JC / Railbird - Triple Crown

Triple Crown Archive

Preakness Picks

Ed’s picks:
Kentucky Bear has flashed the kind of talent required to win this race.
Trainer Reade Baker has said that Big Brown does not even need to bounce off his winning Kentucky Derby effort for Kentucky Bear to win. While I don’t agree with that, I do think that Big Brown will react to his big effort two weeks ago, and that Kentucky Bear is the most likely winner if that happens.
Racecar Rhapsody ran some quick races at two, and this one looks to be rounding back into top form for trainer Ken McPeek in his third start off the layoff.
Racing Hall of Fame trainer Nick Zito has told anyone who will listen that Stevil will hit the board, and Zito’s friends did hit the superfecta last year when Hemingway’s Key finished third.
Look, I’m not stupid. Big Brown is the most likely winner, but there will be overlays in the exotic pool. Kentucky Bear has some steam on him, so I’ll play Big Brown on top of Stevil and Racecar Rhapsody in tris and key Kentucky Bear in the supers. Then I’ll back that up with Kentucky Bear, Racecar Rhapsody, and Stevil exacta boxes and them on top of Big Brown.
JC’s picks:
Steroids-enhanced Big Brown is 1-9 in early wagering and with his triple-Beyer advantage, he’ll be hard to beat. Going with probability, I’ll play Big Brown over Racecar Rhapsody, Giant Moon, and Hey Byrn.

Posted in Triple Crown on May 17, 2008

Friday Morning Notes

– On Thursday, Big Brown galloped a mile and a half at Pimlico, got a new pair of glue-on shoes on his front feet, and probably got a shot of the legal steroid Winstrol:

“I give all my horses Winstrol on the 15th of every month,” Dutrow told the Daily News.

Asked recently why he uses the supplement, Dutrow replied:

“You’d have to ask the vet what the purpose of that is,” he said. “I don’t know what it does. I just like using it.”

Prompting this hilarious follow-up conversation, which was reported by the Baltimore Sun:

You like using it, but you don’t know what it does? Why would you like using it if you don’t know what it does? You must see something?

“No,” he said. “I don’t.”

Do you see something from not using it?

“No,” he said.

Right, he knows nothing about what Winstrol does or why he likes it. I wonder if Dutrow, who maintains he has had only one medication violation in his career, knows more about the phenylbutazone overages at Gulfstream and Calder that went on his record this year (PDF).
– More about Big Brown’s new shoes and heels at Hoofcare.
– Behindatthebar is out of the Preakness. The Lexington winner came up with a bruised left front foot this morning.
– Dick Powell, pondering the Preakness, gets conspiratorial: “Why are a dozen mediocre sophomores willing to take him on? What do their connections know or suspect?”
– The stud deal for Big Brown, which was to be announced on Thursday, is on hold. “Legal issues and time constraints proved too much to overcome,” said IEAH president Michael Iavorone, “and we will revisit all options following the Preakness” (ThoroTimes).
– Thoroughbred Safety Committee chairman Stuart Janney said the day after the committee met for the first time that there were “relatively few” things the Jockey Club could do to enforce recommendations that might emerge from the panel’s deliberations and so the committee would mainly serve “as a bully pulpit to be persuasive on certain matters” (Blood-Horse). This is when I miss being a reporter: Such a statement, which suggests no forthcoming threats to the status quo, brings up several questions I’d love to ask. For instance: As the official breed registry — the organization through which every thoroughbred must be registered in order to race and breed — what hinders the Jockey Club from establishing rules regarding the age a horse enters stud service or forbidding the use for breeding of horses that ran on certain raceday medications? Surely, TJC has more power than just approving racehorse names.
– The Wall Street Journal follows Jess Jackson to Argentina, where the prominent owner scouts for sturdy breeding stock.
– Magnificience returns! Sunday, Hollywood, third race.

Posted in Triple Crown on May 16, 2008

Preakness Post Positions

PP	Horse	Jockey	ML
1	Macho Again	Leparoux	20-1
2	Tres Borrachos	Baze	30-1
3	Icabad Crane	Rose	30-1
4	Yankee Bravo	Solis	15-1
5	Behindatthebar	Flores	SCR
6	Racecar Rhapsody	Albarado	30-1
7	Big Brown	Desormeaux	1-2
8	Kentucky Bear	Theriot	15-1
9	Stevil	Velazquez	30-1
10	Riley Tucker	Prado	30-1
11	Giant Moon	Dominguez	30-1
12	Gayego	Smith	8-1
13	Hey Byrn	Lopez	20-1

Posted in Triple Crown on May 14, 2008

Better than Big Red

At least, on the Sheets, reports John Scheinman:

When Ragozin’s company calculated the performance by Big Brown on May 3 in the Kentucky Derby, it made a startling discovery: the 3-year-old colt had recorded a -3/4 , the lowest number in the modern history of the race.

“This is by a quarter of a point better than any other,” said Len Friedman, 66, a hardcore Sheets player from Brooklyn and head handicapper at Ragozin’s company. “Secretariat ran a 1/2 .”

I would like to believe that Big Brown is a once-in-a-lifetime horse and cheer him on to a Triple Crown, but what holds me back isn’t just a snobbish distaste for his connections, it’s the unresolvable question both Patrick, in his post “Big Brown Bonds,” and Jeremy Plonk, in his column “Derby Drugs,” have written about recently — how much of the immense talent displayed so far by Big Brown is natural and how much is assisted? The horse is blameless, but there’s an asterisk next to his name regardless.

Posted in Triple Crown on May 13, 2008

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