Statistics
Astounding
Nick Kling delves into trainer Rudy Rodriguez’s first-year numbers:
Because of this lucrative pipeline, Rudy has compiled one of the most phenomenal statistics I’ve ever seen. Horses making their first start for the Rodriguez barn after a straight trainer change have won 15 of 29 starts, a celestial 52 percent. In addition, Rudy has hit first-time out with 8 of 22 claimed horses. That is a 36 percent strike rate.
Rodriguez’s win rate is 30% for the year, 35.7% at Belmont since the start of the fall meet. He’s in the money 65% for the year, 69% at Belmont.
Digital Trends
From Thoroughbred Times, at the 2010 Keeneland September sale:
Since every sales company’s catalogs, including Keeneland’s, have been available in portable document format (PDF) online for several years, it has long been possible to download entire catalogs to computers, but Apple Inc.’s new iPad as well as other tablet computers offer new possibilities to anyone who might feel overburdened by the burgeoning tools of the Thoroughbred trade….
“It improves the workflow,†Sonbol continued. “Before, I had to wait on all these paper reports, people looking at horses, vet reports. With this and the internet you can get everything updated on the go. I have my own private database as well, and it links to a server system so you can really speed up your workflow.â€
From Sports Business Journal, on advances in player analysis:
Arguably the most dramatic advance within player analysis has not been within the number crunching itself, but the ability to take the research anywhere and access it through a simple touchscreen. Apple’s iPad tablet device, which sold more than 3 million units in just 90 days following its April debut, is now a must-have business tool for dozens of GMs across the major sports leagues.
“The iPad has been huge for us,†said Jed Hoyer, Padres general manager. The club’s work with TruMedia, which features iPad functionality in its analytics system, derived from Boston, where both Hoyer and TruMedia Chief Executive Rafe Anderson previously worked together for the Red Sox. “You’re really not going to carry a laptop into the ballpark, so having the wealth of data right at your fingertips is a huge convenience, certainly while you’re on the road.â€
The data-everywhere trend is only going to extend to sports consumers.
Equibase, which has started taking seriously growing demand for mobile content, earlier this week added the Racing Yearbook, which first appeared earlier this month as an iPhone app, to its website. The online Yearbook includes charts for the year’s graded stakes, replays, and horse profiles, and while it’s not quite Racing Post breezy to use (you can’t click on horse’s name in a chart to get to a profile, for instance), it is a nice step forward in making more racing information available.
Keeneland Gains
The two-week Keeneland September yearling sale closed on Sunday, and to the relief of those involved in the business of breeding and selling horses, it closed with gains. “I mean, you have to be happy with it overall,” a consignor told the Blood-Horse, “considering everyone was going into it with grim prospects.” Reports the Thoroughbred Times:
Total sales, average price, and median all rose compared with the 2009 September sale, and the buy-back rate improved from 27.5% to 26.7%. Keeneland reported 3,059 yearlings as sold from 4,174 offered for $198,257,900, a 3.3% increase from $191,869,200 in total sales a year ago.
“It wasn’t a home run,” notes the Daily Racing Form. “But the Keeneland September yearling sale … posted solid returns that may have signaled that the bloodstock bust is over.” And it did so with sharply reduced spending by the Maktoums, points out the Paulick Report.
Whew. Everyone feeling a little more hopeful now?
Of the young sires, Bernardini was the standout, with 31 yearlings selling for an average of $199,323, a gross of nearly $6.2 million (numbers via). While I haven’t missed noticing that Bernardini’s first crop runners have been doing exceptionally well, I only noticed yesterday that he’s already an omnisurface sire, with winners on dirt, turf, and synthetics. His offspring have also either won or placed in group or graded stakes on all three surfaces. Interesting.
Is it too early to start talking about possible 2011 buzz babies? Here’s a 2009 filly to watch for, a half-sister to Zenyatta by Bernardini.
Dwindling by Decade
Striking chart from Steven Crist documenting the declining number of average starts made by Horses of the Year from 1960 to 2009.
