Meet the Candidates
Thoroughbred Daily News has asked Breeders’ Cup board candidates what they think is the biggest issue facing the Breeders’ Cup and have kindly allowed Patrick of Pulling Hair & Betting Horses to reprint their answers. Interesting stuff — promotion and growing the fan base are recurring themes, with Barry Weisbord making a good point about adding “elements of rational and meaningful structure, including schedule and standings, to differentiate our best and most marketable product,” and Chris Young talking up the potential of using technology to connect with fans.
BC Board Vote
Street Sense’s defection from the Belmont shows (again, like we needed the reminder) how much the breeding side of the business affects racing. But it also illustrates how much two races — the Kentucky Derby and the Breeders’ Cup Classic — have come to dominate the sport’s calendar and determine a horse’s stud value. To a horse that’s won the Derby, but lost the Preakness, the Belmont adds almost nothing. (And if he loses the Belmont, it only diminishes.) The only race that means more — to end of the year honors, to stud fees — is the Classic. Given the rising influence of the Classic and the rest of the Breeders’ Cup program, it’s a bit odd that so little is known about the views of the candidates currently up for election to the Breeders’ Cup Board. Byron, at the Pedigree Guru, explains the board’s politics and what’s at stake in this round of voting.
Breeders’ Cup Results
– Juvenile Fillies
The favorite: Dreaming of Anna (5-2)
The winner: Dreaming of Anna ($7.20)
My picks: Bel Air Beauty (8th), Quick Little Miss (10th)
The Breeders’ Cup card got off to a scintillating start with a dominating performance by Dreaming of Anna in the Juvenile Fillies. Living up to her pre-race hype, the filly took an early lead, rebuffed challenges from Appealing Zophie and Octave in the stretch and pulled away to a 1 1/2 length victory.
– Juveniles
The favorite: Circular Quay (3-1)
The winner: Street Sense ($32.40)
My picks: Stormello (5th), Circular Quay (2nd)
Street Sense was no less impressive, bursting through a hole on the rail to win the Juvenile by a record margin of 10 lengths.
– Filly and Mare Turf
The favorite: Ouija Board (7-5)
The winner: Ouija Board ($4.80)
My pick: Ouija Board
Ouija Board was the one sure thing on the Breeders’ Cup card and jockey Frankie Dettori rode the five-year-old mare with confidence.
– Sprint
The favorite: Henny Hughes (8-5)
The winner: Thor’s Echo ($33.20)
My picks: Bordonaro (4th), Siren Lure (8th)
Henny Hughes broke slowly, ran into traffic, and was out of contention early, finishing last. Thor’s Echo found his way along the rail, which was golden at Churchill yesterday, and took advantage of a formless pace situation to win.
– Mile
The favorite: Aussie Rules (3-1)
The winner: Miesque’s Approval ($50.60)
My picks: Echo of Light (14th), Araafa (8th), Librettist (9th)
The biggest upset of the day, Miesque’s Approval surprised with a big come from behind move.
– Distaff
The favorite: Fleet Indian (5-2)
The winner: Round Pond ($29.80)
My pick: Round Pond
Round Pond delivered in a race that was sadly marred by the fatal breakdown of Pine Island and the career-ending injury of Fleet Indian.
– Turf
The favorite: Hurricane Run (3-1)
The winner: Red Rocks ($23.60)
My picks: ‘Run (6th), Scorpion (5th), English Channel (3rd)
He rated, he rallied, he won.
– Classic
The favorite: Bernardini (1-1)
The winner: Invasor ($15.40)
My picks: Invasor, Sun King (9th), David Junior (Eased)
Jockey Javier Castellano rode Bernardini like he has in every race, but when the colt made his big move in the Classic to open up a lead, he had Invasor to contend with in the stretch, and Invasor had no trouble running right past the three-year-old, winning by a length and firmly establishing himself as the leading Horse of the Year candidate.
