JC / Railbird

Wood Memorial

Late Closers

Steve Haskin on pace and the Wood Memorial winner:

I’m not saying Verrazano is going to win the Kentucky Derby, and I’m not about to dissect his performance in the Wood other than to say he did show a new dimension regarding the ability to settle off the pace, and he did come home in splits of :23 4/5, :24, and :12 3/5, which not only are strong, but are fractions you see from late closers.

You can say the same about Vyjack, as Superterrific pointed out to me:

While Normandy Invasion was flashing a little more speed than either at the end, the winner and the show horse ran the same final fraction.

Posted in Racing on April 10, 2013 / Tagged Derby Preps, Derby Prospects, Fractions, Verrazano, Vyjack, Wood Memorial

No Comparison

Mike Watchmaker:

One thing that does bother me a little is how some folks have drawn an analogy between Uncle Mo losing in the Wood at 1-10, and Secretariat losing in the Wood at 1-5 in 1973. While Uncle Mo was the divisional champion at 2, Secretariat was not only divisional champion at 2, he was the first ever to be Horse of the Year at 2. Before he lost the Wood, Secretariat turned in scintillating victories in the Bay Shore and Gotham, running a mile in the latter in 1:33 2/5. And really, the only way Uncle Mo’s loss in the Wood could ever be analogous to Secretariat’s is if Uncle Mo goes on to sweep the Triple Crown, beats a superstar field of older horses in an invitational race in the fall, and then closes his campaign with two awesome romps in major turf stakes going 12 and 13 furlongs. Otherwise, it’s fantasy.

In other words, Mo wasn’t Secretariat before, and he’s not Secretariat now.

Posted in Racing on April 11, 2011 / Tagged Derby Preps, Derby Prospects, Secretariat, Uncle Mo, Wood Memorial

The Shake Up

So, Uncle Mo lost. Considering the self-flagellation, told-yas, schadenfreude, and hearsay diagnoses that flooded the web immediately after the race, you would think the Wood Memorial was The Greatest Trouncing in the History of American Turf, and not a 1 1/4-length defeat by the 1-10 favorite to Toby’s Corner and Arthur’s Tale, the second- and third-favorite respectively. (For that matter, the horse bet fourth, Norman Asbjornson, finished fourth. Aside from an excess of Mo-thusiasm, bettors pretty much got the Wood right.)

So, Mo can lose. And look remarkably unexceptional while doing so. After leading the field through a half in :47.98 and three-quarters in 1:12.28, the previously undefeated colt displayed neither fight nor interest when jockey John Velazquez asked him to pick things up in the stretch, running the final eighth in :12.88. Toby’s Corner closed quickly, finishing in :11.97. “Oh, I’m surprised. But no longer is [Uncle Mo] such a dominant force, and it just opens up the entire picture [for the Derby],” said winning trainer Graham Motion.

It would seem so. Less than four weeks to the Derby, and only the Blue Grass and Arkansas Derby are left now to make sense of this 3-year-old crowd, following Midnight Interlude’s upset in the Santa Anita Derby. By the margin of a head, he went from a maiden winner to G1 victor, giving trainer Bob Baffert a third Derby prospect. “The Kentucky Derby was once a horse race,” groused Bill Dwyre of yesterday’s results. “Now, it has become a crapshoot.”

In an era when conditioners seem to be competing on who can bring the freshest horse to the Derby, could it become anything but?

Trainer Todd Pletcher reported this morning, via text to Darren Rogers, that Uncle Mo will ship to Churchill Downs on April 18, which should help put to rest rumors that the former Derby favorite is out of contention. He’s expected to work twice before the Derby. How he trains will determine whether or not he starts, but it probably won’t answer the questions many were already asking about Uncle Mo’s light prep schedule. As Paul Moran writes:

Apparently, the Timely Writer Stakes at Gulfstream, a combination publicity stunt and public workout, was insufficient to propel Uncle Mo to a Grade I, even in the absence of proven Grade I company, which beyond the bowed favorite was lacking in the Wood. Almost certainly, the Wood will leave the light-bodied Uncle Mo short of an effective effort at 10 furlongs in Kentucky on the first Saturday of May.

That’s got to be the concern of anyone who backs him going forward. “We’ll see if we can get him prepared to step up,” Pletcher said this morning. “It was not a typical Uncle Mo performance, but I do not feel like the mile and an eighth was an issue.” Maybe the Wood was just the gut check he needed.

Beyer speed figures: 94 for Toby’s Corner and 92 for Uncle Mo in the Wood; 95 for Midnight Interlude in the Santa Anita Derby; 93 for Joe Vann in the Illinois Derby; 87 for Lilacs and Lace in the Ashland Stakes.

6:00 PM Addendum: “If not Mo, who?” That is the question this weekend.

Posted in Racing on April 10, 2011 / Tagged #Moenfreude, Ashland Stakes, Derby Preps, Derby Prospects, Lilacs and Lace, Midnight Interlude, Oaks Preps, Oaks Prospects, Santa Anita Derby, Toby's Corner, Uncle Mo, Wood Memorial

Hope Mo Loses?

Steve Haskin on the two-prep campaign era for Kentucky Derby prospects and the importance of at least one “gut check” before the big race:

Here is the kicker: of the four horses who have won the Derby off only two starts, three of them – Street Sense, Mine That Bird, and Super Saver — had at least one gut check, where they engaged in a head-to-head stretch battle. The only one who didn’t was Big Brown, who was, well, Big Brown, and who faced relatively weak fields in the Florida Derby and Kentucky Derby.

The Wood is Uncle Mo’s only chance to get dirty before May, and aside from Jaycito and Toby’s Corner, not many seem interested in facing the champion. A pity. If he were to lose, it might not be such a bad thing, writes Paul Moran:

If all this comes together, the month between the Wood and Derby will be an exciting time in New York…. An untimely defeat on April 9, though it may stun his supporters and connections and cool the fervor, may well serve Uncle Mo. Secretariat was upset by stablemate Angle Light in the Wood, leaving trainer Lucien Lauren if not the entire racing world dazed and speechless. Remember what happened after that?

Posted in Racing on March 22, 2011 / Tagged Derby Preps, Derby Prospects, Racing History, Triple Crown, Uncle Mo, Wood Memorial