JC / Railbird

Statistics

Dwindling by Decade

Striking chart from Steven Crist documenting the declining number of average starts made by Horses of the Year from 1960 to 2009.

One thing that jumps out is that the average number of starts for HOTYs as a group doesn’t deviate significantly from the average number of starts for all runners in those decades, with the exception of the 1990s, when the average number of starts was 9.2 for HOTYs to 7.7 for all. Was there something about that era that made elite horses more likely to run?

Posted in Racing on September 19, 2010 / Tagged Statistics

Feeling Insecure

Nick Kling on the closing of the detention barn:

In an attempt to sway bettors in their favor, barn opponents alleged it had no deterrent effect. However, that belies several examples of success from the security barn.

The most glaring was the case of a trainer known for winning at a high percentage at every venue. The instant the security barn opened this person’s New York success fell off the table. The stable continued to win 25 percent everywhere else, less than half that in New York.

Coincidence?

In the past four years, the New York entries from this barn have been fewer than half the number from the final five months of 2005…. This outfit has had ZERO New York starters in 2010.

7/19/10 Addendum/Edit: Trainer Rick Dutrow, one of the reasons for the detention barn? “They didn’t trust me, man.” (Not the case, says Hayward.)

Posted in Racing on July 16, 2010 / Tagged Detention Barn, Horsemen, Integrity, New York, Statistics

Returning Champions

March 30, 2019 Update: Hello, and thanks for visiting. If you’ve landed on this page via Horse Racing Datasets, or after reading “The Skeptical Handicapper,” by Barry Meadow, please note that while the post below was published in 2010, the spreadsheets referred to have been updated through 2017. You can view the current Google Doc or download an Excel file.

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Noting that Kelso went to post as the favorite in four out of five of his returns as reigning Horse of the Year, commenter o_crunk remarked:

It makes me wonder if returning champions who go off favored in their return beat the average win percentage of favorites?

It turns out that, yes, favored returning champions do beat the average.

Champions from 1971-2008 (excluding steeplechase horses) made 210 first starts back the year after being honored, going to post favored in 177 of those races (84%) and winning 105 times (59%), a rate well above the standard 33.3% (or the 2009 average of 36.6%) As usual, the public is astute: All returning champions averaged odds of .97-1, but favored returning champions averaged odds of .68-1. Betting $2 to win on each favored champion would have returned $321.10 $285 to $354 wagered.

(View the spreadsheet/download the spreadsheet.)

A few observations based on quick analysis:

Thirty-nine champions returned in ALW/AOC company, winning 26 (66%) of those races. No champion not favored — with the exception of 2008 juvenile champion Midshipman, returning in a 2009 Belmont AOC — won at this level.

Fifty-two champions returned in ungraded stakes, winning 30 (57%) at average odds of .84-1. Only two, out of five, not favored won, but betting $2 to win on those five would have returned $13.20 to $10 wagered.

Most champions returned in graded stakes, winning 49 (41%) of 119 starts. Of the 98 that were favored, 44 won (45%) at average odds of .80-1.

Including Rachel Alexandra, returning Horses of the Year since 1971 (see chart below) made 20 starts. Favored in 19 races, they won 15 (79%) at average odds of .40-1. Betting only favored HOTYs would have returned $41.40* for $38.

*Only with a little luck would a player be on the plus side. John Henry, the highest-priced favored returning Horse of the Year, finished second in the 1982 Santa Anita Handicap and was bumped to first by the disqualification of Perrault. If the results had stood, favored come-back HOTYs would have won 14 (74%) out of 19 starts and returned $36.80 for $38.

Posted in Racing on March 22, 2010 / Tagged Betting, Champions, Favorites, First Starts, Horse of the Year, Racing History, Statistics