JC / Railbird

Belmont Archive

New York State of Mind

Well, it was touch and go for awhile, but I’ve managed to convince the powers that be that our coverage of the Belmont Stakes just wouldn’t be the same without my insights. So, rather than watching Big Brown’s quest for history at Keeneland I’ll be live on the scene.
While I’m not a big fan of the racing-needs-a-Triple-Crown-winner line of thinking, I can say that a Triple Crown winner would help my business because more advertisers would want to be a part of the issues devoting to covering such a historic event.
Offshore gambling site Bodog sums up why I don’t think Big Brown winning the Triple Crown would be good for the sport: It lists odds on whether Big Brown will race past the Belmont Stakes. “Yes” is at 5-to-2 (+250) while “no” is at 1-to-4 (-400). That’s not a lot of confidence that we’ll see him in the Travers let alone in a showdown against Curlin.

Posted in Belmont on May 29, 2008

Wednesday Morning Notes

– The bird who chirped to Ernie that I preferred Divine Park over Commentator in the Met Mile had it right, although I profited little from the opinion, getting knocked out of a small pick three the leg before and missing the (logical in hindsight) $15.40 favorites’ exacta, cashing only a straight win bet on the 2-1 Kiaran McLaughlin trainee. I can’t claim any great handicapping insight: It seemed likely that Commentator would be pressured through torrid early fractions (as happened, with First Defence pushing the 6-5 favorite into first half fractions of :22.48 and :44.52) and Divine Park, coming off a superb win in the Westchester Handicap last month, seemed the obvious beneficiary in the stretch (as was the case, with the colt getting an ideal setup, closing in :26.94 into a final quarter timed in :27.30). I’ve also been partial to the son of Chester House since he debuted over the Aqueduct inner dirt two winters ago, and while Divine Park hasn’t given any sign he’s capable of brilliance — unlike the occasionally flashy Commentator, gallant in second — he has developed into a solid, game miler as a 4-year-old. The Met was Divine Park’s third straight win this year; a skeptical Mike Watchmaker reports a Beyer of 109 for the race (DRF+).
– Those wondering how seriously to take Big Brown’s latest quarter crack should take note of the recent success of another Ian McKinlay patient:

And trainer Shug McGaughey told the Times Union:

Good to know. So, if Big Brown loses the Belmont, the hoof is a handy excuse, but the reason may well be the distance or the rigors of pursuing the Triple Crown or anything else.
– Wagering security, just not a priority. Maybe the upcoming congressional hearings on horse racing should be expanded.

Posted in Belmont on May 28, 2008

Saturday Night Notes

– Nice handicapping by Ed, who alerted us yesterday to Monastic Springs in the seventh at Belmont this afternoon. Check out the head-on replay on Cal Racing and marvel at the rough stretch run the blinkered first-time starter had to survive to hit the wire on top. Steadied behind the two leaders as the field entered the stretch, Monastic Springs tried to move into the clear on the outside at the same time that eventual runner-up He Struck It Rich began drifting in the same direction, forcing Monastic Springs into tight quarters with Bob’s Star, who drifted slightly to the inside. Caught, the colt bulled through, causing bumping down the line, and was able to get up by a neck in the final yards, paying $27.80 for the win. An inquiry was conducted into the stretch run, but the stewards made no changes.
– In the fifth at Belmont, 72-1 Halation, a 4-year-old Lycius colt trying turf for the first time, graduated from the maiden ranks in his eighth start, giving rookie trainer David Prine his first win with his first starter. It’s a heartwarming story.
– An ugly scene in the seventh at Hollywood, when front-runner Waveland Avenue broke down in deep stretch, tossing rider Jose Valdivia to the track. Gobbler’s Knob, coming up the inside, veered to miss the stricken horse but was unable to get by and fell, unseating Taylor Baze. Both jockeys were able to walk off the track. Unfortunate Waveland Avenue, who had been drawing away to a convincing win, suffered a fatal front leg injury and was euthanized. The maiden special went to 54-1 Thrust, a bad actor at the gate, who balked at loading front or back for nearly five minutes and had to be blindfolded to get into the stall. He broke slowly and trailed the field by several lengths into the final turn, when he went five wide, began making up ground, and looked like a solid second coming down the center. Like commenter John, I’m wondering what’s happened to the Cushion Track — although I haven’t seen injury or fatality rates for the surface this meet and can’t say for certain, it does seem both are up significantly this spring.
– Steve Asmussen doesn’t like the trash talk coming from a certain barn. “I don’t want to hear a lot of worthless opinions about it. The proof is on the racetrack” (West Points).

Posted in Belmont on May 24, 2008

Very Promising

Music Note, so promising in her two starts last fall, won for fun this afternoon in the third at Belmont, her first race in more than six months. Relaxed and on the rail, she tracked the pace two lengths behind until the top of the stretch turn, when rider Javier Castellano nudged her to the outside and gave her a couple taps of the whip on the shoulder. Under a handride, the 8-5 favorite finished seven lengths ahead of the pricey Todd Pletcher-trained Charming, described in the results chart as “powerless to stall the winner” (PDF). So true. I hope this one shows up in a stakes next — she certainly has the breeding, being a 3-year-old filly by A.P. Indy out of the unraced Sadler’s Wells mare Note Musicale (whose dam was the champion filly It’s in the Air) and a half-sister to the mare Musical Chimes, winner of the 2003 French 1000 Guineas and the 2004 Mabee Handicap and Oak Tree Mile (she was retired in 2005). Final time for the mile allowance was 1:35.92, with a final quarter of :24.62.
5/23 Update: Rick Mettee said Music Note would be nominated to the Acorn, but was more likely to start next in the Mother Goose on June 28.

Posted in Belmont on May 22, 2008