Uncle Mo
So-So Prospects
A couple of years ago, I was listening to one of the Road to the Roses teleconferences hosted by the NTRA each spring. Trainer Todd Pletcher was taking questions. In February, a well-bred 3-year-old from his barn had won a grass race impressively at Gulfstream, briefly sparking Kentucky Derby talk. A reporter asked about the colt. Pletcher replied, “Who?”
It was funny, but as I listened to the trainer smoothly make up for his startled first response, I realized he had said everything about how he perceived the colt’s potential, and it wasn’t anything to look forward to on the Derby Trail.
I was reminded of that call yesterday after Brethren won the Sam F. Davis at Tampa Bay Downs by four lengths as the 4-5 favorite. The final time was 1:45.07, for which Brethren was given a Beyer speed figure of 83. DRF Formulator gives his fractions as a steady :24+ per split. His final sixteenth was :6.87, and the way he drew off in the stretch was visually impressive.
For Pletcher, it was his fourth Davis win in five years, a Tampa record, but the trainer wasn’t in the winner’s circle. He watched the race from Gulftream, where he had two horses entered on Saturday afternoon, both in claiming races. “Obviously we have some things to work on at the gate but all in all I thought it was a great effort,” Pletcher told Mike Welsch.
A great effort isn’t Who?, and the trainer may not have been at Tampa for several reasons. Yet I’m getting a sense that, as a Kentucky Derby prospect, Brethren isn’t one to get too excited* about this season.
Mike Watchmaker has a less subjective reason to question Brethren’s Derby potential: “Brethren’s profoundly pedestrian preliminary Beyer of 83 in the Davis didn’t even match the pair of 84’s he earned last year.” The handicapper wasn’t any more impressed with the other two preps on Saturday, and Brad Free reports pessimism at Santa Anita after Tapizar’s dismal run.
Beyer speed figures of 93 and 90 for Silver Medallion in the El Camino Real at Golden Gate and Anthony’s Cross in the Robert B. Lewis at Santa Anita. Charts and replays via the updated Kentucky Derby prep schedule.
First-round Triple Crown nominations are out. Search the 364 nominees.
*The one everyone is excited about worked this morning. Uncle Mo breezed four furlongs in :47.45 in company with Stay Thirsty at Palm Meadows. “It was a tad quicker than we expected. We wanted him to go in :48 and change, but he did it effortlessly,” said Pletcher of the move.
Zenyatta Connections
Dazzling praise for Zenyatta’s 2-year-old half-sister by Bernardini:
“She has as much presence as any young horse I’ve ever been around,†Robinson said. “It scares me. She’s completely herself, very independent, but in a good way. She’s sweet, but not sugary. Very businesslike. She was definitely the dominant one, but in a kind way, with the other yearlings. I watched Zenyatta at Lane’s End several weeks ago when they first introduced her to the other maidens, and it’s the same thing. It’s not a kick-your-ass kind of dominance, but it’s like they just knew who the boss was. Eblouissante is very much that way.â€
Here’s a photo of Eblouissante from last summer, giving a look that’s very like her Horse of the Year sibling. She’ll go to trainer John Shirreffs later this year.
Uncle Mo is on Facebook and Twitter and owner Mike Repole credits Team Zenyatta. “I’ve always connected with products that connected with me.”
3/1/11 Update: Eblouissante now has her own Facebook fan page.
Feeling Feverish
The first installment of the Paulick Derby Index is up, and the top three horses are no surprise. Not that I can judge! I too made Uncle Mo #1. As for the consensus #3, Dialed In, I left him out, although I might not had I looked at the Holy Bull winner’s fractions per DRF Formulator before compiling my top 10. After a slow first quarter of :25.78 during which he fell more than 10 lengths off the lead, the colt ran the second quarter in a strikingly quick :21.58 and then finished faster than the rest of the field with a final quarter of :24.16. Speed and raw talent are certainly there, and I may have to concede after Dialed In’s next start (possibly in the Fountain of Youth) that dismissing him now was sheer contrarianism on my part. Re: my #10, that’s supposed to be Heron Lake, a Bernardini-sired Gulfstream maiden winner trained by Nick Zito, not any of the three Herons listed by Equibase, none 3-year-olds.
2/2/11 Addendum: “At this point, no one is saying that Dialed In is a good as the 2010 juvenile champion …” Nice to hear there’s a limit to the giddiness.
Thursday Notes
You’ve probably heard? Zenyatta will be bred to Bernardini. If you’re into nicks, it’s a match that gets an A++ or a B+, depending on methodology. And while the most anticipated foal of the 21st century hasn’t even been conceived yet (that’ll probably happen in February, if all goes as planned), it’s apparently not too early to think of names. (Bernyatta? Zendini?) I don’t know enough about breeding to call the mating conservative or not, but from a handicapping perspective, it’s an intriguing mix of flash and substance, class and speed. Bernardini’s first-crop runners were precocious and versatile juveniles; Zenyatta was sound through a three-year career and never faltered on track.
Early Kentucky Derby favorite Uncle Mo is listed as the 128-pound highweight on the 2010 Experimental Free Handicap, announced today by the Jockey Club. That’s the highest assignment since Favorite Trick was weighted 128 in 1997.
Boys at Tosconova will miss the Holy Bull at Gulfstream on Sunday. The Rick Dutrow trainee hasn’t seemed himself since a work on January 13. Santiva will also pass on the Holy Bull. The Kentucky Jockey Cup winner, just getting back into training, could make his first start of the year in the Fountain of Youth.
Recovered from the hind ankle injury that knocked him out of Saratoga and a fall campaign, Sovereign Default returns on Saturday at Gulfstream in race five, a seven-furlong allowance for 3-year-olds over the main track that drew seven starters. The colt attracted attention after winning his well-bet debut by two lengths at Belmont Park last July 15, a maiden race that yielded two next out winners in Stay Thirsty (who followed his maiden win with a second to Boys at Tosconova in the Hopeful) and Air Support (who won the Pilgrim Stakes).
I suppose this story’s good news is that 84 past-posters weren’t able to cash.
4:30 PM Addendum: Entries are now up for Sunday’s Holy Bull and Forward Gal Stakes. As often in recent years, the potential Oaks fillies look like a more interesting bunch, with Pocahontas Stakes winner Dancinginherdreams and Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies runner-up R Heat Lightning, both making their first starts since November, topping the seven-horse Forward Gal field. The Holy Bull drew nine, including Dialed In, Mucho Macho Man, and Major Gain.
Good News Sunday
Doug O’Neill reports Square Eddie is looking good after his first race in a year:
“He came out fantastic, legs ice cold, jogging sound at the shed row and ate up everything,” Santa Anita’s three-time training king said.
Nice to hear! The Donn could be next for ‘Eddie.
This is Todd Pletcher gushing about early Derby fave Uncle Mo:
“Yes, I think he will get better,” Pletcher said. “And it’s kind of scary to think about that.”
The famously cool trainer just can’t contain himself, can he?
Jerry Bossert’s a fan of the Belmont Café:
It’s amazing, but in a month the NYRA put together a better OTB than NYCOTB, which opened its first parlor in 1971.
Almost makes me wish I still lived in New York so I could check the place out.
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Jessica Chapel writes and edits in Massachusetts. Railbird is a Thoroughbred horse racing blog published from June 2004 to July 2019. More / Contact
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