JC / Railbird

Thunder Snow

More Thunder Snow

Or, as I like to call him now, Thunder Bronco.

Jon White really regrets picking him to win the Kentucky Derby:

I am very glad that Thunder Snow was found to have no injuries. However, considering he was reported to be okay physically after a vet examined him, I can’t help thinking that perhaps what he also needs is to be examined by a psychiatrist. I’m even willing to join him on an adjoining coach. Because I certainly feel like I was out of my mind for betting some of my hard-earned money on a colt at odds of 16-1 who acted like a complete goofball on the sport’s biggest stage.

I understand the feeling, although I’m more chagrined that I put down a little flyer on J Boys Echo a couple of minutes before the race, swayed by his post parade appearance, 46-1 odds, and trainer Dale Romans’ pocket square. (Romans was dressed to win, but sartorial optimism is not a solid indicator …)

Tom Durkin had a run-in with the rambunctious Snow in the tunnel:

“The race starts and I’m watching it on TV,” Durkin said. “The horses kind of thunder past and I can’t really see anything. Then there’s this great commotion and people are yelling, ‘Get out of the way. Get out of the way.’ They open up the pole on the gap that leads into the tunnel and in comes Thunder Snow with the outrider. He’s crazed, and he basically pinned me up against wall of the tunnel. I am afraid of horses. I make no bones about that. He’s wheeling his ass end around and then I had to push him out of the way so he doesn’t kick me in the head. It was scary.”

According to the Churchill Down notes from earlier this week, Thunder Snow slunk out of Louisville on Tuesday afternoon, “[headed] for Huntsville, Alabama, where he would catch a flight to England.”

Posted in Racing on May 12, 2017 / Tagged Kentucky Derby, Thunder Snow, Triple Crown

Pletcher’s Dream Derby

Photo: Churchill Downs/Coady Photography

When I said that I was looking for Thunder Snow to surprise in the Kentucky Derby, I didn’t expect that the surprise would be him bouncing out of the gate and giving the grandstand a bucking bronco show. (Good work, Christophe Soumillon, staying on.) The colt is okay — he spent the race in the paddock, checked out sound by the vets, and walked back to the barn, where he presumably enjoyed a bath and dinner.

Thunder Snow might not have liked the muddy track or the crowd. It could have been that his saddle pinched or that he was channeling his sire. “All I can say at this moment in time Thunder Snow is fine,” tweeted his exercise rider, Daragh O’Donohoe, afterwards. “We are totally dumbstruck at what’s happened, sorry.” Hey, no apologies needed — if anyone has a right to feel badly about what happened, it’s the team that traveled with him this week.

So, about the Kentucky Derby winner — Always Dreaming went to post as the 9-2 favorite, paying $11.40 to win the Derby with a final time of 2:03.59 on a track officially described as “Wet Fast (Sealed).” He earned a Beyer speed figure of 102 and a TimeformUS figure of 123 for the effort.

The start was poor, at least for Irish War Cry and the other contenders he bumped hustling for position coming out of the auxiliary gate. “Irish War Cry bore in at the break initiating a chain reaction of trouble,” says the chart (PDF). “J Boys Echo forced in and jostled between foes soon after the start … Irap was bumped when a victim of the melee soon after the break.”

Always Dreaming avoided all of the trouble, breaking well from stall five. You can see in the replay that rider John Velazquez puts him in a plum spot from the start, although the Churchill Downs camera crew unfortunately cuts away to a shot from behind the gate at exactly the moment the bell rings. State of Honor, the second-longest shot at 54-1, set the early pace, running the first half in :46.53, with Always Dreaming settling in just behind. He takes the lead by a head at the six-furlong mark and wins by 2 3/4 lengths:

Velazquez described the trip like so:

He got into a good rhythm right away. Once I was going forward, for the first time, I was happy where I was. And so the other horse, obviously, showed some speed. So I let him go into the first turn … he was going really well. That’s all I did, just waiting for the competition. They were pressing a little bit. After that, the quarter pole, when I asked him, he switched the lead and got down. And he started running really nice. I was very happy when he switched down. And I felt the way he was running, I said, “They will have to run really fast to get him.”

Lookin at Lee, 33-1, finished second after getting a decent trip on the inside, while Battle of Midway, 40-1, came in third. Classic Empire, the 7-1 third favorite (the 4-1 morning line favorite), was fourth.

I admit, I didn’t know what to make of Always Dreaming in the days before the Derby. The Florida Derby winner was headstrong and fresh in his first gallop at Churchill Downs on April 26 (GIF above). He showed more control under Velazquez in his final work on April 28, breezing five furlongs in :59 3/5, but when he reverted to bad behavior during the following mornings, Pletcher switched in a new exercise rider and draw reins (this photo by Alex Evers offers a good view of the draw reins on him). Daily Racing Form clocker Mike Welsch noted after the tack change that Always Dreaming (DRF+):

… was clearly more subdued and cooperative during his 1 3/8-mile gallop than he had been on Monday … Always Dreaming had his head tucked and appeared resigned to the fate of training in the restrictive equipment … it was a good and much-improved morning for the highly regarded 3-year-old, whose demeanor from now through post time could go a long way in deciding the outcome of this year’s Derby.

