JC / Railbird

Breeders’ Cup Archive

Beyers, Pre and Post BC

Intrigued by Steven Crist’s post comparing the Beyer figures Breeders’ Cup runners earned over the rain-soaked Monmouth surfaces on Saturday to their previous efforts, which included a chart showing that only 20 of 77 (26%) equaled or surpassed their last figure, I took a look at the 2006 and 2005 Breeders’ Cup numbers, and found that the 2007 percentage of non-progression, while it seems low and potentially indicative of horses not handling the slop or soft grass, might not be that far off. In 2006 (applying the same criteria as Crist), 22 of 86 (25.6%) runners matched or bettered their Beyers; in 2005, 26 of 81 (32%) did so:

What I find interesting about the numbers, and maybe more suggestive of horses not running their races, is the pattern of Beyers in each race and the difference between the two previous years, which were run over dry tracks, and 2007. There’s a flattening in the 2007 figures, with fewer big Beyer changes and no horse finishing worse than fifth showing any improvement. This year’s Classic is the race that appears most odd in comparison: Both 2006 and 2005 look formful, Beyer-wise, for all runners; 2007, not as much.
11/2 Addendum: A note from reader Richard raises a good point: “I think something unmentioned is the idea that most horses’ Beyer numbers are likely to go down when the competition toughens up. The BC participants’ prep races are versus softer competition and therefore they can perform better and earn a higher Beyer number. But as the numbers from the past three years show, stiffer competition separates the men from the boys, so the boys’ numbers regress while the men’s numbers get better.” Absolutely. There’s a relationship between class and speed that wasn’t addressed in this short post; it is very likely that the depth of Breeders’ Cup races results in regression for a number of starters, explaining why only a minority can match or better a previous performance, as measured by the figures. “Class will trump speed figures,” Richard writes, and while that’s not always so, it’s a heedful warning that relying too much on Beyers, or any one factor, will lead the handicapper astray, especially when talking about this level of racing …

Posted in Breeders' Cup on October 30, 2007

New York Dominates

– One of the can’t-miss stories of the Breeders’ Cup was the dominance of New York-prepped and based horses in every race. As Mike Watchmaker points out:

Nine of the 11 Breeders’ Cup race winners — Maryfield, Corinthian, Indian Blessing, War Pass, Lahudood, Midnight Lute, Ginger Punch, English Channel, and Curlin — made their last starts at either Belmont Park or Saratoga. This made for an imposing success rate for New York preps of 81.8 percent. And it should be noted that one of the other two Breeders’ Cup winners at Monmouth, Mile winner Kip Deville, is New York-trained. (DRF+)

Eye-catching stat. It’ll be interesting to see next year, when the Breeders’ Cup is run over the Santa Anita Cushion Track, if the results tilt toward synthetic-surface prepped horses and if trainers, anticipating that trend, send more horses west to run at Del Mar and Oak Tree.

– Let the Derby drums begin beating for War Pass: The undefeated Juvenile winner scored a Beyer speed figure of 113 for the race, which I suppose fits the final time of 1:42.76, but obscures how slow the colt came home, running the final sixteenth in :7.12 and the final quarter in :25.99. Something to keep in mind for next year as the Derby prep season heats up …

– Midnight Lute, for his brilliant last-to-first Sprint win, earned 108, off 16 points from his monster Forego performance last month. Trainer Bob Baffert said on Sunday that Midnight Lute would race next year and could possibly start once more this year, in the Cigar Mile. “We’ll play it by ear regarding one more possible start this season,” he said. “We’ll let him tell us” (DRF).

– Bill Finley has no confidence that Curlin will race as a four-year-old. “Racing is just like everything else these days. It’s always about the money” (ESPN).

– Ray Kerrison’s Breeders’ Cup day was “a fiasco rescued by some good luck” (New York Post). Mine was mostly fiasco.

– Owners begin transferring horses from trainer Patrick Biancone’s barn: Lady of Venice goes to Kiaran McLaughlin, Belgravia to Todd Pletcher (Blood-Horse).

