JC / Railbird


A Bullish Derby Strategy

First, understand the race, then understand chance:

No. 5, Toro has learned the hard way the immutable, unmerciful truth of superfecta betting:

Only good horses reliably finish first or second, and only decent ones usually run third. But any half-wit critter with a post and a pulse can finish fourth.

This is why I rarely play the super, even for a dime.

Looking for a Price

Mike Maloney on how he plays superfectas:

I’ll structure bets with my key horses in third and fourth. There’s probably as much probability in the third and fourth spots as in the first and second. If you’re lucky enough where you get a price horse to win along with a key horse for third and fourth that is also a price — and a lot of them are — you’ve got a great chance to cash a monster ticket. Sometimes a dime super can pay into the thousands.

That’s from an interview with the noted big bettor in last fall’s Horseplayer Magazine, available as a PDF via HANA. Looking past the top two for wagering value is also an approach I enjoy, as I wrote on Hello Race Fans last year.