JC / Railbird

Betting Archive

Nicanor’s Odds?

I know it’s nearly sacrilegious to discuss anything but the Belmont Stakes this week, but a hot debate has erupted in my office concerning what Nicanor’s odds will be when he debuts.
For those who don’t know, Nicanor is the late Barbaro’s full brother. He’s a two-year-old currently in training with Michael Matz at Fair Hill. The Blood Horse’s Claire Novak has been maintaining a blog dedicated to the colt’s development.
In discussing Novak’s most recent entry, I said to a coworker that I am enjoying the hype because it will lead to Nicanor being the “bet-against of the millennium” when he finally debuts. My coworker disagreed saying that the public does not necessarily hammer pedigree plays first-time out.
To me, though, this is not a pedigree play so much as a hype play. The Green Monkey is the primary example of this. He was 1-to-2 in his debut despite the fact that it took 1 1/2 years for him to start following his record sale. His workouts were excruciatingly slow, and the backstretch whispers indicated that he couldn’t beat any of trainer Todd Pletcher’s most inferior workmates.
Still, the $16-million horse was finally in a race, and he was 1-to-2 when finishing third by seven lengths. He started twice more and was favored both times.
This is not meant as a commentary on what level of success Nicanor can achieve. Good horses run to or even out run their odds many times. For every Big Brown, who paid $29.40 when he won his debut, there is a Casino Drive, who was 1-to-5 when he won his debut.
I say Nicanor couldn’t possibly be higher than even money when he runs, and if he debuts at Laurel or Delaware then 1-to-2 is probably the ceiling. My coworker says that no one could possibly make the projection without seeing how he’s been training, who else is in the race, etc.
What say you?

Posted in Betting, Handicapping, Horses, Pedigree Handicapping on June 4, 2008

Double Will-Pays

Pimlico Special-Preakness double will-pays from Ed.
The daily double wager linking the Pimlico Special Handicap (G1) with the Preakness Stakes (G1) provided few surprises in how the betting will go for the middle jewel of racing’s Triple Crown on Saturday, as the double with Special winner Student Council and Big Brown would pay $20.20.
Student Council paid $16.40 to win, which translates to a 1-5 price on Big Brown. The second choice was Gayego, the only other Derby starter to enter the Preakness, at $235.80, which is about 14-1.
Special-Preakness double will-pays:

Related: Steven Crist has fun with the numbers, reworking the odds without Big Brown.

Posted in Betting on May 16, 2008

The Tickets

With Jessica and I both bullish on the Arkansas Derby, it only makes sense that we would combine our efforts in the hopes of hitting the tri.

We’re playing Gayego w/ Colonel John and Z Fortune w/ ALL and Gayego w/ ALL w/ Colonel John and Z Fortune.

We’ll also back those tickets up by playing Colonel John and Z Fortune on top with Gayego keyed in the second and third spots. We’re betting $60 each on getting Gayego plus at least CJ or Z Fortune to hit the board, but when two people share an opinion on a 20-to-1 horse you gotta hammer it, right?

19 w/ 6, 10 w/ ALL ($36); 19 w/ ALL w/ 6, 10 ($36); 6, 10 w/ 19 w/ 1, 2, 4, 5, 6, 7, 9, 10, 11, 12, 14, 16, 18 ($24); 6, 10 w/ 1, 2, 4, 5, 6, 7, 9, 10, 11, 12, 14, 16, 18 w/ 19 ($24)

We’re tossing Big Brown.

Posted in Betting, Racing on May 3, 2008 / Tagged Kentucky Derby

Appetizer

There’s 33 races scheduled between now and 7 p.m. Saturday, but to hell with patience. I’m heavily invested in #8 Baladeva in here.
He took money sprinting on the turf at Gulfstream and got into trouble when hitting the gate, but still came home in a snappy :11.40.
Baird sticks around, Ward can fire second start, and he gets a drop in class. There’s some negatives, but 2-to-1 is fair value on this one to me, and he’s 5-to-2 now. Let’s get this pick four single home!
Well, that sucked.

Posted in Betting on May 1, 2008