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Triple Crown Archive

Afleet Alex Wins Preakness!

I am thrilled. What a great race, what an amazing horse, and what a brilliant ride by Jeremy Rose. Final time was 1:55, and Alex won despite a near-disastrous collision with an unfocused and drifting Scrappy T at the top of the stretch. Knocked to his knees, Afleet Alex bounced up and stormed down the stretch as though nothing had happened. It was easily the most impressive performance we’ve seen all spring. Scrappy T finished second, Giacomo third.

Posted in Triple Crown on May 21, 2005

Wide Open Preakness

Here’s my prediction for today’s Preakness: It will be a more exciting race than the Kentucky Derby. Of the 14 starters, 11 are logical contenders to finish on the board. Who will win? A horse with a stalking style such as Afleet Alex, Closing Argument, or High Fly. I’d be delighted if Giacomo won this afternoon, but studying his record and races over the past couple of days, it seems pretty clear that he’s a deep closer, and the Preakness isn’t likely to set up so favorably for him as did the Derby. He could run second or third — but so could just about every other horse, including Greeley’s Galaxy, Scrappy T, and Noble Causeway. A little creative wagering could pay off nicely at the windows today. How I’ll play: Very lightly and just for fun, with a $1 tri box on Afleet Alex, Closing Argument, and Noble Causeway.
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Looking for an unusual angle? You could play Sun King:

It will be deja vu all over again in tomorrow’s 130th Preakness Stakes for Nick Zito, the Yogi Berra of horse trainers, when his colt Sun King rebounds from a puzzling defeat in the Kentucky Derby to win the middle jewel of the Triple Crown.

Think back to 1996. Of the 12 previous Preaknesses, 10 were won by horses that lost the Kentucky Derby. Of those 10, six finished fourth or worse at Churchill Downs.

Zito’s Louis Quatorze fit that profile. Coming off a loss in the Blue Grass, he finished 16th in the ’96 Derby, beaten the length of the stretch….

Is it mere coincidence that Louis Quatorze, the horse, was named for the 17th century French monarch Louis XIV, otherwise known as “the Sun King?” (New York Post)

I’ve heard sillier …

Posted in Triple Crown on May 21, 2005

Greeley’s Preakness?

In recent years, the Kentucky Derby winner would be an automatic favorite for the Preakness. Not this spring. Giacomo is on almost everyone’s do-not pick list. Andy Beyer is particularly brusque in his dismissal of the gray colt’s chances to take the second leg of the Triple Crown:

Throw out Giacomo.

That’s the easy part of handicapping the Preakness.

Beyer likes Greeley’s Galaxy, as do Ray Kerrison and Steve Haskin. They all point to his “monster move” halfway through the Derby, when Galaxy came within four lengths of the leaders, and his good workouts in the past couple of weeks. (Although Haskin admits to feeling a little less confident after Galaxy’s “wild work” this morning.) The colt’s Derby move was visually impressive, a nice flash of speed and talent, but I don’t see how anyone can interpret that to suggest he’s better than, say, Giacomo. Galaxy made up eight lengths between the second and third call, and then almost as quickly fell back four. Giacomo rallied at the same time, made up nine and a half lengths, and kept going.
But can Giacomo win the Preakness? “He’s been improving all along,” said trainer John Shirreffs. “But it’s such a short time between races until the Preakness, it’s hard to gauge where he is.” And that’s the problem with Giacomo. There’s not enough in his record to ascertain what kind of horse he is or hint at the race he’ll run. He’ll be a factor, he might even win; I can’t toss him out completely. I’m not alone thinking like this: “The attitude toward Giacomo is ambivalence, wait and see at best.”

Posted in Triple Crown on May 20, 2005

Preakness Post Positions

PP	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	ML
1	Malibu Moonshine	Hamilton	Leatherbury	20-1
2	High Fly	Bailey	Zito	9-2
3	Noble Causeway	Stevens	Zito	10-1
4	Greeley’s Galaxy	Flores	Stute	15-1
5	Scrappy T	Dominguez	Bailes	20-1
6	Hal’s Image	Santos	Rose	50-1
7	Closing Argument	Velasquez	McLaughlin	5-1
8	Galloping Grocer	Bravo	Schettino	30-1
9	Wilko	Nakatani	Dollase	10-1
10	Sun King	Bejarano	Zito	15-1
11	High Limit	Prado	Frankel	12-1
12	Afleet Alex	Rose	Ritchey	5-2
13	Giacomo	Smith	Shirreffs	6-1
14	Going Wild	Albarado	Lukas	30-1

There’s been much talk about the importance of post position in the Preakness outcome, which Alan at Left at the Gate has nicely summed up here and here. Full Preakness coverage on Friday …

Posted in Triple Crown on May 19, 2005

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