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Handicapping Archive

Saturday’s Longshot Flyer

TP, R2: Maajnoon (ML 30-1). [Results: Off at 81-1 in her debut, Maajnoon finished dead last in a field of 12.]
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Briefly, the Bourbonette Oaks: Both A to the Croft and Clearly Foxy have run well in graded stakes, but neither have started since the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies and could need a race. Valentine Fever came back gamely to beat Love Buzz in the Valdale at Turfway last month; Lovers Spat finished third in that race. I’m going to go with Maren’s Meadow, coming off a second place finish to Sky Mom in the tough Martha Washington Stakes at 9-1. She’s by the late Meadowlake, whose offspring have not excelled on synthetic tracks, but I like her speed and recency over this bunch. [Results: Maren’s Meadow got a dream trip, stalked the pace, drew away, paid $17.60 to win.]

Posted in Handicapping on March 21, 2008

The Bad and the Troubled

“The obvious trouble with trouble is it might have happened to a slow horse.”

Posted in Handicapping on February 26, 2008

Winners Win Races

Seven weeks into the meet, Steve Zacks runs some Gulfstream stats and finds recent wins matter:

Winners win races! Be they trainers, jockeys or the horses themselves. A recent win is an important factor to take into consideration in handicapping. After eliminating the races for maidens, 249 races for winners have been offered. Of those winners, 183 had won at least one of their previous five starts, and 59 were repeating a last-out victory. From the 59 repeaters, 24 had won at least one other race in their last five.

Zacks doesn’t provide the total number of starters who won last out, but it’s probably safe to assume the percentage is lower than the 23% of winners who won last out.

Posted in Handicapping on February 20, 2008

Today’s Longshot Flyer

AQU, R2: E Z Dollar (ML 10-1). [Results: Wearing blinkers for the first time, E Z Dollar drew clear in the stretch, paid $19.60 to win.]

Posted in Handicapping on January 31, 2008

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