Breeders’ Cup Picks
– Juvenile Fillies: Bel Air Beauty, Quick Little Miss
Bel Air Beauty is an unknown on the dirt, with her first two starts over Polytrack, but she showed tactical speed winning the Alcibiades and put away favored Untouched Talent with ease in the Keeneland stretch. Quick Little Miss has been beaten by likely second favorite Cash Included twice, by seven lengths in the Oak Leaf at Santa Anita and four in a maiden special at Del Mar, which is a lot of ground to make up in the BC, but Cash Included’s morning line odds are 3-1 and Quick Little Miss’s 30-1, making the filly an enticing longshot to play underneath.
– Juveniles: Stormello, Circular Quay
The one race I don’t have a strong opinion about. Stormello showed great improvement winning the Norfolk, while Circular Quay has the best career record. Really, though, this race could go to any number of starters.
– Filly and Mare Turf: Ouija Board
Ouija Board will have a worthy competitor in three-year-old phenom Wait a While, but the 2004 winner of this race is simply the best in the field, coming into it after facing — and beating — some of the best male turf horses in the world over the past year.
– Sprint: Bordonaro, Siren Lure
Bordonaro is pure West Coast speed and he can wire this field. But should he and likely favorite Henny Hughes end up in a disastrous speed duel, Siren Lure could be right there to pick up the win.
– Mile: Echo of Light, Araafa, Librettist
– Distaff: Round Pond
Round Pond has many factors in her favor: A trainer change, third start off a layoff, and room for improvement, and at morning line odds of 15-1, she’s well worth a straight win bet.
– Turf: Hurricane Run, Scorpion, English Channel
Arc winner Hurricane Run appears to have gone off form, with two recent flops on his record. Even at his worst though, Hurricane Run stand outs in a mixed field of overmatched locals and miscellaneous foreigners. Scorpion is a dangerous possibility, and English Channel has done little wrong this year (he’s also won at 1 1/8 over the Churchill turf, beating Cacique). One I’ll pass on is Cacique. Churchill reports the turf as firm today and that’s compromised him enough in the past that at 4-1 against Euros and English Channel he’s a likely underlay here.
– Classic: Invasor
Bernardini is the even money morning line favorite and for good reason: He comes into the Classic off a string of dominating wins and shows a line of ascending Beyers. In fact, his last three Beyers are higher than the lifetime best of any other starter in the field. But I won’t be playing him: He’s a three-year-old facing serious older competition — Lava Man, Sun King, and Invasor won’t be as easily dispatched as Wanderin Boy or Andromeda’s Hero — for the first time and the Classic field is twice as large as any in his last three races.
Invasor has a gap in training, having missed the Jockey Club Gold Cup due to a fever, but he appears to be coming up to the race well. He was tough in the Whitney, recovering from a stumble at the start, making a big move going into the stretch, and digging in to hold off Sun King at the wire. He’s undefeated in the US this year, and he’ll top my tickets.
Breeders’ Cup Photos
My friend Bud, official photographer of Thoroughbred Racing Fans of New England, has put online a fantastic collection of photos from the Breeders’ Cup, as well as pictures from the weekend’s other stakes races and Gary Stevens’ 5,000th win. I wonder if Stevens actually got to have a slice of that chocolate cake …
Breeders’ Cup Wrap Up
The winners: Saint Liam and Richard Dutrow; Stevie Wonderboy and Merv Griffin; Pleasant Home, Intercontinental, and longshots all around.
The losers: Lost in the Fog; those who bet Leroidesanimaux to win; and anyone who doesn’t like Richard Dutrow.
The Worst of Racing
That I lost all but one bet at the Breeders’ Cup isn’t what has me feeling so down today. Nor is it that Lost in the Fog didn’t win. What has me so out of sorts was watching the Mile yesterday afternoon and then hearing the news last night that jockey Michel Lapensee died on Friday from injuries he suffered in an accident at Suffolk Downs last Monday.
Accidents happen in racing. Horses break down; jockeys are paralyzed or killed. It’s the ugly side of the sport, what we don’t mention when we’re talking about getting people out to the track or how to promote racing. And no wonder — when accidents happen, when there’s a death, it can horrify even the most devoted fans and make them want to turn away.
