Railbird 2004–2019

Triple Crown Archive

Preakness Day

It’s a picture perfect day in Baltimore; the Pimlico track is fast, the turf firm, and speed is holding. Results are chalky through the eighth race (in which Diabolical almost set a new track record winning the Maryland Breeders’ Cup Sprint); jockeys Ramon Dominguez, Rafael Bejarano, and Mario Pino have won two each so far. Street Sense is 7-5 in the early Preakness wagering, Curlin the second choice at 3-1.
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Rain! And suddenly, Hard Spun is tempting with 4-1 odds. Less than 20 minutes to post and I’m reconsidering my wagering plan …
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And the winner is … Curlin, by a short head over Street Sense. There’ll be no Triple Crown this year.

Posted in Triple Crown on May 19, 2007

Preakness Picks

1. Street Sense: At 7-5 on the morning line, and very likely even money in actual wagering, the Derby winner is hardly a tempting betting proposition, but he has a terrific post position outside Hard Spun and possible pacesetter Flying First Class and there’s plenty of speed in here to set up for his closing style. Plus, his class, speed, fitness, etc. make it difficult to get past him. So, I won’t even try.
2. Circular Quay: Consider the Derby a prep for the Preakness for this Pletcher-trained closer.
3. Curlin: I wasn’t on the Curlin bandwagon going into the Derby, but was impressed with the way he got up for third in that race after being shuffled back and blocked through the early stages.
4. King of the Roxy: The Santa Anita Derby second place finisher comes into the Preakness fresh.
5. Xchanger: Wire to wire over the track in the Federico Tesio last month, with a trainer who’s 47% at Pimlico. No surprise if he shows up in the exotics.
Looking for excuses after: Hard Spun. We’ve seen Hard Spun’s bottom. We saw it when he tired in the last furlong of his pre-Derby workout, we saw it again when he tired in the Derby. If ever a horse was ready to bounce, it’s this one.
Trailing, by several lengths, at the end: Flying First Class, Mint Slewlep, and C P West.

Posted in Triple Crown on May 18, 2007

Preakness Post Positions

2008 Preakness post positions:

PP	Horse	Jockey	ML
1	Macho Again	Leparoux	20-1
2	Tres Borrachos	Baze	30-1
3	Icabad Crane	Rose	30-1
4	Yankee Bravo	Solis	15-1
5	Behindatthebar	Flores	10-1
6	Racecar Rhapsody	Albarado	30-1
7	Big Brown	Desormeaux	1-2
8	Kentucky Bear	Theriot	15-1
9	Stevil	Velazquez	30-1
10	Riley Tucker	Prado	30-1
11	Giant Moon	Dominguez	30-1
12	Gayego	Smith	8-1
13	Hey Byrn	Lopez	20-1

Posted in Triple Crown on May 16, 2007

Circular Quay Possible

Trainer Todd Pletcher, already planning to enter King of the Roxy in the Preakness, surprised on Monday with the announcement that he’s strongly considering Circular Quay for the race as well. Circular Quay, who worked four furlongs in :44.4 with A.P. Arrow on Monday morning, finished sixth in the Kentucky Derby. “Basically since the Derby he’s trained very well, and I just wanted to keep my options opens,” said Pletcher (DRF). Running Circular Quay back in two weeks would be a very un-Pletcher like move: According to Formulator, he’s started horses off such short rest just 177 times out of 4,814 races in the last five years (3.7%). Of those, he’s won 30 (17%) and finished in the money 87 times (47%). In graded stakes, Pletcher has 21 such starts out of 885 in the past five years (2.4%), winning two (10%), both in 2004, and finishing in the money seven times (33%).
Tuesday morning update: DRF reports that Circular Quay will start in the Preakness.

Posted in Triple Crown on May 14, 2007

Preakness Bound

– A very happy Calvin Borel after the Kentucky Derby:

– And in white tie, on his way to meet the Queen.
– Trainer Carl Nafzger is downplaying Preakness talk, even telling reporters that the race isn’t “even on the radar now” (USA Today), but the Derby winner is almost definitely bound for Baltimore, where he’ll probably meet up with Hard Spun and Curlin again. Others considered possible for the race are Chelokee and Xchanger. Past performances for likely Preakness starters are up on DRF.
– A Street Sense-Hard Spun rivalry is blooming, with trainer Larry Jones appearing to relish the role of potential Triple Crown spoiler. “There hasn’t been a Triple Crown winner since 1978, and there won’t be one this year either, if I have my say” (Baltimore Sun). Hard Spun was one of the horses I had trouble figuring out before the Derby and I’m not so sure I see him turning the tables on Street Sense the next time they meet. But then, both colts progressed well, earning new career-best Beyers in the Derby, and it’s unlikely Street Sense will get the same golden rail trip in “Pino land” as he did at Churchill. One curious thing about Street Sense’s Derby run was the way he moved back to the rail after passing Hard Spun, on his own, rather than continuing to run straight in the two-path. That move, combined with the ducking in during the Bluegrass when Street Sense was forced to run off the rail, certainly suggests a tactical weakness …

Posted in Triple Crown on May 7, 2007