JC / Railbird

Pedigree Handicapping Archive

Nicanor’s Odds?

I know it’s nearly sacrilegious to discuss anything but the Belmont Stakes this week, but a hot debate has erupted in my office concerning what Nicanor’s odds will be when he debuts.
For those who don’t know, Nicanor is the late Barbaro’s full brother. He’s a two-year-old currently in training with Michael Matz at Fair Hill. The Blood Horse’s Claire Novak has been maintaining a blog dedicated to the colt’s development.
In discussing Novak’s most recent entry, I said to a coworker that I am enjoying the hype because it will lead to Nicanor being the “bet-against of the millennium” when he finally debuts. My coworker disagreed saying that the public does not necessarily hammer pedigree plays first-time out.
To me, though, this is not a pedigree play so much as a hype play. The Green Monkey is the primary example of this. He was 1-to-2 in his debut despite the fact that it took 1 1/2 years for him to start following his record sale. His workouts were excruciatingly slow, and the backstretch whispers indicated that he couldn’t beat any of trainer Todd Pletcher’s most inferior workmates.
Still, the $16-million horse was finally in a race, and he was 1-to-2 when finishing third by seven lengths. He started twice more and was favored both times.
This is not meant as a commentary on what level of success Nicanor can achieve. Good horses run to or even out run their odds many times. For every Big Brown, who paid $29.40 when he won his debut, there is a Casino Drive, who was 1-to-5 when he won his debut.
I say Nicanor couldn’t possibly be higher than even money when he runs, and if he debuts at Laurel or Delaware then 1-to-2 is probably the ceiling. My coworker says that no one could possibly make the projection without seeing how he’s been training, who else is in the race, etc.
What say you?

Posted in Betting, Handicapping, Horses, Pedigree Handicapping on June 4, 2008

I <3 Ipi Tombe

It wouldn’t take a psychologist to figure out why I like the horses I do: I tend to favor the ones that prove me right.
I was at a Burger King eating lunch on the first Saturday of May 1998 handicapping that year’s Derby undercard when a local asked me who I liked in the big race. “Real Quiet,” I said. He scoffed, and me being the whippersnapper I’ll never stop being said, “Well, it’s your money, but he’s going to win.”
I never saw that guy again, but I bought the person who would eventually be the best man at my wedding eight years later dinner that night with my winnings.
Five years later I was in Las Vegas with another friend (who also would end up in my wedding). All weekend I had talked about one bet I wanted to make: Ipi Tombe in the Dubai Duty Free. The race was going off around 8 a.m. Pacific time. There were four of us on the trip, but only my future groomsman forwent sleep after a night of partying to hit up the Bally’s sportsbook to watch and wager on 4-to-5 Ipi Tombe with me.
There may have been a dozen people in the sports book, and we were clearly the only ones cheering for the odds on Ipi Tombe as she opened up a three-length lead in the Nad al Sheba stretch. It’s kind of embarrassing to think about how loudly we were cheering for a $3.60 winner, but we were young and in Vegas and having the time of our lives.
And now Ipi Tombe has done it for me again. I’ve had some stinker picks on this blog since I started writing Derby week. Going against Big Brown twice certainly hasn’t made me look smart, but I got all that losing money back and then some after Monastic Springs rallied late to defeat He Struck It Rich (out of Desert Stormer) and pay $50.50 per $2 across the board. Now let’s get this pick four home. :)

Posted in Pedigree Handicapping on May 24, 2008

Pedigree Alert

The seventh race on Saturday at Belmont Park is a maiden special weight affair for three-year-olds and up going seven furlongs on the turf, and the field of 12 expected to go postward contains more than a few interesting pedigrees led by Monastic Springs, a Sadler’s Wells colt out of the world champion Zimbabwe-bred turf mare Ipi Tombe.
Colts Neck Stables bred Monastic Springs in Great Britain, but he starts here for Jayeff B Stables and trainer Alan Goldberg, who fires 20% from a 25-starter sample according to Daily Racing Form statistics. I’d be more interested, of course, for the breakdown on three-year-old first-time starters going short on the turf.
Ipi Tombe’s other foal, the two-year-old Pivotal filly Pin Turn also is in the U.S. despite being bred in Great Britain. I wonder if Jayeff B acquired both children?
Also in the race is #1A Elusive Gift, an Edward P Evans Elusive Quality colt out of Christmas Gift, dam of Grade 1 winner Christmas Kid and kin to such luminaries (pun intended) as Bright Candles and Grand Slam.
#5 He Struck It Rich is out of Breeders’ Cup Sprint winner Desert Stormer, herself a graded stakes producer.
#6 Bob’s Star is out of Grade 2 winner Star of Broadway from a family that includes champion Pleasant Stage and Grade 1 winner Seattle Meator.
#10 Phenomenal Cat is a three-quarter brother to champion Johannesburg.
At the morning line, I’d have to stick with the horse I led with — Monastic Springs. It’d be criminal to see a horse with that pedigree win first time out and pay $15.

Posted in Pedigree Handicapping on May 23, 2008