Triple Crown
Belmont Stakes 2015 Wrap
The crowd at Belmont Park celebrates. Credit: Chelsea Durand/NYRA
The Triple Crown winner isn’t sticking around — New York, at least. American Pharoah met the media, charmed the “TODAY” show audience, and boarded a van leaving Belmont Park around 7:30 AM, arriving back at Churchill Downs by 1:30 PM, less than 19 hours after he won the Belmont Stakes and became the 12th Triple Crown winner in American racing, the first in 37 years.
The first in 37 years.
Like a lot of horse racing fans, I don’t remember the last one. I’m not quite sure what to do with this one. He’s marvelous! It’s wonderful! The minutes before the race were nerve-wracking, the seconds it took him to cross the wire — 5 1/2 lengths ahead of runner-up Frosted — thrilling.
There is satisfaction in discovering that a Triple Crown is still possible.
“After seeing what we saw on Saturday,” writes Jason Gay, “can we all agree that stubborn old horse racing had this the right way all along?”
The Triple Crown just needed a racehorse who could take one of the hardest things we ask a young horse to do and make it look easy.
American Pharoah completed the 1 1/2-mile race in 2:26.65, and he did it by going to the lead and reeling off steady :24 quarters, running the first half in :48.31, the first six furlongs in 1:13.41, and the first mile in 1:37.99:
DRF incremental times above. View the official Equibase chart (PDF).
He was never pushed, never threatened. Materiality, tasked with keeping the 3-5 favorite honest on the front, was out of contention before the mile. Frosted looked like a challenger at the top of the stretch — for a stride. American Pharoah gave him no ground. He was going to get away with it all.
“I’m telling you,” said jockey Victor Espinoza afterwards, “in the first turn it was the best feeling I’ve ever had.” Watch the replay:
The 12th Triple Crown winner was given a Beyer speed figure of 105 for the Belmont Stakes. TimeformUS gave him a speed figure of 128. His figures are as consistent as his fractions — American Pharoah’s Preakness and Kentucky Derby Beyers were 102 and 105, his TFUS numbers 125 and 127.
Trainer Bob Baffert reported on Sunday morning that American Pharoah came out of the Belmont in good shape. “Looking at the horse today, he looked pretty darn good for a horse that just ran a mile and a half,” said Baffert. “He’s a tough horse. Today he looked like he could run back in three weeks.”
Per the NYRA press office notes, the plan is for the colt to race again:
“After we freshen him up, we have options,” said Baffert, who mentioned the Grade 1 Haskell Invitational at Monmouth, the Grade 2 Jim Dandy and the Grade 1 Travers Stakes at Saratoga Race Course, and a “little race” at Del Mar, most likely the Grade 1 Pacific Classic.
Jay Privman explains why he believes the Pacific Classic is likely: “it would certainly be an endorsement by Zayat of the return to dirt at Del Mar to run there this summer, and there’s no bigger ‘get’ right now than American Pharoah, who — remember — hasn’t raced in California this year. Yet.”
The Breeders’ Cup Classic at Keeneland is the goal for his final career start.
Recaps! Tim Layden recounts the Belmont Stakes and the weeks before, when the word chingon became code for the confidence of the American Pharoah camp … Joe Drape captures the moment the Triple Crown became real to the 90,000 at Belmont Park … Brendan Prunty writes about the build-up.
More recaps and reactions are bookmarked on this page; I’ll be adding to it.
Belmont Stakes Day 2015
There’s only one question today: Can American Pharoah win the Triple Crown?
The numbers are in his favor, Gary West writes:
The 11 Triple Crown winners emerged from crops that averaged 10,922 foals. The 13 horses since 1978 whose bids failed in New York came from crops that averaged 36,418 foals, and among so many, nobody’s talent was so superior that he could overcome circumstances and vicissitudes, as well as rivals. In 1970, on the other hand, 24,361 racehorses were foaled, and one of them was Secretariat. In 1974, Seattle Slew was in a crop of 27,586; and in 1975, Affirmed in a crop of 28,271.
Steve Haskin says he fits the profile of a Triple Crown winner.
Jon White has 10 reasons he will win (and five concerns).
Seven are lining up against American Pharoah in the Belmont Stakes gate. If he wins, he’ll have defeated 31 challengers, one fewer than War Admiral in 1937.
Picks for the Belmont Stakes card are up on Hello Race Fans.
Buck Up
Shying from picking American Pharoah? Dick Jerardi understands (DRF+):
The near Triple Crown misses have collectively psyched us all out. I definitely include myself in that group.
When you see Smarty Jones run maybe the best race of his life and get beat, and you see Big Brown get eased, and you see California Chrome get stepped on at the start, get trapped on the rail and get beat, you would not be human if you did not at least consider the history that also includes Spectacular Bid getting a ridiculous ride, Silver Charm doing everything but win, and Real Quiet winning for all but the final stride.
For sure! But the Belmont Stakes has also been a great race for playing against the favorite in recent years. The last post-time favorite to win was Afleet Alex in 2005, and only short-priced Union Rags (the second favorite to 3-2 Dullahan) in 2012 disturbs the string of double-digits since:
Winning favorites are indicated by a gray background.
For that matter, Curlin in 2007 was the last favorite to finish second.