One thing that jumps out is that the average number of starts for HOTYs as a group doesn’t deviate significantly from the average number of starts for all runners in those decades, with the exception of the 1990s, when the average number of starts was 9.2 for HOTYs to 7.7 for all. Was there something about that era that made elite horses more likely to run?
Feeling Insecure
Nick Kling on the closing of the detention barn:
In an attempt to sway bettors in their favor, barn opponents alleged it had no deterrent effect. However, that belies several examples of success from the security barn.
The most glaring was the case of a trainer known for winning at a high percentage at every venue. The instant the security barn opened this person’s New York success fell off the table. The stable continued to win 25 percent everywhere else, less than half that in New York.
Coincidence?
In the past four years, the New York entries from this barn have been fewer than half the number from the final five months of 2005…. This outfit has had ZERO New York starters in 2010.
7/19/10 Addendum/Edit: Trainer Rick Dutrow, one of the reasons for the detention barn? “They didn’t trust me, man.” (Not the case, says Hayward.)
Returning Champions
March 30, 2019 Update: Hello, and thanks for visiting. If you’ve landed on this page via Horse Racing Datasets, or after reading “The Skeptical Handicapper,” by Barry Meadow, please note that while the post below was published in 2010, the spreadsheets referred to have been updated through 2017. You can view the current Google Doc or download an Excel file.
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Noting that Kelso went to post as the favorite in four out of five of his returns as reigning Horse of the Year, commenter o_crunk remarked:
It makes me wonder if returning champions who go off favored in their return beat the average win percentage of favorites?
It turns out that, yes, favored returning champions do beat the average.
Champions from 1971-2008 (excluding steeplechase horses) made 210 first starts back the year after being honored, going to post favored in 177 of those races (84%) and winning 105 times (59%), a rate well above the standard 33.3% (or the 2009 average of 36.6%) As usual, the public is astute: All returning champions averaged odds of .97-1, but favored returning champions averaged odds of .68-1. Betting $2 to win on each favored champion would have returned $321.10 $285 to $354 wagered.
(View the spreadsheet/download the spreadsheet.)
A few observations based on quick analysis:
Thirty-nine champions returned in ALW/AOC company, winning 26 (66%) of those races. No champion not favored — with the exception of 2008 juvenile champion Midshipman, returning in a 2009 Belmont AOC — won at this level.
Fifty-two champions returned in ungraded stakes, winning 30 (57%) at average odds of .84-1. Only two, out of five, not favored won, but betting $2 to win on those five would have returned $13.20 to $10 wagered.
Most champions returned in graded stakes, winning 49 (41%) of 119 starts. Of the 98 that were favored, 44 won (45%) at average odds of .80-1.
Including Rachel Alexandra, returning Horses of the Year since 1971 (see chart below) made 20 starts. Favored in 19 races, they won 15 (79%) at average odds of .40-1. Betting only favored HOTYs would have returned $41.40* for $38.
*Only with a little luck would a player be on the plus side. John Henry, the highest-priced favored returning Horse of the Year, finished second in the 1982 Santa Anita Handicap and was bumped to first by the disqualification of Perrault. If the results had stood, favored come-back HOTYs would have won 14 (74%) out of 19 starts and returned $36.80 for $38.
Links for 2010-03-11
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"Speaking on condition of anonymity, highly placed industry sources are telling HRI there is no way Monmouth Park can reasonably expect to double its handle, something it would need to do to remain viable, given a purse structure that will distribute an average $1-million daily." As long as New Jersey is experimenting, why not court bettors as aggressively as connections? Slash takeout, offer free data, target whales.
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A bit of candor: "If this is the death for the small horsemen, it’s because he doesn’t have the kind of horse that America wants to bet on."
