JC / Railbird

Racing Archive

The Indefensible

Andrew Beyer:

It is wrong to characterize Asmussen as a bad apple. It is unfair to single him out for stigmatization. And it was thoroughly disingenuous for Phipps to say, “His presence and participation [in the Kentucky Oaks and Derby] would indicate that it’s just ‘business as usual’ in the thoroughbred industry.”

Through the industry, the indiscriminate use of drugs is business as usual.

Yes. And so long as it is, racing will be a target for groups like PETA.

Or Congress.

Posted in Racing on April 28, 2014 / Tagged Drugs in Racing, Lasix, PETA, Steve Asmussen, Thyroxine, Trainers

Bigger and Badder

Brad Free (DRF+):

Beholder is better this year and poised for a super season. Not because she won her comeback over soft foes with a 98 Beyer. It is because she is stronger and more robust than last year when her Breeders’ Cup Distaff romp clinched a second championship …

The Phipps is going to be a great race.

Posted in Racing on April 26, 2014 / Tagged Beholder

The Rule

The one Kentucky Derby rule still going strong is that the Derby winner raced as a 2-year-old. It’s been so every year since 1882. I took a quick look at that record last year, when Verrazano was the unraced-as-a-2YO Derby contender, noting that since 2003, only nine of 192 Derby starters hadn’t raced as a juvenile (that’s now 10 of 211). It’s a small group. Nicole Sauer dives deeper into the numbers, looking at all graded stakes starters from 1973-2013:

During this period, 73% of graded stakes starters raced at age 2, while 27% were unraced as 2-year-olds. If “having a 2-year-old foundation” is important for graded stakes performance at 3, then we should expect a higher proportion of 3-year-old graded stakes winners to have raced at 2. This is the case, but only by a 2.2% margin: 75% of 3-year-old graded stakes winners raced at 2 compared to 25% who didn’t.

So, there’s a slight edge to having juvenile experience. A very slight edge.

Hoppertunity is the sole likely Kentucky Derby starter this year who didn’t race last year. If you like him, though, you have to like that he’s made up for that lack of early experience with five starts so far this year.

Posted in Racing on April 25, 2014 / Tagged Derby Prospects, Derby Rules, Hoppertunity, Kentucky Derby, Statistics