JC / Railbird

Breeders’ Cup Archive

Breeders’ Cup Blogging

– I’m leaving for Monmouth early Friday, joining Alan in the auxiliary press box to live blog the Breeders’ Cup.
– Odds and ends: Forefathers has been scratched from the Dirt Mile. He’ll run in the Sprint on Saturday instead … Aidan O’Brien plans to send All My Loving out in blinkers for the Filly and Mare Turf. The last time All My Loving wore blinkers, she finished ninth as the favorite … Euro shipper Timarwa had a little colic when she arrived on Monday, but trainer John Oxx reports the filly has bounced back well. “She’s improved day by day,” he told TDN … John Shirreffs has an iPhone, and it’s giving the trainer a lousy weather forecast … Timeform rates Discreet Cat 8lbs clear of the Dirt Mile field and trainer Saeed bin Suroor is strikingly confident. “He has a brilliant chance.”

Posted in Breeders' Cup on October 25, 2007

BC Contender Quick Notes

Courtesy of the Breeders’ Cup Notes Team, a daily update on the activity of every BC contender. See who schooled in the paddock or the gate, jogged over dirt or cantered over turf, is still in quarantine or expected in the morning.
Updated with October 26 notes. Quiet morning for all, except Z Humor, who is reported to have breezed three furlongs in :36 with blinkers on.

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Posted in Breeders' Cup on October 24, 2007

Big Morning for BC Works

Breeders’ Cup contenders worked out at tracks across the country this morning, putting in their final preps for next weekend’s Championship races. According to Pletcher, Baffert, Violette, et al., there’s not much to report, everyone’s doing fine, every work went as expected. The exception was Discreet Cat, who breezed a bullet five furlongs in :57.46 at Belmont. “It was faster than I wanted, but good horses do that,” said assistant trainer Rick Mettee. “I was looking for something around 1:00” (Blood-Horse). Too quick? Or a sign that the Cigar Mile-winning monster is back, ready to run his best in Friday’s Dirt Mile?

Posted in Breeders' Cup on October 21, 2007

The Tight Turns of Monmouth

Time this evening that I should have spent poring over the lifetime past performances of every Breeders’ Cup pre-entry has instead gone to investigating the tight turns of Monmouth meme floating around right now, popping up in all sorts of articles and early analysis of the first World Championships to be held at New Jersey’s jewel box of a racetrack. Turns out, Monmouth’s sharp curves may well be as apocryphal as those of Pimlico. Below are comparisons of Monmouth to three other one-mile oval tracks.

Monmouth and Santa Anita

Left: Santa Anita. Right: Monmouth overlaying Santa Anita. Click to to view a larger image.

Monmouth and Santa Anita both have stretches of 990 feet and share a configuration of similar length turns and straights.

Monmouth and Pimlico

Left: Pimlico. Right: Monmouth overlaying Pimlico. Click to to view a larger image.

Monmouth’s turns are slightly longer than those of Pimlico, which has straights approximately 25 feet longer than those of Monmouth.

Monmouth and Churchill

Left: Churchill. Right: Monmouth overlaying Churchill. Click to to view a larger image.

Churchill has straights approximately 59 feet longer than Monmouth, making its turns shorter than those at Monmouth. Note the sharpness of the turn into Churchill’s stretch.

It’s possible Monmouth’s turns are steeply banked. Higher banks flatter speed and punish outside-running horses, which could explain the track’s reputed speed bias and Monmouth oddsmaker Brad Thomas’ contention in an interview with Dave Litfin that horses who run well on their left leads do better at the track (DRF, PDF, $). Overall, though, Monmouth’s turns seem like a minor handicapping factor. A bigger one will be the condition of the track’s surfaces in late fall, especially that of the grass. Thomas tells Litfin that he wouldn’t be surprised “if the turf is a little bit longer for the Breeders’ Cup races than it is in regular day-to-day racing during the summer,” which could be helpful to the Europeans.

