JC / Railbird

Handicapping Archive

Also True of PPs

Bill James on baseball stats: “I would say generally that baseball statistics are always trying to mislead you, and that it is a constant battle not to be misled by them.”

Posted in Handicapping on April 2, 2008

Saturday’s Longshot Flyer

TP, R2: Maajnoon (ML 30-1). [Results: Off at 81-1 in her debut, Maajnoon finished dead last in a field of 12.]
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Briefly, the Bourbonette Oaks: Both A to the Croft and Clearly Foxy have run well in graded stakes, but neither have started since the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies and could need a race. Valentine Fever came back gamely to beat Love Buzz in the Valdale at Turfway last month; Lovers Spat finished third in that race. I’m going to go with Maren’s Meadow, coming off a second place finish to Sky Mom in the tough Martha Washington Stakes at 9-1. She’s by the late Meadowlake, whose offspring have not excelled on synthetic tracks, but I like her speed and recency over this bunch. [Results: Maren’s Meadow got a dream trip, stalked the pace, drew away, paid $17.60 to win.]

Posted in Handicapping on March 21, 2008

The Bad and the Troubled

“The obvious trouble with trouble is it might have happened to a slow horse.”

Posted in Handicapping on February 26, 2008