Posted in Breeders' Cup on October 29, 2007

Breeders’ Cup Notes

– For American racing fans, the Breeders’ Cup peaked with Curlin’s dazzling display of speed and heart as he ran down Hard Spun in the Monmouth stretch, drawing past to win the Classic by 4 1/2 lengths. Final time for the race was 2:00.59, a Monmouth track record, with Curlin running the final quarter in :24.33. His Beyer came back a career-best 119. Thanks to a lot of sentimental money, Kentucky Derby winner Street Sense went off as the 3-2 post-time favorite, while Curlin — who beat Street Sense in the Preakness and Lawyer Ron in the Jockey Club Gold Cup — was sent off at 4-1, creating great value in the Classic if you played it right. Not only did Curlin pay $10.80 to win, but the exacta with Hard Spun came back a decent $70.80 and the trifecta, with longshot Awesome Gem, $645. (I didn’t have any of those — in fact, I went a perfect 0-for-8 on the day. Never have I been more glad to have not posted picks, because some turned out pretty laughable.)
For European racing fans, the Classic was the culmination of not just “one of the more wretched European adventures at the Breeders’ Cup, but one of the blackest anytime, anywhere” (Independent). For the first time since 1998, Euro shippers were shut out, doing no better than second in any race, with superhorse Dylan Thomas throwing the biggest clunker. Sent off at 4-5 in the Turf, the Arc winner struggled with the soft course, finishing sixth. “It was not turf racing,” said jockey Johnny Murtagh in the press conference after, pointing to his mud-spattered silks. “He was spinning his wheels out there. He even hated the warm-up, and this is a horse who loves his racing and everything about it. We had no chance.” That was clear when Murtagh took the whip to Dylan Thomas before the field even turned into the stretch, never a positive sign.
But what made the day truly dark was the tragic end of George Washington at the Classic’s conclusion. Having sustained a “hopeless” fracture of the right foreleg, “one of the most exciting horses to race in modern times” (Daily Mail) was screened from view and euthanized on track in front of the grandstand, only yards from the finish line and the celebratory crowd gathering for Curlin in the winner’s circle. Speculation that the sloppy track condition was a factor arose, as did George Washington’s inexperience on dirt. (The colt had started over the surface only once before, in the 2006 Classic, where he finished sixth, before being retired to stud. Found sub-fertile, he was brought back to race this year.) Asked after, veterinarian Wayne McIlwraith said that running over slop was “always a concern.”
Trainer Aidan O’Brien assigned no blame, and spoke eloquently of his star on Sunday morning. “George being George, if it had to happen, he would have chosen it that way: a big race, a big day,” he said. “He was a special one. He had character, attitude, everything. He was the complete, natural athlete” (Independent).
– Curlin, an unraced maiden at the start of the year, couldn’t have been more impressive in the Classic, surely tying up Horse of the Year and Champion 3YO honors with the win. Whether he’ll race next year is undecided. “With Robby on board and Steve training, I’m sure we can prove that he’s one of the best in the last century or half-century,” said part-owner Jess Jackson, who pointed out that Smart Strike’s sons often improve with age (WashPost).
Jackson admitted though that he’s struggling with the decision to continue racing Curlin or send him to stud. “We’ll see what happens. It is a financial game.” Gary West knows what the owners should do: “If he’s retired … it’ll be a decision his owners will regret forever because they’ll never get another one like him” (Star-Telegram).
– No indecision surrounds Street Sense. The Classic favorite finished fifth and left Monmouth for Darley stud duty at 5:00 this afternoon. It was a disappointing career end for the Derby winner, especially for those close to the colt. “I don’t have any excuses,” said trainer Carl Nafzger. “I didn’t have any going into the race and I don’t have any after the race. I did not win … and I am mad” (Times Union).
– Among the other post-BC retirees: Classic runner-up Hard Spun (joining Street Sense at Darley), Turf winner English Channel (to Hurricane Hall Farm), Dirt Mile winner Corinthian (to Gainesway), Filly & Mare Turf winner Lahudood (to Shadwell), My Typhoon (to Live Oak Plantation), and Balance (undetermined). Discreet Cat, third in the Dirt Mile, is back at Belmont and reportedly came out of the race fine. “We’re trying to figure him out,” said assistant trainer Rick Mettee. “No decision has been made for his future.” [10/30 Update: Discreet Cat retired to stand stud at Darley for $30,000.]

Posted in Breeders' Cup on October 28, 2007

Handle Down, Crowd Small

Blame it on the rain, say Breeders’ Cup officials: This year’s handle declined 20% (16-17% after international pools are factored in this week) from last year’s record wagering on the BC at Churchill Downs (Blood-Horse). The attendance of 41,781 was also the lowest since the 1995 Breeders’ Cup at Belmont, which drew a mere 37,246.

Posted in Breeders' Cup on October 28, 2007