JC / Railbird

Horses Archive

Nicanor’s Odds?

I know it’s nearly sacrilegious to discuss anything but the Belmont Stakes this week, but a hot debate has erupted in my office concerning what Nicanor’s odds will be when he debuts.
For those who don’t know, Nicanor is the late Barbaro’s full brother. He’s a two-year-old currently in training with Michael Matz at Fair Hill. The Blood Horse’s Claire Novak has been maintaining a blog dedicated to the colt’s development.
In discussing Novak’s most recent entry, I said to a coworker that I am enjoying the hype because it will lead to Nicanor being the “bet-against of the millennium” when he finally debuts. My coworker disagreed saying that the public does not necessarily hammer pedigree plays first-time out.
To me, though, this is not a pedigree play so much as a hype play. The Green Monkey is the primary example of this. He was 1-to-2 in his debut despite the fact that it took 1 1/2 years for him to start following his record sale. His workouts were excruciatingly slow, and the backstretch whispers indicated that he couldn’t beat any of trainer Todd Pletcher’s most inferior workmates.
Still, the $16-million horse was finally in a race, and he was 1-to-2 when finishing third by seven lengths. He started twice more and was favored both times.
This is not meant as a commentary on what level of success Nicanor can achieve. Good horses run to or even out run their odds many times. For every Big Brown, who paid $29.40 when he won his debut, there is a Casino Drive, who was 1-to-5 when he won his debut.
I say Nicanor couldn’t possibly be higher than even money when he runs, and if he debuts at Laurel or Delaware then 1-to-2 is probably the ceiling. My coworker says that no one could possibly make the projection without seeing how he’s been training, who else is in the race, etc.
What say you?

Posted in Betting, Handicapping, Horses, Pedigree Handicapping on June 4, 2008

Sunday Morning Notes

– Zenyatta may be most exciting horse racing this year (and yes, I’m including Big Brown in the also-rans; he’s a Triple Crown season comet). The 4-year-old filly ran her unbeaten streak to five in the G2 Milady at Hollywood on Saturday. Bumped and squeezed at the start, Zenyatta showed a super turn of foot, closing from last into a slow pace (the first quarter in :24.74, the first half in :48.19) and kicking away to a 2 1/2-length win. “She always makes everyone look like they stopped,” said co-owner Ann Moss after. “It’s like she’s out for a gallop and everyone else is stopping” (LA Daily News).
– The power of having a Triple Crown contender in your barn made manifest: NYRA track superintendent John “Fast Track” Passero has adjusted Belmont track maintenance at the request of trainer Rick Dutrow, who was concerned about the recent condition of the dirt surface:

Passero said the track was graded less, harrowed more in the last week, giving it an additional quarter inch of cushion.
– Tale of Ekati breezed six furlongs in 1:11.19 this morning over the muddy main track in his final prep for the Belmont Stakes. “This was the move I was hoping for last week,” said trainer Barclay Tagg. In other Belmont news, Tomcito is out with a “reaction” and Casino Drive worked in company with stablemates Spark Candle and Champagne Squall.
– Frank Amonte, now 72 and riding at Suffolk Downs, continues in his quest to be the oldest jockey to win a race.
– When Romenesko posted the memo from Lexington Herald-Leader publisher Tim Kelly announcing a voluntary buyout program meant to cut 4% of the newspaper’s staff, I wondered if turf writer Maryjean Wall might be among those accepting the deal. Unfortunately for readers, she is:

Wall, who plans to finish her PhD in history and teach, landed the racing beat in 1973 and was one of the first women to cover the sport full-time. Given the state of the newspaper industry and declining racing coverage, she might also be one of the last to do the same …
– Bill Handleman declines to get caught up in Triple Crown excitement: “I cannot bring myself to root for Big Brown … I cannot bring myself to utter his name in the same breath with Affirmed and Seattle Slew, much less Secretariat.”

Posted in Belmont, Horses on June 1, 2008

Sunday Night Links

– The dress code at Saratoga will be more casual this summer. “It’s the way the world is headed,” said NYRA spokesman John Lee of the changes (Gazette). Men in tank tops will remain forbidden in the clubhouse. Thank goodness.
– Spin! “The truth of the matter is, once we eliminate use of anabolic steroids, we will have arrived at the European drug model with some variations.” Those variations, so minor — just Lasix, phenylbutazone, and cortiscosteroids.
– Magnificience returns triumphant from a 13-month layoff.

Posted in Horses on May 18, 2008

A Terrible Accident

According to the final necropsy results (PDF) released today by the KHRA, there was no “catastrophic event,” no heart attack or pulmonary aneurysm that felled Eight Belles as she galloped out after finishing second in the Derby, causing her leg injuries. The report concluded that the filly suffered compound fractures in both front legs at the fetlock joints, for which she was euthanized on track, and noted that “no pre-existing bone pathology was observed.” In other words: She was sound and what happened was a terrible accident.

5/16 Update: KHRA reports that Eight Belles tested negative for steroids and other substances.

Posted in Horses on May 15, 2008