High-Class Runners
Via Thoroughbred Times, an academic study confirms that higher-class racemares produce higher-class offspring. (Interesting, and must-reading for anyone doing late-night kitchen-table broodmare research.) Faster mares, stakes winners or not, also produced above-average foals. Using Equibase speed ratings, the University of Louisville researchers found, “Speed is the breeder’s friend…. comparing speedy dams to slower dams reveals that the speed of the dam is highly statistically significant …”
Valuing Curlin
From a November 3, 2007 Courier-Journal article by Greg Hall assessing Curlin’s potential value:
“If I had to guess, an educated guess, I would think somewhere between $60 and $70 million,” [Rick Porter, owner of Hard Spun] said. “All I know is what some of his competitors sold for, and he sort of towered over all of them when it was all said and done.”
Louisville native Jack Wolf, a partner who sold 2004 Kentucky Oaks and Breeders’ Cup Distaff winner Ashado for $9 million at auction, said he guessed Curlin could be worth $45 million.
Ric Waldman, an adviser to Overbrook Farm where Storm Cat stands, declined to give a figure, saying he had done some work for Jackson.
But “it would be extremely large numbers when you take into account that there is a racing future for the horse,” he said.
The same Ric Waldman, hired as an expert witness by the court-appointed receiver overseeing the 20% interest in Curlin not owned by Jess Jackson, testified in court today that,
he initially valued the horse in August at $30 million [for the receiver or another party?], but because of thoroughbred market downturns and the economy, he reduced that to $20 million.
Quite a difference a year makes. Jackson “agreed with Waldman’s assessment by bidding $4 million” for the remaining interest in the reigning Horse of the Year. Sounds like a bargain, especially for a stallion who is expected to stand for $75,000 to start.
Update: Matt Hegarty has more on the cross-examination of Waldman, in which he stuck to his figures, but did question the possible $75K stud fee given current market conditions.
After Reading
… that Curlin has been off steroids since January and that majority owner Jess Jackson averred to Joe Drape:
“I’m against all performance-enhancing drugs, or anything that masks or conceals designer drugs,” said Jackson, who acknowledged Curlin’s steroid use Tuesday … “I have been for zero tolerance since the 1950s. We have to start bringing our horses down from all these chemicals.”
I opened the past performances for the Man o’ War Stakes half-expecting bigger news to be revealed, that Curlin would race, as he did in Dubai, without Lasix, the legal diuretic with performance enhancing qualities given to almost every American racehorse (see pages 8-9 of veterinarian Lawrence Soma’s recent House testimony on the matter).
Not the case. Curlin will run on the drug, as will the other six starters. It’s basic game theory, applied to sports. Still, it would have meant something to learn that Jackson wasn’t just making a zero tolerance statement, he was taking a bona fide stand, and with his star.
Big Brown Economics
The best guess is that even with his modest pedigree (by Boundary out of Mien) and short career, Big Brown will command $125,000 to $150,000 for the first two years, maybe more. This assures that 2011 and 2012 yearling sales will be flooded with 60 to 70 yearlings by an unproven sire. Yet these babies will need to average $300,000 to $450,000 to be considered profitable in a sport where hardly any racehorses ever earn that money.
The marketplace, hardly reasonable …
100% Organic Foals
Here’s an idea from T.D. Thornton for healthier horses:
Starting with foals born in 2009, in addition to the established [select sale] requirements, horses must also be documented as steroid-free to qualify for a select sale.
It’s all about changing the incentives …
Three Chimneys, Racing at Four
An oldie but goodie from December 2006 (please ignore the typo in the first paragraph, LOL).
Strong Words
“[Eight Belles broke down] right where Raise a Native was the weakest, right in the ankles, and everybody acts like they don’t know what caused this filly to break down. It’s written right there for everyone to see! Except they refuse to see it. To admit it is to address the fact that all these stallions that are bred like that, that all the yearlings that are bred like that, are potential accidents waiting to happen.”
Two Points for Honesty
I’ve read a lot of chastising of Michael Ivarone for him having stated that Big Brown would likely not race as a four-year-old.
Personally, I appreciate the honesty and sparing us the song and dance. Remember Smarty Jones and the hoopla that surrounded him? His owners swore from here to doomsday that their Elusive Quality colt would race at four. He didn’t.
Three Chimneys stands Smarty Jones, War Chant, and Point Given, three horses that did not race at four. Three Chimneys is one of two breeding operations (along with Coolmore’s Ashford Stud) believed to be in line to acquire Big Brown’s services when he retires.
I don’t hold it against owners who take the money. In almost all instances they invest back into the sport anyway. More than anything I hate lip service, and Ivarone was honest.
It’s not like it’s his decision, anyway. The stud farm probably told him “this year and that’s it.” Just like Darley told the owners of Any Given Saturday, Hard Spun, and Street Sense.
As True in 2008
… as it was in 1984, when the Queen toured the Bluegrass looking for suitable studs for her broodmares:
Spendthrift Farms Owner Brownell Combs II explained the attraction of the area. “This is where the stallions are,” he said, “and the semen controls the industry.”
I came across the article linked above while searching for more information on Spendthrift, the subject of a new book by Mary Marshall, “Great Breeders and Their Methods: Leslie Combs II and Spendthrift Farm.” The book suffers from workmanlike prose but is redeemed by accidental timeliness, as Marshall recounts in painstaking detail both the history of the legendary farm and the biographies of its major horses such as Raise a Native and Mr. Prospector — names that have become part of the debate over breeding that’s erupted following Eight Belles’ fatal injury galloping out after the Kentucky Derby.
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Jessica Chapel writes and edits in Massachusetts. Railbird is a Thoroughbred horse racing blog published from June 2004 to July 2019. More / Contact
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