JC / Railbird

Del Mar Archive

Wednesday Evening Notes

– Week two at Saratoga got off to a better start than week one, although favorite Rumspringa was declared a non-starter after unseating rider Ramon Dominguez at the break in the first race. Dominguez was uninjured and all wagers refunded on Rumspringa, who was claimed by owner Michael Repole and trainer Bruce Levine. Winning Move Stable owner Steve Sigler is contesting the claim of the horse from his barn, since Rumspringa lost the jock and was ineligible to run for purse money (DRF).
– Trainer Todd Pletcher went 0-for-4 at the Spa today, but both his regular riders scored a stakes win this afternoon: In the Fleet Indian Stakes, Garrett Gomez piloted second favorite Lauren’s Tizzy to a 3 1/2 length win for trainer Mark Henning, while John Velasquez captured the De La Rose Stakes for Kiaran McLaughlin aboard Fantastic Shirl, who lagged far behind the rest of the field for the first five furlongs and then was blocked by traffic, forcing her to split horses in the stretch. She won by one length.
– Del Mar Polytrack trends: Some wild prices and form reversals out west recently, yet favorites have won 32% of Polytrack races since the beginning of the meet and half of the winners finished in the money in their last start, so it’s not total chaos. A few sires have now had multiple offspring win on the surface: In Excess is 3-for-16 (18%); Forest Camp 2-for-3 (67%); Old Topper 2-for-10 (20%); and Tribal Rule 2-for-7 (29%). California stud stalwarts Unusual Heat and Swiss Yodeler have two wins out of 20+ starters each. Interesting: Jockey Corey Nakatani and trainer Rafael Becerra are 4-for-4 with a $2 ROI of $7.75 on both Polytrack and turf.
– This must have been a scene: Owner Ahmed Zayat and Del Mar CEO Joe Harper “got into an animated, and at times profane, discussion” about Polytrack (DRF), which has drawn some complaints for the way it changes consistency throughout the day. Zayat’s horses and trainer Bob Baffert are headed to Saratoga (Union Tribune), which should be more to the speed-loving owner’s liking.
– Preakness winner Curlin arrived at Monmouth this morning for Saturday’s Haskell, where he’ll meet up with a freshed Hard Spun and hometown longshot Cable Boy (Star-Ledger).
– After weeks of advertising imminent revolution, Blood-Horse launched Blood-Horse NOW today. The site is available to subscribers of the print magazine (I assume there’ll be an online-only subscription in the near future). It looks great, very contemporary, with a spare, open aesthetic, and I appreciate being able to sort race results by class. But some features seem incomplete — there’s no way drill down by track into the leader lists, the only entries up are for graded stakes, and so on — and I hit a few missing pages and errors. Also, no sign of “unique and provocative statistics.” It’s all new, though, and very promising.

Posted in Del Mar, Saratoga on August 1, 2007

Carryover Alert

Thanks to a parade of longshots, there’s a one-day pick six carryover of $212,258 at Del Mar today; at the Spa, a one-day pick six carryover of $92,503.

Posted in Del Mar, Saratoga on July 30, 2007

So Disappointing

– Jockey Jose Valdivia on Buzzard Bay’s eighth-place finish in the San Diego Handicap as the 3-2 favorite:

Sun Boat rallied from last to win the race (ThoroTimes).
– Through Saturday, favorites had won nine of the 26 races on Del Mar’s new Polytrack (35%), and 17 starters with odds of 5-1 or less won (65%). Guess handicappers are doing just fine with the new surface.

Posted in Del Mar on July 22, 2007

Octave Wins CCAO

– At Belmont, Rags to Riches understudy Octave won an unexciting renewal of the Coaching Club American Oaks, tracking pacesetter Folk’s ambling fractions of :23.91, :48, 1:12.25, and 1:36.47 before drawing away at the eighth pole to win by half a length over the late closing Lear’s Princess, who may have earned a Saratoga start on the strength of her stretch run. “Our filly ran a great race,” said trainer Kiaran McLaughlin. “Maybe we’ll have to look at the Alabama now” (Blood-Horse).
The CCAO was Octave’s second Grade 1 win in a row; the Todd Pletcher-trained filly took the Mother Goose easily last month. She’s now won the first two legs of the Triple Tiara. To claim the third, she’ll have to start in the Alabama.
– A bizarre incident in Belmont’s sixth resulted in Pasqualina being declared a non-starter when she left the gate without rider Alan Garcia, who appeared to reach out for the right side of the stall at the break. Garcia came off the horse, slammed into the gate, and fell to the ground; Pasqualina chased the rest of the field around the track. Both jockey and horse were apparently fine, with Garcia riding his remaining mounts for the afternoon.
– Poor Fleetheart. The filly was thoroughly schooled in her first turf and stakes try at Del Mar today in the Osunitas Handicap. Breaking from the outside, another first for her, Fleetheart was positioned well off the pace through the first three quarters, looking uncomfortable the whole time, then found herself squeezed between two rivals at the top of the stretch. She finished last, losing her first race in five starts. Kris’ Sis won, paying $9, while even-money favorite Double Trouble finished third.
– Add to your watch list: More Happy. The two-year-old filly by Vindication, trained by Bob Baffert, debuted in Del Mar’s fourth today, which she won in a quick 1:05.7 by a neck over Foxy Danseur. More Happy is first-crop sire Vindication’s third winner from eight starters.
– Dreaming of Anna, sent off as the 3-1 third favorite, won the Virginia Oaks at Colonial Downs (BRIS).

