JC / Railbird - Betting

Betting Archive

Catskill OTB Failed to Comply With Law

A Daily Racing Form inquiry into the 2002 Breeder’s Cup Pick 6 scandal “shows that Catskill routinely and consistently evaded state law by failing to send many statutorily required documents to the [New York State Racing and Wagering] board.” The situation isn’t much better now: “Even today, the relationship between Catskill and the board is hardly based on the letter of the law,” reports Matt Hegarty in this lengthy investigative article in the DRF.

Posted in Betting on August 15, 2004

Watching Yet Another …

Favorite win at Suffolk on Saturday had me wondering: Do favorites win more races at the East Boston track than the oft-cited 30% average? It wasn’t the first afternoon I thought I perceived a high percentage of favored horses win. A quick check of last week’s results does show an above average number of races won by favorites (WBF):

Dates & Races	% WBF	Average Odds	Bets	Winnings
6/21: 9	.67	1.50	$18	$30
6/22: 9	.33	1.67	$18	$16.02
6/23: 9	.44	1.33	$18	$18.64
6/26: 11	.55	1.37	$22	$28.44
Total: 38	.50	1.45	$76	$93.10 (+23%)

For comparison, Belmont during the same period:

Dates & Races	% WBF	Average Odds	Bets	Winnings
6/23: 9	.44	1.64	$18	$15.84
6/24: 9	.22	1.38	$18	$9.50
6/25: 9	.22	1.28	$18	$9.10
6/26: 10	.30	1.02	$20	$12.10
Total: 37	.30	1.35	$74	$46.54 (-37%)

This is a small sample size. Too small, really, to draw any significant conclusions from, but the results suggest a bettor might have to work a bit harder to find wagers with value at a small track such as Suffolk.

Posted in Betting on June 27, 2004

Handicapping 101

If only I’d had Brad Free’s excellent “Handicapping 101” (DRF Press) when I started trying to learn this game last year. The chapter on form alone elicited many, many aha! moments. My only quibble (and it’s one I have with almost all handicapping books) is with his disdain for place and show betting. “Wagering to place and show is futile,” Free writes. Oh, but such bets can be fun part of a wagering strategy. When judiciously made, they can pay off quite nicely. For instance, in race two at Suffolk Downs on June 15, the favorite, Brickaback, was at 1-1 on the board, despite his listless appearance in the paddock. But Got a Ticket looked lively and had odds of 18-1. A quick perusal of his past performances showed there was no way he would win, and he wasn’t a too likely second, but he was a very reasonable third, which is exactly what he ran, paying $17.80 — making a show bet in this race a better investment than a win bet on the second favorite, Metfleet, who returned $8.80.

Related: Steven Crist explains why a place bet on Smarty Jones in the Belmont would have made sense (Daily Racing Form).

Posted in Betting, Books on June 17, 2004

After →

← Home