Posted in Breeders' Cup on October 17, 2007

Breeders’ Cup Pre-Entries

[Updated 10/17, 10:05 AM: The complete pre-entries for the Breeders’ Cup are now posted below. Note: Pre-entries aren’t sorted by order of preference. Please visit DRF for that.]

Breeders’ Cup pre-entries were taken today, but won’t be released for another 48 hours, at 10:00 a.m. on Wednesday. The BC persists in the quaint practice of embargo, which makes no sense in this era of instant information and leads to the sort of awkward write-arounds posted tonight on the Daily Racing Form and Thoroughbred Times in which Todd Pletcher reports 15 entrants, Patrick Biancone six, and Bill Mott that Majestic Warrior will go in the Juvenile despite his poor Champagne showing. I’ve gone ahead and assembled a partial list of pre-entries including all of the horses mentioned by the above trainers, as well as horses whose connections have made it clear in recently published articles that they plan to enter. I left out several BC Challenge winners whose connections have either demurred about supplementing or already announced they’re running elsewhere. When the complete list and actual order of races is finally, officially available Wednesday, it’ll be interesting to see which Challenge winners are entered and what the European contingent looks like this year. According to a report in the Racing Post, trainer Aidan O’Brien is leading the way with Euro contenders, having entered several potential starters in the Breeders’ Cup, including Arc winner Dylan Thomas in the Turf.

*WH = William Hill odds as of 10/16/07, via Crist Blog.

Posted in Breeders' Cup on October 17, 2007

Four-Way Favorites

Steven Crist has posted the early Breeders’ Cup odds offered by British bookmaker William Hill over on his blog, and the Classic comes up a four-way at 5-1 apiece on Any Given Saturday, Curlin, Lawyer Ron, and Street Sense, which says much about the depth of the expected field. Lots of support in the comments for Street Sense as the post-time favorite, but my hunch is that it will be Curlin who goes postward at the shortest price, with the wiseguys granting a narrow edge to the colt who nailed the Derby winner at the wire in the Preakness and did the same to Lawyer Ron — the best older horse in training post-Whitney and Woodward victories — in the Jockey Club Gold Cup.

Posted in Breeders' Cup on October 10, 2007

Monday Afternoon Notes

– Steve Davidowitz recommends keeping distance notes for your Breeders’ Cup handicapping (DRF+); he’d probably recommend trip notes as well. You’ll want to refer to those when considering Greg’s Gold’s chances in the Sprint. Here’s a horse whose credentials trumped those of the other four starters in yesterday’s Ancient Title Handicap at Santa Anita, what with his multiple triple-digit Beyers and graded stakes wins, yet he finished second by 3/4 of a length to G3 Jersey Shore winner Idiot Proof. Give the credit to jockey David Flores for his shrewd riding from the start. As they raced down the backstretch, Flores positioned Idiot Proof in the clear outside while boxing the 3-5 favorite on the rail behind pacesetter Bordonaro, and he didn’t let up until the field was well into the stretch, leaving Victor Espinoza and Greg’s Gold hard-pressed for running room until the final yards, when Greg’s Gold found space to split rivals and displayed a strong turn of foot that could have gotten him the win, if only he’d had another sixteenth. “I think he probably would have won,” said trainer David Hofmans after. “I wished [Espinoza] would have gone wide, but he said he never had a chance to go wide” (DRF). Nice work by former jockey turned ESPN commentator Jerry Bailey during the post-race interview when he got Flores to admit that Idiot Proof was the second best horse in the race.
Second best or not, Idiot Proof had the advantage and made it to the wire in 1:07.57, a record on Santa Anita’s new Cushion Track. The Ancient Title was one of the Breeders’ Cup Challenge races and Idiot Proof now has a guaranteed spot in the Sprint starting gate at Monmouth, scene of the six-furlong Jersey Shore, in which the colt also set a record and earned a Beyer of 113. He may have been just about the only Challenge race winner who didn’t have enough BC points and actually needed the win to get in.
– Espinoza and Flores were mixing it up in the Lady’s Secret as well, with Flores on the front-running Hystericalady and Espinoza parked on the outside with Tough Tiz’s Sis, who ran down the favorite to win by a head. Tough Tiz’s Sis is another Challenge winner not Breeders’ Cup eligible, and her connections will have to decide soon if they’ll supplement her to the Distaff. “I think today was her breakout race,” said trainer Bob Baffert. “Right now we just have to wait a week and think about it. We have some bragging rights for a while, so we’ll let her decide” (Blood-Horse).
– After a dismal sixth place finish in the Oak Tree Mile, Lava Man’s owner Steve Kenly said there was zero chance the six-year-old gelding would go to the Breeders’ Cup. “I can say that with confidence,” he said. “He’s not leaving the state, so the people who don’t want to see him go got their wish. He won’t be going this time” (LA Daily News). Jockey Corey Nakatani made mention of “some issues” after to explain Lava Man’s effort, but had no details. According to trainer Doug O’Neill on Monday morning, Lava Man came out of the race fine and will be pointed to the November 3 California Cup Classic.
– Just throw out Majestic Warrior’s perplexing performance as the even-money favorite in the Champagne on Saturday. Trainer Bill Mott reports that a full examination post-race revealed nothing amiss and that the colt is still being considered for the Juvenile (NY Daily News).

