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Greeley’s Preakness?

In recent years, the Kentucky Derby winner would be an automatic favorite for the Preakness. Not this spring. Giacomo is on almost everyone’s do-not pick list. Andy Beyer is particularly brusque in his dismissal of the gray colt’s chances to take the second leg of the Triple Crown:

Throw out Giacomo.

That’s the easy part of handicapping the Preakness.

Beyer likes Greeley’s Galaxy, as do Ray Kerrison and Steve Haskin. They all point to his “monster move” halfway through the Derby, when Galaxy came within four lengths of the leaders, and his good workouts in the past couple of weeks. (Although Haskin admits to feeling a little less confident after Galaxy’s “wild work” this morning.) The colt’s Derby move was visually impressive, a nice flash of speed and talent, but I don’t see how anyone can interpret that to suggest he’s better than, say, Giacomo. Galaxy made up eight lengths between the second and third call, and then almost as quickly fell back four. Giacomo rallied at the same time, made up nine and a half lengths, and kept going.
But can Giacomo win the Preakness? “He’s been improving all along,” said trainer John Shirreffs. “But it’s such a short time between races until the Preakness, it’s hard to gauge where he is.” And that’s the problem with Giacomo. There’s not enough in his record to ascertain what kind of horse he is or hint at the race he’ll run. He’ll be a factor, he might even win; I can’t toss him out completely. I’m not alone thinking like this: “The attitude toward Giacomo is ambivalence, wait and see at best.”

Posted in Triple Crown on May 20, 2005

Preakness Post Positions

PP	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	ML
1	Malibu Moonshine	Hamilton	Leatherbury	20-1
2	High Fly	Bailey	Zito	9-2
3	Noble Causeway	Stevens	Zito	10-1
4	Greeley’s Galaxy	Flores	Stute	15-1
5	Scrappy T	Dominguez	Bailes	20-1
6	Hal’s Image	Santos	Rose	50-1
7	Closing Argument	Velasquez	McLaughlin	5-1
8	Galloping Grocer	Bravo	Schettino	30-1
9	Wilko	Nakatani	Dollase	10-1
10	Sun King	Bejarano	Zito	15-1
11	High Limit	Prado	Frankel	12-1
12	Afleet Alex	Rose	Ritchey	5-2
13	Giacomo	Smith	Shirreffs	6-1
14	Going Wild	Albarado	Lukas	30-1

There’s been much talk about the importance of post position in the Preakness outcome, which Alan at Left at the Gate has nicely summed up here and here. Full Preakness coverage on Friday …

Posted in Triple Crown on May 19, 2005

No Respect for Giacomo

Not one of five turf writers making their Preakness picks choose Giacomo to win (Newsday). Pedigree experts wonder “whether Giacomo’s victory wasn’t a telltale hoof print about the declining quality of the classic American thoroughbred” (Washington Post). And Bill Finley can’t find anything to look forward to this Saturday:

It’s hard to imagine anything too scintillating happening in Saturday’s 130th edition of the Preakness. Not with a Kentucky Derby winner in Giacomo who generates virtually no excitement or buzz. Not with his challengers largely composed of a group of overmatched new shooters and horses who are coming into the race after throwing in a dud in the Derby.

Finley recommends on ESPN.com that fans tune into ESPN Classic before the Preakness and watch Whirlaway.
Poor Giacomo. As my racing companion said, “He ran his heart out. He did what he was supposed to do. He won the Derby, but he’s still a loser.”
So, what are Giacomo’s chances in the Preakness? Not as long as handicappers may think:

The last two long-shot winners of the Derby were also thought to be common horses who took advantage of dream paces.

In 1999, Charismatic, a former claiming horse, stalked a moderate pace and won at odds of 31-1 in a final time that was slower than Giacomo’s. In 2002, Bob Baffert purchased War Emblem three weeks before the Derby on behalf of Prince Ahmed bin Salman of Saudi Arabia. The pair liked his front-running victory over a weak field in the Illinois Derby.

Neither the jockeys who let War Emblem loose on the lead in dawdling fractions nor the bettors who dismissed him at odds of 21-1 believed he could lead every step of the way. At the Preakness, Charismatic was sent off at a generous price of 8-1; War Emblem was the 5-2 favorite. Each won convincingly. (New York Times)

Mike Brunker also makes the case for not dismissing Giacomo completely. (MSNBC)
I don’t know yet what I think of the Preakness field. It’s really shaping as an interesting one though, and I’m keeping an open mind until I have time on Thursday or Friday to study the past performances of all the starters. One thing that I can say with certainty is that I won’t be so quick to dimiss history — six of the last eight Derby winners captured the Preakness and 32 of the last 36 Preakness winners started in the Derby (Lowell Sun) — meaning, it’s very unlikely I’ll back Malibu Moonshine or Scrappy T, and Giacomo isn’t looking that bad to me right now.
More: “Yes, 50-1 shots may win the Derby, but predictability reigns in the 14-horse Preakness” (Baltimore Sun); Mike Watchmaker pares the Preakness contenders down into two groups (Daily Racing Form — sub. req.); more Preakness news …

Posted in Triple Crown on May 17, 2005

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