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No Respect for Giacomo

Not one of five turf writers making their Preakness picks choose Giacomo to win (Newsday). Pedigree experts wonder “whether Giacomo’s victory wasn’t a telltale hoof print about the declining quality of the classic American thoroughbred” (Washington Post). And Bill Finley can’t find anything to look forward to this Saturday:

It’s hard to imagine anything too scintillating happening in Saturday’s 130th edition of the Preakness. Not with a Kentucky Derby winner in Giacomo who generates virtually no excitement or buzz. Not with his challengers largely composed of a group of overmatched new shooters and horses who are coming into the race after throwing in a dud in the Derby.

Finley recommends on ESPN.com that fans tune into ESPN Classic before the Preakness and watch Whirlaway.
Poor Giacomo. As my racing companion said, “He ran his heart out. He did what he was supposed to do. He won the Derby, but he’s still a loser.”
So, what are Giacomo’s chances in the Preakness? Not as long as handicappers may think:

The last two long-shot winners of the Derby were also thought to be common horses who took advantage of dream paces.

In 1999, Charismatic, a former claiming horse, stalked a moderate pace and won at odds of 31-1 in a final time that was slower than Giacomo’s. In 2002, Bob Baffert purchased War Emblem three weeks before the Derby on behalf of Prince Ahmed bin Salman of Saudi Arabia. The pair liked his front-running victory over a weak field in the Illinois Derby.

Neither the jockeys who let War Emblem loose on the lead in dawdling fractions nor the bettors who dismissed him at odds of 21-1 believed he could lead every step of the way. At the Preakness, Charismatic was sent off at a generous price of 8-1; War Emblem was the 5-2 favorite. Each won convincingly. (New York Times)

Mike Brunker also makes the case for not dismissing Giacomo completely. (MSNBC)
I don’t know yet what I think of the Preakness field. It’s really shaping as an interesting one though, and I’m keeping an open mind until I have time on Thursday or Friday to study the past performances of all the starters. One thing that I can say with certainty is that I won’t be so quick to dimiss history — six of the last eight Derby winners captured the Preakness and 32 of the last 36 Preakness winners started in the Derby (Lowell Sun) — meaning, it’s very unlikely I’ll back Malibu Moonshine or Scrappy T, and Giacomo isn’t looking that bad to me right now.
More: “Yes, 50-1 shots may win the Derby, but predictability reigns in the 14-horse Preakness” (Baltimore Sun); Mike Watchmaker pares the Preakness contenders down into two groups (Daily Racing Form — sub. req.); more Preakness news …

Posted in Triple Crown on May 17, 2005

Bellamy Road Injured

And out of the Preakness and Belmont stakes. Trainer Nick Zito discovered Tuesday that the colt has a popped splint bone. “The bad news is he popped a splint,” said Zito. “The good news is the X-rays are clean otherwise. There’s no fracture, so he’ll be back for the big races this summer.” Bellamy Road may start in the Travers. (Daily Racing Form)

Posted in Triple Crown on May 11, 2005

Belmont Tickets On Sale

Tickets for the June 11 Belmont Stakes are on sale now. “On sale” meaning follow the link to NYRA, download and print a PDF page, fill it out, and mail it in by February 28 for the seat allotment lottery.

Posted in Triple Crown on February 13, 2005

Triple Crown Nominees Named

A total of ~~357~~358 three-year-olds were nominated for this year’s Triple Crown races. Trainer Todd Pletcher leads the pack with 34 nominations. Last year Pletcher nominated 35 horses and none made it the Kentucky Derby, Preakness, or Belmont Stakes. Almost all the three-year-olds you’d expect to be nominated are on the list, including Declan’s Moon and Sweet Catomine. Oddly, Lost in the Fog isn’t. Did someone in the barn forget the nomination deadline? (Boston Globe)
Related: The number of horses nominated this year is down 20% from two years ago, and is the lowest number of nominations since 1996. “But the decline was expected, said Ed Seigenfeld, executive vice president of Triple Crown Productions. That’s because this year’s 3-year-olds were the hardest-hit of the two crops of Kentucky-born horses ravaged by the mysterious Mare Reproductive Loss Syndrome three years ago.” (Courier-Journal)

Posted in Triple Crown on February 7, 2005

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