Posted in Del Mar, Races/Results on July 21, 2007

Del Mar Observations

– The Polytrack surface tilted toward closers on the meet’s second day, after showing some speed-friendly qualities on opening day. Runners coming from off the pace did well, especially in the first two-turn races run over the track, but one winner also went wire-to-wire and another stalked. In other words — two days into the meet, it looks the track is playing fair. Forget about bias, worry more about pace.
– Times are slow. As Brad Free points in his analysis of opening day, “final times were more than two seconds slower than par from last year,” for the five sprints run over the surface on Wednesday (DRF+).
– Trainer Peter Miller is off to a hot start, winning four of six during the meet’s first two days, all for owner Gerson Racing. The trainer won two of those with jockey Corey Nakatani, who’s three for six on the Polytrack.

Posted in Del Mar on July 20, 2007

Del Mar’s Polytrack Era Begins

– Slowly. Race two was the first run over the new surface and the fractions for the six furlong affair were :22.68, :47.09, and 1:00.29, with a final fraction of :13.66. But the surface seemed to play fair through the afternoon. Pressers and stalkers did just fine, closers didn’t dominate. Watching from 3,000 miles away, the track looked firm, the kickback minimal, and only a few horses appeared uncertain about what was under their feet. “They’re gripping it, but it’s a lot different from anything they’ve ever been on,” jockey Richard Migliore told DRF after the second race. “It’s going to take some time for some of them to get used to it.” Migliore also warned handicappers that the surface was “tiring” and “You’re going to want a horse that makes one run. You don’t want a horse that’s going to be fighting you.”
– Trainer Richard Mandella won the day’s third, the two-year-old maiden special Bob Baffert’s Maimonides was scratched from, with 9-1 first time starter Kanan Dume, who tracked early speed Good Man Dan into the stretch, then held off even-money favorite Coast Guard to win by a neck. Look for all three to come back. Kanan Dume is by Malibu Moon, out of the late turf stakes-winning mare Trishdye, euthanized for complications following his birth.
– The unbeaten filly Fleetheart returns on Saturday, when she’ll try turf and stakes company for the first time in the Osunitas Handicap. Fleetheart is a half-sister to turf stakes winner Guardianofthegate, as pointed out in this earlier post, and she’s proven herself a tough, tactical runner in all four of her career starts.

Posted in Del Mar on July 18, 2007

Handicapping Polytrack

Del Mar opens Wednesday with a new Polytrack surface and reduced banking on the turns (DRF+) and cautious handicappers will watch intently the meet’s first days (North County Times) to see how the synthetic track plays. Almost certainly, the surface will evince qualities noted on other synthetics: It’ll be fairer, kinder to closers, crueler to speed. For those wondering how to handle this strange new world in which speed doesn’t always rule, Del Mar offers a James Quinn piece on Polytrack handicapping (PDF). I’m no Quinn, but here’s what I’ve noticed about synthetic surfaces:

– Fewer races are won wire-to-wire (handicapper Mike Maloney offers some interesting numbers about this in the Handicappers Expo panel on synthetics, now on DVD), but legitimate speed retains an advantage, especially in sprints. In one small test of Hollywood results I did, 26 of 262 starters in 36 races (all on the main track, all non-maidens) could be classified as “Early,” meaning their average position at first call was on the lead or less than one length off the lead. Of those, 10 won. That 28% win rate is 11% less than a similar sample from the previous year, but still a powerful number.

The key though is determining what’s legitimate speed — synthetics expose cheap speed for what it is, allowing horses coming from off the pace or far back to run their races. We call this “favoring” closers only because speed horses and speed-biased dirt tracks have become so dominant. We’re seeing a shift to a world of truer pace. Handicap through that lens on synthetics, rather than that of bias, and you’ll be rewarded.

– Class matters on synthetics. Horses must fit, and must be fit enough for, the level at which they’re starting. Horses running back to the same class level or dropping a bit run better than their odds, and this is especially true when going turf to synthetic.

– Pedigrees can offer clues to how horses will handle synthetic surfaces. For a long time, I paid little attention to breeding. Synthetics changed that, as it became apparent that the surface wasn’t turf or dirt and that there are sires whose offspring perform well specifically on the surfaces. Arlington Park handicapper Joe Kristufek has identified several sires with exceptional success on synthetic tracks: Belong To Me, Chester House, Chief Seattle, Honour and Glory, Skip Away, and Slew City Slew. In Excess, Lit de Justice, and Tribal Rule have also sired multiple synthetic surface winners.

Related: Hollywood’s first spring-summer meeting on Cushion Track ended a huge success: Handle broke records, attendance was up, and even field size increased, the track announced. Del Mar officials must be hoping they can report similar triumphs come September.

Contrary opinion: John Mucciolo probably won’t be playing Del Mar: “I have had enough! Average animals taking home the trophies in our biggest events, ridiculous results from day-to-day, top horses failing to produce on synthetic ovals, when will the madness stop?”

Posted in Del Mar, Synthetic Surfaces on July 17, 2007