– There probably won’t be any 50-1 plays or life-changing scores for me this year: I like Sweetnorthernsaint, Point Determined, A.P. Warrior, Bob and John, and Brother Derek. Unfortunately, neither Sweetnorthernsaint nor Point Determined is likely to go to post anywhere near their morning line odds — both have picked up a lot of support over the past couple of days. Sweetnorthernsaint is this year’s so-called wise-guy horse, even though by almost every conventional measure (Beyer, history, pedigree, record) he should be one of the favorites. I know that no matter how I try to break down the race, he comes out on top every time — with Point Determined and A.P. Warrior not too far behind.
The one likely favorite I won’t play — and not just because of too-low odds — is Barbaro. Although he comes into the Derby undefeated and hasn’t missed a step prepping for it (and even though I worked for Michael Matz last summer at Saratoga and spent a good chunk of every morning for the first three weeks of the meet with Holy Ground, a half-brother to Barbaro, which makes the colt a sentimental pick if I was so inclined), I can’t get past his slow closing fractions on the dirt. I don’t doubt the son of Dynaformer can get the distance; what I do doubt is his ability to hold off any late challengers.
Of course, there are still more than 24 hours remaining, and I haven’t entirely dismissed the chances of Sinister Minister or Lawyer Ron, who I’m likely to include in a trifecta box with Sweetnorthernsaint and Point Determined, yet …
– Other people’s picks: Alan at Left at the Gate is wavering, but still likes Bob and John on top with Point Determined, AP Warrior, Keyed Entry. Andrew Beyer likes A. P. Warrior, Point Determined, and Barbaro; Mike Brunker will play Bob and John, Brother Derek, and Point Determined; Bill Finley picks Point Determined, Sweetnorthernsaint, and Steppenwolfer; Kevin Modesti thinks Brother Derek, Barbaro, and Bob and John can go the distance; Paul Moran is going with Sweetnorthernsaint, Barbaro, and Showing Up; and Jennie Rees likes one in particular: “A.P. Warrior is pretty clear-cut.”
– Washington Post racing correspondent John Scheinman had Giacomo last year — really — and this year he likes Sweetnorthernsaint. Pay attention: The scribe knows how to handicap.
– Derby weather: Partly sunny, with a high of 68.
– More Derby news >
Posted by JC in Racing on 05/05/2006 @ 2:30 pm / Tagged Kentucky Derby / Follow @railbird on Twitter
Suffolk Downs opens this Saturday for the 2006 meet, and the opening day card actually boasts several full fields, even though only 600 horses are on the grounds so far. Racing secretary Jim Pambianchi hopes to have 1,000 on the backstretch after Tampa closes this weekend. Good news for this year’s meet: After being cancelled last year, the MassCap will return this year, on September 30. “With the race scheduled five weeks before the Breeders’ Cup, it will be a logical spot for some of the Classic Division contenders to make their final prep,” said Suffolk COO Robert O’Malley. Doors opens at 10 a.m. and a season pass will be given out with all paid admissions.
Posted by JC in Suffolk Downs on 05/04/2006 @ 8:50 pm / Follow @railbird on Twitter
“Pincay thought he had won his first Kentucky Derby. Before him stretched the emptiness of the racetrack. He was in front and handriding, his whip uncocked and at his side. As they all came to the five-sixteenths pole, Turcotte looked ahead and saw Sham and thought he was running very easily and wondered for a moment if he could catch him. Already the move had lasted three-quarters of a mile, and in it Secretariat had run every quarter mile faster than the preceding quarter — the first in 0:25 1/5, the second around the clubhouse turn in 0:24, the third down the backside in 0:23 4/5, and now he was rushing through the fourth quarter at the rate of 0:23 2/5. Through it all, Turcotte had remained a figure of patience in a whirl of motion, his actions deliberate, his timing precise, his earliest instincts sound. He had ridden with an insight into the momentum of the race and the way the colt had been responding to it, sensitive to the scope of the move and to the possibilities it implied if it were left alone to run its course. And that was what he had done — he was confident it would leave him close to the lead at the turn for home — and now they were racing past the five-sixteenths pole and he measured Shecky Greene, saw Sham, and decided he had waited long enough. He was hand-riding, pumping on the colt, when he first chirped to him. Nothing happened, so he chirped again. Nothing happened again. Turcotte cocked his stick, turning it up, like the stave of a picador arming himself, and flashed it in front of Secretariat’s right eye, and that was when he felt the surge of power, suddenly, as if there’d been a change of gears.” — From “Secretariat: The Making of a Champion,” by William Nack
Posted by JC in Readings on 05/04/2006 @ 8:45 pm / Follow @railbird on Twitter