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"The goal is simple: to replicate the company's smashing success in the financial world, where the $1,500-a-month Bloomberg terminals are in many ways the lifeblood of the industry, into the sports world. Bloomberg is starting with baseball. The company has just launched its fantasy product, which costs $31.95 for the year." Watching with interest …
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More details from the December 2009 deal announcement: "For the MLBAM-Bloomberg product being sold to MLB teams, Bloomberg will take MLBAM’s real-time statistical feed from every game, as well as location-based data already being developed in partnership with Sportvision, and apply an almost limitless amount of analytical tools." Neat! Visuals (via).
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"Here’s my point: businesses don’t get to pick the timetable for when their preferred model takes a permanent dirt nap. It’s insane to me that these businesses’ fans see this so much more clearly than their actual stakeholders do. The fans want desperately to see these places stay alive, and many … pay tons of actual cash … to support that."
Another Saratoga First
Congratulations to Linda Rice on securing the 2009 Saratoga training title with 20 winners, one more than runner-up and six-time title holder Todd Pletcher, with one race remaining in the meet. The honor is a first for the conditioner, who started her stable in 1987 and currently has 50 horses, and for racing history — Rice is the first woman to win a training title at Saratoga or, it’s believed, at any major thoroughbred track.
Final numbers below:
A couple things to note about the stats, not least how well Rice did with a smaller barn largely filled with NY-bred turf horses. She sent out slightly more than half as many starters as Pletcher and yet still scored a win percentage almost twice as high, and did so with all of her wins coming in races carded for the grass. And while Pletcher placed and showed 28 and 20 times, Rice did so four and eight times — her stock was well spotted and ready, for the most part. As for money, Pletcher earned considerably more, racking up purses totaling $1,403,043 (through September 6) compared to $784,779 for Rice, but on average, each Rice starter earned $11,053 compared to $10,961 for each Pletcher starter. Rice was also good to bettors, with an ROI of $2.84 and a median price of $7.20; Pletcher delivered a mere $1.39 and $6.70.
“Maybe if some people notice that I can make my horses effective with what I have, maybe I’ll get the opportunity to train better horses,” said Rice last week. Here’s hoping that after what she’s achieved this summer, and more than proving her abilities, the trainer gets the opportunity she seeks.
Mine That Bump
Kentucky Derby 2009 bump chart, from Charts and Graphs:
Created with ggplot2 for R. More from Learning R on its construction.
Mine That Bird’s rail dash looks no less improbable graphed, while Pioneerof the Nile’s even run looks better. Too bad there’s no Trakus data, which would make for a busier, but surely richer and more revealing, chart.
Trivia
Noticed while skimming the Derby PPs, updating the historical criteria chart …
– Since 2002, every Derby winner has worked a bullet in their penultimate or final workout; since 1998, eight of 11 winners have done so. (Kennedy, helpfully, has real stats on this.) This year, six starters have bullet works: Friesan Fire, Regal Ransom, I Want Revenge, Atomic Rain, Dunkirk, and Summer Bird. The last time Friesan Fire worked a bullet was before winning the Louisiana Derby; Dunkirk has worked three straight bullets since the Florida Derby. The anti-bullet? Pioneerof the Nile: In his four works at Santa Anita listed on the pps, every one was the fastest or second-fastest at the distance. His two works at Churchill were fourth and eleventh, both at five furlongs.
– The game of musical jockeys continued through Tuesday, ending with 10 rider changes — seven of those new pairings: Chocolate Candy (Mike Smith), Desert Party (Ramon Dominguez), General Quarters (Julien Leparoux), Mine That Bird (Calvin Borel), Mr. Hot Stuff (John Velazquez), Nowhere to Hide (Shaun Bridgmohan), Flying Private (Robby Albarado). That’s the most since 2003, when six horses, all longshots, went to the post with new riders. Between 2003-2008, 22 horses, none at final odds of less than 10-1, started with new riders on Derby day. Of those, none won, and only two — Bluegrass Cat, second in 2006, and Imperialism, third in 2004 — finished in the money.
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Jessica Chapel writes and edits in Massachusetts. Railbird is a Thoroughbred horse racing blog published from June 2004 to July 2019. More / Contact
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