JC / Railbird - Breeders’ Cup

Breeders’ Cup Archive

First Impressions

The numbers bode well: 117 pre-entries, 22 European invaders, four returning winners. A week before, the Breeders’ Cup is shaping up as a day of full fields and tough races.
The new line-up takes both juvenile races out of the Pick 6, which must be disappointing to those who’d hoped to single First Samurai in the Juvenile. The impressive Champagne winner is one of the day’s logical favorites. You get the idea that if jockey Jerry Bailey bet, he’d put it all on his Juvenile mount:

“He’s the best 2-year-old I’ve ever been on,” said Jerry Bailey, the Hall of Fame jockey, who has mounts in all eight races. “You dream about a horse like this coming along” (New York Times).

First Samurai may be the only logical favorite that doesn’t seem totally vulnerable. He’s beaten rival Henny Hughes twice by a comfortable margin. Admittedly, Henny Hughes contested a blistering pace in the Champagne and still had enough to finish second — but it wasn’t close there and it wasn’t in the Hopeful either. The Juvenile may be the one race where the one-two favorites finish one-two, which doesn’t spoil the fun of considering upset possibilities:

Both Dr. Pleasure and Ivan Denisovich have shown glimpses of talent. Dr. Pleasure won his maiden at first asking at Saratoga, taking a 6 1/2-furlong allowance race by 7 1/4 lengths while earning a solid Beyer Speed Figure of 85 … Ivan Denisovich has 2 wins from 5 starts. He is coming off a fourth-place finish in the Group 1 Middle Park Stakes, a six-furlong stakes on turf (Daily Racing Form).

Ivan Denisovich, one of the European contingent, will be making his first start on the dirt. I confess to thinking of betting him in a longshot Russian literature exacta with Leo. That would be a payoff! But bad handicapping.
Like the Juvenile, the Juvenile Fillies is also setting up as a rematch, with Adieu and Folklore meeting once more. It seems less likely that this race will end with both hitting the board — there are just too many other improving and talented fillies entered, such as Original Spin and Wild Fit. Another is the overlooked Along the Sea, who ran a challenging second to Adieu in the Frizette and managed a third in the Matron despite bursting through the gate and running a few yards down the backstretch before the start.

Posted in Breeders' Cup on October 20, 2005

Breeders’ Cup Preview

To be posted on Thursday night. I’m so behind on the news — I need another day to wade through the pre-entries and workouts and so on. I see Patrick of Pulling Hair and Betting Horses is focusing on the Filly & Mare Turf, so that he doesn’t have to worry about keeping up with the flood of information coming our way in the next week and a half. I like his strategy — I’m going to concentrate on the juveniles this year. (Not that this will keep me from saying something about the Classic or the Distaff. On Thursday, that is.)

Posted in Breeders' Cup on October 19, 2005

Baffert Considers Sprint

Trainer Bob Baffert is considering the Breeders’ Cup Sprint for Roman Ruler (Daily Racing Form):

“He worked good enough today where I would seriously consider the Sprint,” said Baffert. “The problem I have with the Classic is that he’s not mature enough to run with the older horses. He’s got brilliant speed. He’s not as quick away from the blocks, but he has speed.”

Roman Ruler last started in the Goodwood, where he finished second to likely Classic favorite Rock Hard Ten after setting the pace. Not a bad performance for a three-year-old — if that race didn’t take too much out of him, I could easily see Roman Ruler as the one most likely end Lost in the Fog’s winning streak.

Posted in Breeders' Cup on October 13, 2005

Looking Beyond the BC

The Breeders’ Cup is still more than two weeks away, but Steve Haskin is already thinking about the 2006 Triple Crown season:

This may sound like an outrageous question in October, but could it be that we finally are going to see a Triple Crown winner next year?

One guess as to who Haskin thinks could be the Triple Crown winner. Not that I disagree — I saw the colt every day for three weeks at Saratoga and he is an amazing specimen. Such presence! Such grace! And he has run a tremendous two-year-old campaign.

Posted in Breeders' Cup on October 11, 2005

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