American Pharoah is 3-5 on the morning line for the Belmont Stakes, which drew a field of eight, and if the public sticks to its Triple Crown wagering ways, it’ll be as “incorrigibly optimistic” as ever about his chances.
Root for history, bet for cashing.
6/5/15 Addendum: More on playing against from Ted McClelland:
If you want to go for an even bigger payoff, spend $84 to box all the challengers in the exacta…. In Triple Crown attempts since 1987, when the exacta was introduced, that strategy would have cost $1,284 and returned $5,119 — a 299 percent return.
6/8/15 Update: American Pharoah’s win added to the chart above. He’s the first favorite to win since Afleet Alex. His win pay is the lowest this century. The betting public looks pretty smart this year.
The Contrarian
“For the sake of racing, I hope he loses,†Wolfson said. “We talked last year about how I root for all of these old streaks in sports to never be equaled — DiMaggio’s 56-game hitting streak, John Wooden’s great run of victories, Rod Laver’s Grand Slams — I believe that the fact it’s been so long since we’ve seen a Triple Crown is why all these people care.â€
American Pharoah owner Ahmed Zayat wants the win, obviously:
“I want it for the fans,” he said. “They’ve been waiting for 37 years. The sport needs it. A sport without a star is not a sport. Imagine having basketball without Michael Jordan or LeBron [James]. I’m excited. I’m pumped.”
Hm … American racing isn’t exactly going without stars. Since 2009, we’ve had Rachel Alexandra (brilliant, and gamely campaigned), Zenyatta (whose mainstream crossover was the best since Barbaro, and without the tragic end), Wise Dan (beloved), and California Chrome (a star big enough that the racing programs of other countries want him). It’s probably better to think of Pharoah as a comet — win or lose on Saturday, he’ll be off the track by the end of the year, and possibly sooner. If he runs for the remainder of the season, he’ll likely have no more than another two or three starts — “limiting the possibility for large-scale marketing opportunities,” or for fans to get attached.
6/3/15 Addendum: Jerry Izenberg shares the sport needs a star perspective. “How can you have a major sport without a superstar?” So much emphasis gets placed on one horse becoming a name outside the game, and what that would mean for marketing and awareness. It’s wishful thinking.
Now, let’s swing back: “It is entirely plausible that a Triple Crown winner is the exact opposite of what horse racing ‘needs.’”
6/4/15 Addendum: Well, Zayat found a large-scale marketing opportunity — ESPN reports that Monster (the energy drink) has signed on for American Pharoah’s Triple Crown run, in what is “believed to be one of the largest single-horse sponsorship deals in history.” (“$5-million initial ask,” Ed DeRosa tweeted, noting he didn’t know the final sum.) There’ll be no publicity shots of Pharoah enjoying a Monster — the drink is loaded with caffeine. “A racehorse promoting a stimulant,” wrote Pull the Pocket, “that’s like Amgen sponsoring a long distance bike race.” That’s racing!
Spoiling
The field for the Belmont Stakes will be drawn on Wednesday, and challengers are lining up to spoil American Pharoah’s Triple Crown run.
“Weird things happen in the Belmont. Never duck one horse,” trainer Kenny McPeek texted the Churchill Downs press office on Friday, explaining why he was entering The Truth or Else. [10:10 AM Update: The Truth or Else is out of Saturday’s race with “filling in ankle.” The likely field is now nine eight.]
“I should probably run four,†said trainer Todd Pletcher, who plans to start three two — Carpe Diem Materiality and Madefromlucky. “[I]t’s a little bittersweet to have a horse in the race trying to beat [Pharoah],” said Materiality co-owner Gil Moutray. “We’re a spoiler and we like our horse.”
“I think I have a live long shot, and I think people might feel the same way in another week,” said trainer Nick Zito of his contender, Frammento.
Preakness runner-up Tale of Verve will also take a shot.
American Pharoah worked on Monday, going five furlongs in 1:00.20 (splits from Churchill Downs: 13, 25, 36.60, 48.60). Mike Welsch, getting him in 1:00.08, praised the move: “AP seemingly getting stronger the further he went while giving the appearance that he was just galloping the entire way.”
The only thing that’s easy about the Belmont six days out is imagining what the Pharoah camp is thinking right now: Good luck, spoilers.
Video of Pharoah’s five-furlong breeze:
6/1/15 Update: Reaction to American Pharoah’s Monday appearance: “One trainer who detailed all the reasons American Pharoah would not win the Triple Crown before he breezed said simply afterward, ‘I take it all back.’ Others said his coat looked shiny and he appeared to be in great shape.”
6/2/15 Addendum: Trainer Kiaran McLaughlin hopes to hear boos after the Belmont Stakes because Frosted has won. “You know I’m a racing fan too, and if we lose, I hope he wins for the Triple Crown, but once they go in the starting gate it’s all about your team and your own horse. We’re trying to win the race.”
About
Jessica Chapel writes and edits in Massachusetts. Railbird is a Thoroughbred horse racing blog published from June 2004 to July 2019. More / Contact
Elsewhere
Find Jessica on Pinboard and Instagram, Railbird on LibraryThing and Twitter.
Etc.
Links
Search
Boston Racing
Spreadsheets/Data
← Home
Copyright © 2000-2026 by Jessica Chapel. All rights reserved.