant

With two years of data in the Equine Injury Database, the Jockey Club is out today with updated fatality rates. The overall rate declined to 2.0 per 1000 starts from the 2.04 reported earlier this year. By surface, the rates are 2.14 on dirt (unchanged), 1.74 on turf, and 1.55 on synthetics (down from 1.78):

Parkin noted that the change in the overall fatality rate stemmed from cumulative two-year data that revealed a statistically significant difference in the prevalence of fatality on both turf and synthetic surfaces versus dirt. The difference in the prevalence of fatality between synthetic and turf surfaces was not statistically significant.

Confirms the impression that synthetic surfaces are safer (although the usual caveats apply re: uncertainty of factors such as new track bases, improved vet checks, anecdotal reports of increased non-fatal hind injuries, etc.).

12:55 PM Update: More from Thoroughbred Times: “… horses racing on a synthetic surface were 27.6% less likely to break down …“

Posted in Racing on December 15, 2010 / Tagged Equine Injury Database, Fatalities, Jockey Club, Statistics, Synthetic Surfaces, Track Surfaces

Something New

Or why the 2010 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile isn’t an easy race to handicap: Seven of the 11 pre-entered are Grade 1 or Group 1 winners. Eight of the 11 won their last start. Four are undefeated*. Three of the five American G1 winners won their G1 race off their maiden race. One broke his maiden winning a G1. All will be trying something new, whether two turns or a dirt surface. And the rock solid favorite? Said trainer Todd Pletcher, “Iâ€™m still worried about the four-week turnaround for … Uncle Mo and wish there was another week …“

Posted in Racing on October 29, 2010 / Tagged Breeders' Cup, Buzz Babies, Juveniles, Noted, Predicting an Upset, Statistics, Uncle Mo