JC / Railbird

Synthetic Surfaces Archive

More Research Needed

The Racehorse Welfare and Safety Summit wrapped on Tuesday with a lengthy list of action items, including a few that have to do with synthetic surfaces, a major topic of discussion during the two-day affair. In one panel, Dr. Mary Scollay presented preliminary statistics showing nearly identical fatality rates for synthetic and conventional tracks (although synthetic surface rates had initially been lower and the figures reported did not include California tracks), while in another, track superintendents discussed the care of synthetics. Turns out, the surfaces aren’t as maintenance free as touted: “I think what we found out is … you really have to stay on top of this stuff much more than we originally thought,” said Dennis Moore of Hollywood Park (Herald-Leader). And his track is frequently cited as an example of successful implementation …

Posted in Synthetic Surfaces on March 19, 2008

Privileging Speed

“You have to go to a bull ring like Great Lakes Downs to find a similar speed bias,” writes Dick Powell of Gulfstream’s main track speed bias during last year’s meet, raising a point I’ve touched on here in posts about synthetic surfaces:

Can you imagine the outcry if this was a synthetic racing surface and it had such a pronounced bias? Synthetic racing surface critics pounded Del Mar’s Polytrack this summer yet where are they with Gulfstream’s main track? Just like a speed horse was at a big disadvantage trying to go two turns on Del Mar’s main track, horses trying to rally off the pace are at an equal disadvantage in sprint races on Gulfstream’s main track.

As I wrote last summer about handicapping Polytrack:

Synthetics expose cheap speed for what it is, allowing horses coming from off the pace or far back to run their races. We call this favoring closers only because speed horses and speed-biased dirt tracks have become so dominant.

Privileging speed is the norm; few think twice about tracks favoring front-runners. It’ll be a while before that changes. [BRIS link via the always excellent Left at the Gate.]

Posted in Handicapping, Synthetic Surfaces on January 5, 2008

Handicapping Polytrack

Del Mar opens Wednesday with a new Polytrack surface and reduced banking on the turns (DRF+) and cautious handicappers will watch intently the meet’s first days (North County Times) to see how the synthetic track plays. Almost certainly, the surface will evince qualities noted on other synthetics: It’ll be fairer, kinder to closers, crueler to speed. For those wondering how to handle this strange new world in which speed doesn’t always rule, Del Mar offers a James Quinn piece on Polytrack handicapping (PDF). I’m no Quinn, but here’s what I’ve noticed about synthetic surfaces:

– Fewer races are won wire-to-wire (handicapper Mike Maloney offers some interesting numbers about this in the Handicappers Expo panel on synthetics, now on DVD), but legitimate speed retains an advantage, especially in sprints. In one small test of Hollywood results I did, 26 of 262 starters in 36 races (all on the main track, all non-maidens) could be classified as “Early,” meaning their average position at first call was on the lead or less than one length off the lead. Of those, 10 won. That 28% win rate is 11% less than a similar sample from the previous year, but still a powerful number.

The key though is determining what’s legitimate speed — synthetics expose cheap speed for what it is, allowing horses coming from off the pace or far back to run their races. We call this “favoring” closers only because speed horses and speed-biased dirt tracks have become so dominant. We’re seeing a shift to a world of truer pace. Handicap through that lens on synthetics, rather than that of bias, and you’ll be rewarded.

– Class matters on synthetics. Horses must fit, and must be fit enough for, the level at which they’re starting. Horses running back to the same class level or dropping a bit run better than their odds, and this is especially true when going turf to synthetic.

– Pedigrees can offer clues to how horses will handle synthetic surfaces. For a long time, I paid little attention to breeding. Synthetics changed that, as it became apparent that the surface wasn’t turf or dirt and that there are sires whose offspring perform well specifically on the surfaces. Arlington Park handicapper Joe Kristufek has identified several sires with exceptional success on synthetic tracks: Belong To Me, Chester House, Chief Seattle, Honour and Glory, Skip Away, and Slew City Slew. In Excess, Lit de Justice, and Tribal Rule have also sired multiple synthetic surface winners.

Related: Hollywood’s first spring-summer meeting on Cushion Track ended a huge success: Handle broke records, attendance was up, and even field size increased, the track announced. Del Mar officials must be hoping they can report similar triumphs come September.

Contrary opinion: John Mucciolo probably won’t be playing Del Mar: “I have had enough! Average animals taking home the trophies in our biggest events, ridiculous results from day-to-day, top horses failing to produce on synthetic ovals, when will the madness stop?”

Posted in Del Mar, Synthetic Surfaces on July 17, 2007