JC / Railbird

Betting

Returning HOTYs

When Wise Dan makes his first start of the year at Keeneland on April 12, don’t bet against him. Returning Horses of the Year are 16 for 21 since 1972:

Favored returning HOTYs are 16 for 20. With a return of $43.50 on $40 bet, that makes favored returning HOTYs just about the surest bet in racing.

(The chart above is an updated version of one that appeared in a lengthier post about betting returning champions in March 2010.)

1:15 PM Addendum: So, how might you play Wise Dan? Hello Race Fans has some tips on factoring favorites, and singling and spreading.

Posted in Racing on April 4, 2013 / Tagged Betting, Champions, Favorites, First Starts, Horse of the Year, Statistics

Looking for a Price

Mike Maloney on how he plays superfectas:

I’ll structure bets with my key horses in third and fourth. There’s probably as much probability in the third and fourth spots as in the first and second. If you’re lucky enough where you get a price horse to win along with a key horse for third and fourth that is also a price — and a lot of them are — you’ve got a great chance to cash a monster ticket. Sometimes a dime super can pay into the thousands.

That’s from an interview with the noted big bettor in last fall’s Horseplayer Magazine, available as a PDF via HANA. Looking past the top two for wagering value is also an approach I enjoy, as I wrote on Hello Race Fans last year.

Posted in Racing on January 14, 2011 / Tagged Betting, Handicapping, Hello Race Fans, Horseplayers, Mike Maloney, Superfectas

Friday Notes

It’s back: I’ve updated the Kentucky Derby historical criteria spreadsheet with this year’s top 25 likely starters, by graded stakes earnings. Post positions and columns 1 and A-C will be updated after the field is drawn. Re: column 15, “key Derby preps” refers to the dozen races that have proven historically to be most significant for serious Kentucky Derby contenders. More on this factor (and how it’s changed, even in the last five years) next week.

On Wednesday, I had the pleasure of visiting two Manhattan OTBs with New York Times reporter Ariel Kaminer for a City Critic piece that will appear on Sunday. It’s her story, so I’ll refrain from saying anything about the day for now, but would like to thank @PreemieD for recommending the W. 72nd Street branch, which was “fancy” and modern, with marble floors and flat screen TVs, and mention that the Times is doing a Q&A on their City Room blog about “OTB, horse racing, betting — from off track or on — and anything else related to the sport of kings.” They’re taking questions and comments through the weekend, answers and replies to follow on Monday.

“Prado is hot,” I overheard a bettor say before the first race at Aqueduct on Wednesday. He knew what he was taking about: Edgar Prado won two that day (one after falling from his mount, who stumbled badly out of the gate, in the sixth) and then five on Thursday. The jockey took the third, the fifth, and swept the final three races on the card; the Prado Pick 3 paid $883.

Posted in Racing on April 23, 2010 / Tagged Aqueduct, Betting, Edgar Prado, Kentucky Derby, New York Times, NYC OTB, Spreadsheets

Returning Champions

March 30, 2019 Update: Hello, and thanks for visiting. If you’ve landed on this page via Horse Racing Datasets, or after reading “The Skeptical Handicapper,” by Barry Meadow, please note that while the post below was published in 2010, the spreadsheets referred to have been updated through 2017. You can view the current Google Doc or download an Excel file.

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Noting that Kelso went to post as the favorite in four out of five of his returns as reigning Horse of the Year, commenter o_crunk remarked:

It makes me wonder if returning champions who go off favored in their return beat the average win percentage of favorites?

It turns out that, yes, favored returning champions do beat the average.

Champions from 1971-2008 (excluding steeplechase horses) made 210 first starts back the year after being honored, going to post favored in 177 of those races (84%) and winning 105 times (59%), a rate well above the standard 33.3% (or the 2009 average of 36.6%) As usual, the public is astute: All returning champions averaged odds of .97-1, but favored returning champions averaged odds of .68-1. Betting $2 to win on each favored champion would have returned $321.10 $285 to $354 wagered.

(View the spreadsheet/download the spreadsheet.)

A few observations based on quick analysis:

Thirty-nine champions returned in ALW/AOC company, winning 26 (66%) of those races. No champion not favored — with the exception of 2008 juvenile champion Midshipman, returning in a 2009 Belmont AOC — won at this level.

Fifty-two champions returned in ungraded stakes, winning 30 (57%) at average odds of .84-1. Only two, out of five, not favored won, but betting $2 to win on those five would have returned $13.20 to $10 wagered.

Most champions returned in graded stakes, winning 49 (41%) of 119 starts. Of the 98 that were favored, 44 won (45%) at average odds of .80-1.

Including Rachel Alexandra, returning Horses of the Year since 1971 (see chart below) made 20 starts. Favored in 19 races, they won 15 (79%) at average odds of .40-1. Betting only favored HOTYs would have returned $41.40* for $38.

*Only with a little luck would a player be on the plus side. John Henry, the highest-priced favored returning Horse of the Year, finished second in the 1982 Santa Anita Handicap and was bumped to first by the disqualification of Perrault. If the results had stood, favored come-back HOTYs would have won 14 (74%) out of 19 starts and returned $36.80 for $38.

Posted in Racing on March 22, 2010 / Tagged Betting, Champions, Favorites, First Starts, Horse of the Year, Racing History, Statistics