JC / Railbird

Synthetic Surfaces Archive

I Heart Synthetics

Thanks for all the great comments on this post linking to Andrew Beyer’s column about the Blue Grass. I’m reminded of why I enjoy this game so much: It’s a perpetual puzzle that attracts smart people and spirited discussion, and it’s one of the few hobbies or pursuits that doesn’t just reward contrarianism, but practically demands it.
I like synthetic surfaces: I went to Turfway in 2006 to see Polytrack up close, I started following the Southern California circuit with the advent of Cushion Track at Hollywood, I prefer playing Keeneland Polytrack to Keeneland dirt. Putting aside the safety question, I enjoy handicapping these surfaces. I like that stamina is rewarded and cheap speed folds, that new pedigree plays are popping up. Synthetics shake up the scene, create new challenges and betting opportunities, and if they’re properly installed and maintained, they play fair. Like commenter ‘Crunk, I’ve found there are differences between the surfaces — just as there between dirt tracks — and I’ve adjusted my handicapping.
I won’t argue that some surfaces aren’t quirkier than others — that the pick six at Keeneland went unhit for seven days and that favorites through Sunday had won only 18% of races (although, favorites did finish in the money 63% of the time, so it’s not total chaos in Kentucky), suggests horses and handicappers are struggling with the surface there — but neither am I willing to throw up my hands and declare synthetic track results bizarre and incomprehensible, at least not any more so than I would other surfaces, such as Aqueduct’s inner dirt mid-winter.
As for the Blue Grass and what it means for the Derby: Monba is a solid and versatile, if uninspiring, colt. Throw out the Fountain of Youth, credit his myectomy for the Blue Grass turnaround, and you’re left with a middling horse who could win the Derby if this year’s field were filled with similarly dull beasts. (Aside: When will horseplayers get disclosure of surgical procedures performed between races? It’s ridiculous that Monba flipped his palate and had throat surgery to prevent another displacement and that wasn’t officially reported anywhere.) Pyro didn’t take to the track and he didn’t show anything in the stretch. He seems to have come out of the race fine, so he’ll almost certainly bounce back to his pre-Keeneland performance level in the Derby, but it won’t be enough, no matter how well he works. That says more about the rigors of the Derby than it does about the surface of the Blue Grass.
—
Related: Ellis Starr says “Adapt or die!” when it comes to synthetic surfaces. That’s harsher than I’d put it, but it’s not the worst advice …

Posted in Handicapping, Synthetic Surfaces on April 17, 2008

More Research Needed

The Racehorse Welfare and Safety Summit wrapped on Tuesday with a lengthy list of action items, including a few that have to do with synthetic surfaces, a major topic of discussion during the two-day affair. In one panel, Dr. Mary Scollay presented preliminary statistics showing nearly identical fatality rates for synthetic and conventional tracks (although synthetic surface rates had initially been lower and the figures reported did not include California tracks), while in another, track superintendents discussed the care of synthetics. Turns out, the surfaces aren’t as maintenance free as touted: “I think what we found out is … you really have to stay on top of this stuff much more than we originally thought,” said Dennis Moore of Hollywood Park (Herald-Leader). And his track is frequently cited as an example of successful implementation …

Posted in Synthetic Surfaces on March 19, 2008

Privileging Speed

“You have to go to a bull ring like Great Lakes Downs to find a similar speed bias,” writes Dick Powell of Gulfstream’s main track speed bias during last year’s meet, raising a point I’ve touched on here in posts about synthetic surfaces:

Can you imagine the outcry if this was a synthetic racing surface and it had such a pronounced bias? Synthetic racing surface critics pounded Del Mar’s Polytrack this summer yet where are they with Gulfstream’s main track? Just like a speed horse was at a big disadvantage trying to go two turns on Del Mar’s main track, horses trying to rally off the pace are at an equal disadvantage in sprint races on Gulfstream’s main track.

As I wrote last summer about handicapping Polytrack:

Synthetics expose cheap speed for what it is, allowing horses coming from off the pace or far back to run their races. We call this favoring closers only because speed horses and speed-biased dirt tracks have become so dominant.

Privileging speed is the norm; few think twice about tracks favoring front-runners. It’ll be a while before that changes. [BRIS link via the always excellent Left at the Gate.]

Posted in Handicapping, Synthetic Surfaces on January 5, 2008