JC / Railbird

Betting Archive

Increase Takeout, Decrease Wagering

I can only assume that many of the people who populate the Thoroughbred racing corner of the blogosphere also wager on the product, so it was with some surprise that I surveyed the landscape and found that only Steve Crist mentioned (with appropriate outrage) that New York will increase the takeout on its bets to 1%.
As one commenter on the Cristblog noted, some mucky-mucks cited New York’s “relatively low takeout” compared to other states. This holds true in the WPS pools and possibly in the two-horse wager pools (DD and exacta), but the trifecta, superfecta, and pick N pools were never a bargain at 25% and are even less so at 26%.
To me, an increase in takeout is far more grievous than Breeders’ Cup Ltd. moving the female races to Friday or renaming the Distaff the Ladies Classic. I realize that both changes rubbed people the wrong way, but the change is made in the spirit of trying something new in the hopes of increasing interest.
A raise in takeout, however, is nothing but a spit in the face to the game’s customers, the people who largely conduct the economic engine. I just plain don’t understand why anyone would want to support that kind of treatment by funneling their hard-earned dollars into New York’s wagering pools — especially those with the 26% takeout.
The only thing I like more than horse racing is a good old-fashioned boycott, and I am already looking forward to focusing my summer wagering dollars on Arlington, Ellis, and Del Mar. That is, away from Saratoga.

Posted in Betting on June 17, 2008

Nicanor’s Odds?

I know it’s nearly sacrilegious to discuss anything but the Belmont Stakes this week, but a hot debate has erupted in my office concerning what Nicanor’s odds will be when he debuts.
For those who don’t know, Nicanor is the late Barbaro’s full brother. He’s a two-year-old currently in training with Michael Matz at Fair Hill. The Blood Horse’s Claire Novak has been maintaining a blog dedicated to the colt’s development.
In discussing Novak’s most recent entry, I said to a coworker that I am enjoying the hype because it will lead to Nicanor being the “bet-against of the millennium” when he finally debuts. My coworker disagreed saying that the public does not necessarily hammer pedigree plays first-time out.
To me, though, this is not a pedigree play so much as a hype play. The Green Monkey is the primary example of this. He was 1-to-2 in his debut despite the fact that it took 1 1/2 years for him to start following his record sale. His workouts were excruciatingly slow, and the backstretch whispers indicated that he couldn’t beat any of trainer Todd Pletcher’s most inferior workmates.
Still, the $16-million horse was finally in a race, and he was 1-to-2 when finishing third by seven lengths. He started twice more and was favored both times.
This is not meant as a commentary on what level of success Nicanor can achieve. Good horses run to or even out run their odds many times. For every Big Brown, who paid $29.40 when he won his debut, there is a Casino Drive, who was 1-to-5 when he won his debut.
I say Nicanor couldn’t possibly be higher than even money when he runs, and if he debuts at Laurel or Delaware then 1-to-2 is probably the ceiling. My coworker says that no one could possibly make the projection without seeing how he’s been training, who else is in the race, etc.
What say you?

Posted in Betting, Handicapping, Horses, Pedigree Handicapping on June 4, 2008

Double Will-Pays

Pimlico Special-Preakness double will-pays from Ed.
The daily double wager linking the Pimlico Special Handicap (G1) with the Preakness Stakes (G1) provided few surprises in how the betting will go for the middle jewel of racing’s Triple Crown on Saturday, as the double with Special winner Student Council and Big Brown would pay $20.20.
Student Council paid $16.40 to win, which translates to a 1-5 price on Big Brown. The second choice was Gayego, the only other Derby starter to enter the Preakness, at $235.80, which is about 14-1.
Special-Preakness double will-pays:

Related: Steven Crist has fun with the numbers, reworking the odds without Big Brown.

Posted in Betting on May 16, 2008