I didn’t see the accident at Suffolk last week, but I’ve seen enough to imagine the scene on the far turn. The rider lying motionless in the dirt, the wild-eyed horse fighting to right itself on the track. Michel Lapensee was much like other Suffolk jockeys, a journeyman who loved to ride, took the mounts he could get and did his best. That he died doing what he loved is small consolation for the horror of those moments.
What happened to Funfair in the Breeders’ Cup Mile was hardly less shocking. Halfway down the backstretch, the horse was pulled up with what very quickly could be seen as a catastrophic injury to his right hind leg. Jockey Edgar Prado struggled to still him and then slipped off the panicky animal, who broke loose from his hold and ran toward the outer rail, bucking and trying to shake away the pain. His leg flopped in the air. As the rest of the field ran to the finish, Funfair limped back toward Prado and an outrider. They caught the horse and the vet approached. The crowd cried out — the results were posted, favorite Leroidesanimaux was second by a nose — and Funfair slumped to the ground. The tarp went up.
I meant to write today about the best in racing — there were plenty of such moments yesterday — but I’m pausing instead to confront the worst, to mourn what was truly lost this weekend.
Finally, the Breeders’ Cup
Breeders’ Cup post positions and a morning line are up.
Although the Daily Racing Form’s BC preview has accompanied me all about town this past week, I haven’t handicapped the races as much I’d hoped. I’m consoling myself for the lack with the story of the CIA study that showed the more information handicappers had, the less accurate they were likely to be even as their confidence increased, and with the gloomy knowledge that I have a dismal Breeders’ Cup record. Blink handicapping can only improve it.
As an experiment, I’m posting my hunch/quick plays …
Juvenile Fillies: Along the Sea
Juveniles: Ivan Denisovich
Filly & Mare Turf: Wonder Again
Sprint: Lost in the Fog
Mile: Funfair
Distaff: Healthy Addiction
Turf: Shirocco
Classic: Perfect Drift
We’ll see how this method fares. Or, maybe I’ll just play the Equidaily way …
And the results are: One winner, Shirocco in the Turf, for $19.60. Well, there’s always next year.
Looking for Mudders
Hurricane Wilma is working its way up the East Coast, drenching New York and New England this morning. Everything is supposed to clear up on Thursday, and Saturday should be partly sunny, with only a 40% chance of rain. Even if not another drop falls until after the Breeders’ Cup, the Belmont turf is sure to be soft, which is another reason for me to leave the three grass races to others.
As for the dirt, reader Victoria emailed to say she was “handicapping with an eye toward mud” and I think she’s probably right in doing that. If the rain does go away on Thursday, the main track should be fast on Saturday. It’d be folly to count on that, though. So, who are the off-track standouts? One that really popped out at me in going over the Daily Racing Form Breeders’ Cup preview is Capeside Lady (30-1 morning line) in the Distaff. Trainer Todd Pletcher is understandably talking up stablemate Ashado, who will be retired after the BC and is the likely Distaff favorite. On a fast track, Capeside Lady isn’t likely to upset. On an off-track, she could win at a big price. Some of her most impressive performances and biggest Beyers — which equal Ashado’s — have come on muddy surfaces. She’s definitely one to consider if the conditions are right.
Shrinking Fields
Lost in the Fog will face a little less competition next Saturday. The Breeders’ Cup Sprint lost two starters this weekend: High Fly is out with a condylar fracture, as is Roman Ruler owing to a developing foot problem. “It’s not a quarter crack, but something is brewing in his heel,” said Baffert (Blood-Horse). Roman Ruler was plagued with quarter cracks last spring, which kept the colt out of the Triple Crown races.
Other recent withdrawals from next week’s races include Spinster Stakes winner Pampered Princess from the Distaff and Motivator from the Turf. The English Derby winner was retired after returning from a workout lame. Graham Motion, trainer of last year’s Turf winner, Better Talk Now, found a silver lining in that news: Motivator’s absence means Better Talk Now’s rabbit, Shake the Bank, can start. “Much as I hate to see one come out, this really helps our cause,” said Motion (Guardian).
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Jessica Chapel writes and edits in Massachusetts. Railbird is a Thoroughbred horse racing blog published from June 2004 to July 2019. More / Contact
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