Railbird 2004–2019

Archive for 2013

Apollazano

There’ll be no getting away from it:

“We’ll have to answer all those Apollo questions,” Pletcher said, after describing Verrazano’s debut Jan. 1 and his projected route to Churchill Downs. Indeed, the undefeated Wood Memorial favorite broke his maiden on New Year’s Day. If he gets to the Kentucky Derby, he’ll be attempting to become the first horse who hadn’t started as a 2-year-old since Apollo to win the Derby. That was in 1882.

Every other Derby rule has been broken, but raced-at-2 still holds. Earlier this year, handicapper Jon White wrote about its 137-1 record and noted that:

Going all the way back to 1956, horses who did not race at 2 are a combined 0 for 49 in the Kentucky Derby. During this period, just five horses who did not race at 2 managed to even place or show in the Run for the Roses …

The 0 for 49 in 56 years stat points up a weakness in the rule — when we talk about contenders who didn’t start as 2-year-olds, we’re talking about a small group, even in recent years. Going back to 2003, only nine starters out of 192 didn’t race as juveniles. And of the five unraced-at-2 starters since 1956 who finished second or third in the Derby, two did so in the last five years.

Posted in Racing on April 5, 2013 / Tagged Derby Prospects, Kentucky Derby, Racing History, Statistics, Verrazano

Returning HOTYs

When Wise Dan makes his first start of the year at Keeneland on April 12, don’t bet against him. Returning Horses of the Year are 16 for 21 since 1972:

Favored returning HOTYs are 16 for 20. With a return of $43.50 on $40 bet, that makes favored returning HOTYs just about the surest bet in racing.

(The chart above is an updated version of one that appeared in a lengthier post about betting returning champions in March 2010.)

1:15 PM Addendum: So, how might you play Wise Dan? Hello Race Fans has some tips on factoring favorites, and singling and spreading.

Posted in Racing on April 4, 2013 / Tagged Betting, Champions, Favorites, First Starts, Horse of the Year, Statistics

KYC Past and Future

Dear Kentucky Confidential backers, sponsors, contributors, and readers:

Thank you for supporting Kentucky Confidential in 2011-2012.

You may have heard that Kentucky Confidential is returning this month. It isn’t, or at least, KYC, as I originally conceived it, and as I published it with co-founder John Scheinman these past two years, is not returning. After two years of enjoying the rush of being at Churchill Downs during Kentucky Derby week and working on a fun experiment in Derby storytelling and online media, the project had run its course for me.

Scheinman has decided to carry on with the name.

If you are considering sponsoring or contributing to KYC 2013, you should be aware that the project’s originator and co-founder has chosen not to be involved. If you are being sold a sponsorship that draws on traffic data from 2011-2012, you should know that KYC 2013 will not be published at the same URL as the previous KYC, that its producers do not have access to previous years’ mailing lists or registered user information, and that its content, design, and social media will not be guided by the same team.

I am very proud to have been part of KYC 2011-2012, and I wish Scheinman luck with his Kentucky Derby coverage this spring, but I also would like those who have been most supportive and interested in KYC to be aware of its changed circumstances.

Posted in Projects on April 3, 2013