JC / Railbird

California Chrome

The Connection

Like so much about California Chrome’s story, it started with a feeling:

The 42-year-old Espinoza is a respected rider, but his business has slipped recently for no discernible reason except the whims of his clients. For several months Espinoza watched Chrome, at Del Mar and at the now shuttered Hollywood Park. He liked him. “I told my agent [Brian Beach], ‘There’s something about that horse, Art Sherman’s horse,'” says Espinoza. “I’m not even sure what it was. I thought I would just fit him.”

Beach remembers the conversation. “Certain riders just go together with certain horses,” he says. “Their styles or just physically, the way the rider sits on the horse. Victor thought he was a good match with this horse.”

Chrome is not only unbeaten in six races with Espinoza, but horse and rider have also been uncommonly synchronous. When Chrome tired at the top of the stretch in the Kentucky Derby, Espinoza reminded him to change leads. Even as Chrome habitually turns his head from side to side in the starting gate (his blinkers inhibit peripheral vision), Espinoza has taught him to break cleanly. Every small acceleration that Espinoza needs, Chrome provides. “Tremendous ability,” says Espinoza. “So much talent.” The colt rarely feels Espinoza’s whip (just twice in the furious Preakness homestretch), instead trusting the rider’s hands to guide most of his action.

6/3/14 Addendum: Joe Drape tells the story of strangers, but for a horse.

Posted in Racing on June 1, 2014 / Tagged Belmont Stakes, California Chrome, Dumb Ass Partners, Triple Crown, Victor Espinoza

Chrome Works

David Grening on California Chrome’s breeze this morning (DRF+):

With regular rider Victor Espinoza up, California Chrome went his first quarter in 24.14 seconds and his second quarter in 23.30, according to DRF clocker Mike Welsch. It only got better from there, as he galloped out five furlongs in 59.59 seconds, six furlongs in 1:12.61, seven furlongs in 1:26.34, and pulled up a mile in 1:40.92.

That’s a sharp move. His official time for the four-furlong breeze was :47.69.

“I’m not a clocker but California Chrome looked full of run and seemed to have plenty left in the tank,” tweeted Jerry Bossert.

Here’s video of the work:

More on California Chrome’s work, as well as the other Belmont starters’ workouts this morning, at the Blood-Horse.

General a Rod, fourth in the Preakness and 11th in the Kentucky Derby, has joined the list of Belmont Stakes probables, bringing the number to 12.

6/1/14 Addendum: Welsch weighs in (DRF+). “The best part of the work came after the wire, as California Chrome galloped out with tremendous energy, even with Espinoza rising up in the saddle shortly past the finish line …”

Posted in Racing on May 31, 2014 / Tagged Belmont Stakes, California Chrome, General a Rod, Triple Crown, Workouts

The Odds

FiveThirtyEight analyzes the 36-year Triple Crown drought:

The last 12 horses to win the Derby and the Preakness have failed to complete the Triple Crown. With a historical success rate of 33 percent, the current 12-race slump is unlikely: The odds of it happening by chance are about 1 in 130 — nearly the same as the 2011 Atlanta Braves failing to make Major League Baseball’s playoffs with 18 games remaining and an 8.5-game lead for the wild card.

Here’s another way of putting it:

The odds of all 11 horses that raced in the Belmont losing at their race odds (by chance) are only 1 in 20,000 — about the odds of a random pitcher throwing a perfect game on a given night.

California Chrome is expected to face a full field in the Belmont Stakes. NYRA reported the historically daunting number of 11 on Saturday:

No horse has won the Triple Crown facing more than seven rivals, which Seattle Slew and Citation did in 1977 and 1948, respectively. Secretariat in 1973 and Affirmed, the most recent Triple Crown winner in 1978, both defeated four others.

With Intense Holiday now out after suffering a condylar fracture while working on Sunday (trainer Todd Pletcher said the injury wasn’t life-threatening and may not be career-ending), the list of possible challengers stands at 10, including Wicked Strong, Tonalist, Samraat, and Commissioner. All four also worked on Sunday: Videos of their works, plus one of California Chrome galloping, are available on the NYRA YouTube channel.

5/28/14 Update: Medal Count, eighth in the Kentucky Derby, has been declared possible for the Belmont. “[His] Derby was better than it looks,” said trainer Dale Romans, making a case for his colt as Triple Crown spoiler. “History shows it will be difficult for California Chrome.”

Posted in Racing on May 26, 2014 / Tagged Belmont Stakes, California Chrome, Intense Holiday, Statistics, Triple Crown