JC / Railbird

Keeneland Archive

Tuesday Morning Notes

– At Churchill: Tale of Ekati worked four furlongs in :49.40 (“nothing dramatic“) over the main track. Halo Najib, #21 on the earnings list, worked five furlongs in 1:05 over the turf.
– Dutrow’s plan: “After winning the Derby, Big Brown will go to Baltimore, win the Preakness, and then claim the Triple Crown with a win in the Belmont.” If only winning the Triple Crown were that easy; I’m sure we would have had a winner or two in the past 30 years. [Addendum: Joe Drape reports today that Dutrow, now at Churchill, is more subdued.]
– Of course, if Big Brown does win the Derby, certain unsavory subjects will come up for discussion …
– Now proven, synthetic surfaces produce closer finishes:

The change is good for horseplayers, said a Polytrack representative: “Close finishes give the bettor the feeling that they weren’t too far off” (ThoroTimes).
– Average daily handle declined at Keeneland during its recently concluded spring meet, but aided by an additional day and a closing card pick six carryover, overall Keeneland numbers were just 5% off last year’s record handle.

Posted in Keeneland, Racing on April 29, 2008 / Tagged Kentucky Derby

The Longer the Meet Goes

… the more the adjusted average daily win mutuel drops at Keeneland this spring:

Sounds like trainer Dale Romans is on to something with his comment, “I’m not so sure [betting on Keeneland] would be a problem if it were longer than a two-week meet, so they can get a gauge on who’s running well” (Herald-Leader).
Over on Left at the Gate, Alan makes the point that the problem of fewer winning favorites at Keeneland could also be due to the meet being so competitive. Makes sense. Consider the stats: Through Wednesday, favorites won 28/132 races (21%) and finished in the money in 77/132 races (58%). If you break the races down into Polytrack and turf, the split is 24/106 win (23%), 60/106 ITM (57%) on poly and 4/26 win (15%), 18/26 ITM (69%) on turf. The turf fields are certainly competitive, and it looks like the synthetic fields are as well. With a little more time and a little less Poly-hysteria, the numbers might come into line with what handicappers expect at endless meets like Aqueduct.

Posted in Keeneland on April 24, 2008