Posted in Breeders' Cup on October 8, 2007

Champagne for Zito

– Looking a little stunned in the winner’s circle following the Champagne Stakes, trainer Nick Zito thanked his help for sticking around “through a long couple of years.” The 1 1/2 length win by War Pass over longshot Pyro was the first graded stakes score for the Zito barn since Wanderin Boy took the G2 Brooklyn Handicap in 2006 and the first G1 win since In the Gold in the 2005 Gazelle Stakes. Zito is now headed to the Breeders’ Cup with the 3-for-3 War Pass, who wired the Champagne in 1:36.12, setting quick early fractions of :22.87 and :45.72 in the first half and running the last quarter in a visually unimpressive :25.88. The colt shortened stride with jockey Cornelio Velasquez scrubbing furiously as they neared the wire, allowing Pyro to cut the margin of victory with a late dash. Whether the front-running War Pass can handle a two-turn route will be a big question going into the Juvenile. [War Pass’ Beyer speed figure: 103.]
Even-money favorite Majestic Warrior and second-favorite Ready’s Image, both graded stakes winners, turned in lousy efforts, finishing sixth and last, respectively. “At the half-mile pole, I was out of horse,” said jockey Garrett Gomez of Majestic Warrior. Trainer Todd Pletcher said immediately after the Champagne that Ready’s Image would not start in the Juvenile. “I wouldn’t expect a horse of that quality to run like that without an excuse” (Blood-Horse).
– Trainer Bob Baffert has two strong contenders for the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies, with Indian Blessing likely joining Oak Leaf winner Cry and Catch Me in the gate at Monmouth on October 27 following her 4 1/2 length romp this afternoon in the Frizette Stakes. Final time for the mile was 1:37.24; Indian Blessing ran the final quarter in :27.24. Gomez let the filly open up an eight length lead in the stretch, then shut her down in the final sixteenth, saving something for the Breeders’ Cup, perhaps, where she could well start as the favorite. It was only the second career start for the Indian Charlie filly, whose debut win at Saratoga was as much a blowout as the Frizette. [Indian Blessing’s Beyer speed figure: 87.]
– Today’s ESPN Win and You’re In broadcast of the Champagne and Keeneland stakes was bedeviled by audiovisual problems, with sound and picture both dropping out occasionally, and the afternoon was marred by one serious injury and two fatal accidents. In the Phoenix Stakes, Teuflesberg suffered a closed sesamoid fracture while racing third down the backstretch. Jockey Julien Leparoux did an excellent job of pulling up the colt and dismounting and Teuflesberg is now at Rood and Riddle Equine Hospital, where he’ll have surgery next week on his left foreleg. Before the Phoenix, multiple stakes winner Dream of Angels flipped over, incurring severe head trauma, and was euthanized in the paddock. In the Lane’s End Futurity, Gold Train broke down while pressing pacesetter and eventual winner Wicked Style. The two-year-old colt also suffered a fracture of the sesamoids and was euthanized.
– There’s a pick six carryover of $133,077 at Santa Anita on Sunday, thanks to 61-1 Smokey Route, who knocked out all remaining live tickets winning today’s nightcap. The pick six starts in race five on Sunday, with the Breeders’ Cup Challenge stakes on the card making up the first three legs.