Asked about the equipment change before the Derby, trainer Todd Pletcher said, “He’s been much more aggressive since he’s been here and I’m hoping it’s a sign he’s just ready to rock.” Well, now we know how that turned out.

Always Dreaming gave Pletcher his second Kentucky Derby win, making him one of 19 trainers to win the race more than once, and in the post-race press conference, he talked about what it meant to win with Velazquez:

I felt like Johnny and I needed one together as well.

We have had a great relationship for a long time now, and we have won a lot of races together. This one we hadn’t, and this is the one we wanted to win together. And I’m glad we could do it.

The trainer and rider have been partnered for 24 years; they shared a jubilant hug in the winner’s circle. And here’s another touching story related to Always Dreaming’s win, written before the colt was born: It’s about the saddle that has now been cinched onto five Kentucky Derby winners.

Always Dreaming will go to the Preakness. He ships to Pimlico on Tuesday.

Recaps:

Always Dreaming true in Kentucky Derby (Blood-Horse); Always Dreaming wins Kentucky Derby 2017 (Courier-Journal); On muddy track, Always Dreaming separates from pack to win Kentucky Derby (Sports Illustrated).

Odds and ends:

The top four were hard to separate before the Derby and that was reflected in the pools. Mike Battaglia made the 2016 juvenile champion, Classic Empire, the 4-1 morning line favorite coming into the Derby off a win in the Arkansas Derby, Always Dreaming and McCracken the 5-1 co-second favorites, and Irish War Cry the 6-1 third favorite. Bettors made Irish War Cry the 5-1 second favorite, then narrowly preferred Classic Empire over McCraken (6.80 to 6.90).

Wagering on the Kentucky Derby topped $137.8 million, a new record.

What?! The story behind Pletcher’s Derby beard:

He arrived sporting a goatee as steel gray as his close-cropped hair. When asked why, he told a story about being stared at by a woman at the airport.

“I know you,” he recalled her telling him. “You are D. Wayne Baffert.”

Mike Watchmaker on the Derby results: “Always Dreaming was tons the best winning the Derby. He was as deserving a winner as you will see … and all it takes to understand that is a simple consideration of pace.”

Last word on Thunder Snow’s Derby, from Godolphin executive John Ferguson: “One of the most extraordinary things any of us have ever seen.”

3:00 PM Addendum: Hindsight, etc. Insights from Pete Denk at THT into the split between Always Dreaming’s excellent work and his headstrong gallops:

@GallantFox1930 @thomasherding Loved the 4/28 work. Saw it as sign of continued IHD growth. Gallops were aggressive but he had perfect energy distribution in all his races

— Pete Denk (@petedenk) May 7, 2017

@GallantFox1930 @thomasherding It WaS a concern. But he had been controllable in all his races, with great energy distribution for an IHD horse. So we stuck with our read.

— Pete Denk (@petedenk) May 7, 2017

Posted in Racing on May 7, 2017 / Tagged Always Dreaming, Kentucky Derby, Thunder Snow, Triple Crown

Derby Day 2017

Kentucky Derby card picks are now up on Hello Race Fans. I’m all alone on the grid with Thunder Snow, who’s 17-1 in the early wagering. Contenders coming out of the UAE Derby don’t have a great record at Churchill Downs, but I like his post, his running style, and even that Godolphin didn’t ship him from Newmarket until last Sunday. He’s also getting Lasix for the first time. Every Derby trainer says they’re confident in their horse(s), and Saeed Bin Suroor is no exception, telling the Racing Post:

“I am very excited,” said Bin Suroor. “I have been waiting for this moment for a very long time to bring a horse with a big chance to run in the greatest race in America.”

I was also thinking a bit about the UAE Derby and why form in it hasn’t successfully translated at Churchill in the past. It used to be an outlier, timing-wise, being six weeks before the Kentucky Derby. But everyone is getting pushed back now — the Sunland Derby (Hence) and Spiral Stakes (Fast and Accurate) are six weeks out, the Florida Derby (Always Dreaming) is five weeks, and the rest of the final preps, with the exception of the Arkansas Derby, are four weeks. Horses entering the Derby on two preps have also become more common. I suspect that in terms of fitness, the UAE Derby’s place on the schedule is no longer quite as detrimental to Derby chances.

Look, it’s the Derby, and as Eric Banks writes in the New York Times today:

… no Derby seems to come out exactly as they expected in advance, which is the one, somewhat counterintuitive lesson provided by repeat exposure, year after year.

There’s something about every Kentucky Derby result that surprises. Maybe the contender from Dubai can deliver a little shock this year.

Posted in Racing on May 6, 2017 / Tagged Derby Picks, Kentucky Derby, Thunder Snow, Triple Crown