JC / Railbird


More Speed

Interesting reading from TimeformUS about how California Chrome’s Kentucky Derby figure was revised from a preliminary 104 to a final 110:

… we believe the wind and maintenance and distance … combined to make the final time seem even slower than it really was. California Chrome may not have broken any records, but his TimeformUS Speed Figure suggests his Derby was stronger than some may think.

I guess we won’t know until after the Preakness Stakes, or possibly later in the year, but I share the sense that his Derby win was better than the figures look, especially taking the wind into account for the first quarter, during which California Chrome had to make use of his tactical speed to secure a position rating off the early pace. He’s the only starter who ran a sub :24 first quarter to finish in the top four — the closest any of the other 10 who did the same finished was fifth, and six in that group finished 14th through 19th.

See also: Rob Bingel’s analysis of wind and time in the Derby (PDF) (via).

Related: Bob Ehalt talks to Len Friedman about California Chrome’s 7 1/4 sheets figure, “the slowest number since Cannonade earned an 8 in 1974.”

5/12/14 Addendum: Mike Watchmaker on the Derby Beyer speed figure:

… in this Derby, an incredible 15 of the 19 starters received lower Beyers than they did in their prior starts. In fact, it is incredible when such a large percentage of the field tails off Beyer-wise in any race, and is immediate cause to question the veracity of the winning fig.

The revised TimeformUS figure is roughly equivalent to 103 on the Beyer scale, which is still a regression from California Chrome’s previous 107 and 108, but seems a more plausible number than the 97 Beyer given to the Derby.