Posted in Belmont, Breeders' Cup on October 6, 2007

Tuesday Evening Notes

– After losing the Adirondack and Spinaway Stakes at Saratoga by a combined 50 lengths, Phantom Income returned to winning form on Saturday in the NATC Futurity at Meadowlands (Blood-Horse). Sent off at 8-1, the two-year-old filly pressed the early pace, then squeezed through on the inside to win by 4 1/2 lengths over New York City Girl. Final time for the six furlong race was 1:09. An impressive debut winner at Belmont in July, Phantom Income was declared a non-starter in the Adirondack after a gate incident marred the break, leaving the second favorite trailing the field by several lengths. Trainer Rick Violette told Thoroughbred Daily News last month that the incident had set the talented-but-temperamental filly back mentally, requiring gate-schooling anew. “It has been a big problem,” he said. “We have had her back to the gate every day.” The conditioner must be hopeful that Saturday’s score is a sign Phantom is feeling good again.
– Undefeated Withers winner Divine Park, out of training since May with an injury to his left hind foot, worked three furlongs in :36.82 at Belmont Park this morning. Divine Park was expected to start in the Ohio Derby and was being pointed to the Haskell; no word yet on what trainer Kiaran McLaughlin might be planning for the Chester House colt in coming months.
– Over on FormBlog, Dan Illman gives a tutorial on spotting lead changes.
– I knew there was a reason I took a shine to Fabulous Strike at Belmont: The Vosburgh winner has Boston connections (Lowell Sun).
– Oh, and there were a few big Breeders’ Cup prep races across the country this weekend. Check out Superfecta, Mann, and Crist for all the details.

Posted in Breeders' Cup, Horses on October 2, 2007

They Won, They’re In

– Did anyone else find Saturday’s first Breeders’ Cup Challenge day as much a yawn as I did? Three of the four horses who won at Saratoga were probably headed to the Breeders’ Cup anyway, although Lawyer Ron was being considered for the Mile, a race perhaps more suited to his running style, and now has a berth in the Classic, a race he finished ninth in last year. Go For Wand winner Ginger Punch will have to be supplemented $180,000 to claim her guaranteed Distaff spot. It was great to see My Typhoon score a well-earned G1 victory following two G2 wins and Diabolical is a fine sprinter, but neither could be considered a “Cinderella” horse capable of whipping up casual fan interest as BC president Greg Avioli talked about happening in an interview before the Diana. The thing is, without standings, a better distribution of graded stakes among the divisions, and incentives for trainers to seek competition rather than duck it, Lawyer Ron’s record-setting Whitney and the other three stakes on Saturday remain just as unconnected and one-off as they did when there was no Challenge. “Win and You’re In” is a good concept, but it needs work.
– Todd Pletcher’s Saratoga slump extends to more than two-year-olds: The supertrainer has won just four of 25 starts in the meet’s first week. Admittedly, two of those wins were the Sanford and Whitney, but Pletcher is disappointed with his record so far anyway (Times Union).
– He wasn’t fully cranked, he got trapped on the inside, but Kentucky Derby winner Street Sense prevailed in Sunday’s Jim Dandy Stakes just the same. “It was a good, solid prep to get him ready for the Travers,” said trainer Carl Nafzger after (Blood-Horse).
– Rags to Riches is back in training (DRF).

Posted in Breeders' Cup, Saratoga on July 30, 2007