Interesting reading from TimeformUS about how California Chrome’s Kentucky Derby figure was revised from a preliminary 104 to a final 110:
… we believe the wind and maintenance and distance … combined to make the final time seem even slower than it really was. California Chrome may not have broken any records, but his TimeformUS Speed Figure suggests his Derby was stronger than some may think.
I guess we won’t know until after the Preakness Stakes, or possibly later in the year, but I share the sense that his Derby win was better than the figures look, especially taking the wind into account for the first quarter, during which California Chrome had to make use of his tactical speed to secure a position rating off the early pace. He’s the only starter who ran a sub :24 first quarter to finish in the top four — the closest any of the other 10 who did the same finished was fifth, and six in that group finished 14th through 19th.
See also: Rob Bingel’s analysis of wind and time in the Derby (PDF) (via).
Related: Bob Ehalt talks to Len Friedman about California Chrome’s 7 1/4 sheets figure, “the slowest number since Cannonade earned an 8 in 1974.”
5/12/14 Addendum: Mike Watchmaker on the Derby Beyer speed figure:
… in this Derby, an incredible 15 of the 19 starters received lower Beyers than they did in their prior starts. In fact, it is incredible when such a large percentage of the field tails off Beyer-wise in any race, and is immediate cause to question the veracity of the winning fig.
The revised TimeformUS figure is roughly equivalent to 103 on the Beyer scale, which is still a regression from California Chrome’s previous 107 and 108, but seems a more plausible number than the 97 Beyer given to the Derby.
Posted by JC in Racing on 05/09/2014 @ 8:00 am / Tagged California Chrome, Churchill Downs, Kentucky Derby, Speed Figures, The Sheets, TimeformUS / Follow @railbird on Twitter
When asked, before the 1983 Preakness, about Marfa’s quarter crack:
Lukas responded: “When you get so close to one of these Triple Crown races with a good horse you do everything you can to make the race.”
The reporter countered with this remark that ended the press conference: “That sounds great Mr. Lukas, but isn’t it the horse that’s going to have to run around the track on Saturday; not you?”
Deputed Testamony won, Marfa finished fourth.
Posted by JC in Racing on 05/08/2014 @ 9:00 pm / Tagged D. Wayne Lukas, Deputed Testamony, Marfa, Preakness Stakes, Racing History / Follow @railbird on Twitter
Jay Hovdey:
The mob cries for the instant gratification of another Rachel Alexandra when Untapable, allowed to evolve in her own time, could be another Royal Delta.
Posted by JC in Racing on 05/07/2014 @ 6:00 pm / Tagged Untapable / Follow @railbird on Twitter
The way the Preakness Stakes is shaping up, California Chrome won’t meet many of those he beat in the Kentucky Derby again until the Belmont Stakes. That’s the race the Derby winner is most vulnerable, writes Sam Walker:
It is hard to be positive about the Belmont after [his Derby] run. Off such an ideal pace it would have been nice to see that margin of superiority extend ever further to the line, or at least hold true. But the fact is it diminished and over another furlong he might not have won.
The last Belmont quarter can be a killer. Just look at the recent sectional times:
Posted by JC in Racing on 05/06/2014 @ 9:48 am / Tagged Belmont Stakes, California Chrome, Kentucky Derby, Preakness Stakes, Triple Crown / Follow @railbird on Twitter
