Pletcher Baby ROI
Everyone knows that trainer Todd Pletcher is dominant is Saratoga juvenile races, but he’s profitable, too, in certain scenarios: His five-year win stat for first-time starters in dirt sprint maiden special weights is 32%, with an ROI of $2.57. In the same conditions, restricted to state-breds, he’s 46%, with an ROI of $3.25. “Perhaps the time to take down a Pletcher juvenile firster is in maiden special weight turf routes,” writes Dan Illman, who pulled the preceding numbers from DRF Formulator. Good luck getting a big price in any circumstance, though: The longest juvenile shot Pletcher has won at Saratoga with in the past five years is Interactif, in the 2009 With Anticipation. He was 16-1 at post time. The only other Pletcher winner with double-digit odds was Lawn Man, in a 2012 six-furlong MSW. He was 10-1 going into the gate.
Way Back, In the 1970s
Donnally confessed that he had every intention of finishing out of the money but was having trouble doing so because so many other jockeys were also restraining their horses.
New England racing, the Winter Hill gang, and one jockey’s story.
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Suffolk Downs notes: The Boston Globe profiles developer Richard Fields, “the track’s charismatic public face and largest shareholder” … Andria Terrill has been released from the hospital. The rider suffered three small skull fractures in an on-track accident on July 8 … Multiple stakes-placed Convocation (2nd, 2011 Westchester; 2nd, 2009 Suburban; 2nd, 2009 Dwyer) is entered for a $4,000 tag in the first race on Wednesday. It’s the 7-year-old gelding’s first start since finishing fourth at Belmont on May 9, when Trainer David Jacobson claimed him for $15,000. He’s had three works in the interim, none stellar, and is 9-5 on the morning line. [7/17/13: Convocation scratched.]
How Things Change
Jeremy Plonk has a realization re: how betting is changing at Woodbine:
It reminds me a lot of playing online through Xpressbet and other ADW outlets. We trust ourselves and trust the technology every single day we play. We just don’t typically do it at the racetrack, because we’re often too stuck on tradition to realize how society has changed.
Journalism changes, too: Steven Crist on 35 years at Saratoga.
Odds and Ends
Exacta-mundo on the current state of turf blogging: “… I can’t help but think we’re now truly in a time when there’s no one left to ask the needed questions without feeling like they have something to lose.”
If you’re in Massachusetts, you still stand to lose 5% on winning wagers paying more than $600: An amendment striking the new withholding requirement, which went into effect this spring, didn’t make it into the final version of the supplemental budget bill passed by the state legislature. How many Bay State bettors have been affected? Racing director Jennifer Durenberger told the Massachusetts Gaming Commission in this morning’s meeting that the state’s three simulcasting licensees report a total of 860 instances of state withholding since May, compared to 10 for federal withholding.
Another kind of loss: “… last Saturday at Hollywood was either a celebration or an early funeral.” (For consolation, see the coach.)
Missing Juveniles
What happens to all the 2-year-old maiden winners? Not long ago, Churchill had three stakes for 2-year-old colts in the spring. Now there’s only the Bashford Manor (plus the Debutante for fillies). And there’s virtually no such thing as an allowance race for 2-year-olds. How is this, with so many 2-year-olds on the grounds?
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Jessica Chapel writes and edits in Massachusetts. Railbird is a Thoroughbred horse racing blog published from June 2004 to July 2019. More / Contact
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