Railbird 2004–2019

Handicapping Archive

Recency Rules Have Changed

Except when they haven’t. “Back in the day, the two bedrock rules for any respectable system were usually a) Eliminate any horse who has not run in the past 30 days and b) Award extra credit to any horse coming off a sharp race in the past 30 days,” writes Dave Litfin. “The new order of things is closer to the following: Rule No. 1: Accept as contenders any horses who have not run in the past 30 days. Rule No. 2: Eliminate any horse coming off a sharp race in the past 30 days.” But then along comes a horse like Midas Eyes, who won the Forego Handicap 10 days after an allowance-level win. Here’s the only rule in handicapping: Any rule you come up with will be proven wrong. (Daily Racing Form)

Posted in Handicapping on September 5, 2004

Saratoga Tipsheets Part of Tradition

“The tipsheet salesmen and their colorful wares are among the first images greeting a visitor to Saratoga, about 175 miles north of New York City, and are a reminder of horse racing’s roots, when tracks featured a carnival-like atmosphere redolent of state fairs.” The sheets are more than just local color though: “For those who visit Saratoga for a leisurely day at the races, the tipsheets cut through the dizzying data consumed by handicappers. And some days somebody else’s picks pay off handsomely. As the racetrack saying goes, even a blind squirrel sometimes finds a nut.” (New York Times)

Posted in Handicapping on August 15, 2004

Eat or Be Eaten

“If you’re playing the race, you’re screaming for a big-price horse. If you’re not playing that particular race, it’s time to become the world’s biggest chalkhead. You don’t want your competitors nailing a 20-to-1 shot, so you wind up rooting (but not aloud) for the race favorite to clunk home” (ESPN).

Posted in Handicapping on July 4, 2004