JC / Railbird

Champions

Wise Dan’s Return

The Horse of the Year is set to make his first start of 2014 today, and:

“If he is going to be vulnerable, this is it because the others that are in there have been running,” [trainer Charlie] LoPresti said.

True, but he’s also a returning champion. The odds are good that he’ll win. In 2010, I found that returning champions beat the winning favorites average by a significant margin when they made their first starts of a new season.

The stats for returning champions are now updated through 2012: You can view the numbers and complete spreadsheet via Raceday 360. There are a couple of changes in this year’s version: I restricted the data to only starts made in North American races with wagering (horses who returned in non-wagering exhibition races and foreign races were excluded, as were steeplechase champions). I also broke out the numbers by division and decade this year, as well as by class, which revealed a few interesting tidbits.

One thing I left out of the R360 post, but wanted to make note of, is that all champions, not only the favored, won or finished in the money in 186 out of 228 races (or 82% of starts). Be sure to include them in your exotics.

The original data, including all champions named from 1971-2012, and not only those who returned to race, can be downloaded as an Excel file.

4/12/14 Update: And Wise Dan wins the Maker’s 46 Mile by three-quarters of a length over Kaigun. Here’s the returning Horse of the Year chart, updated:

That brings the returning HOTY record to 18 wins from 23 starts (18 wins from 22 favored), for a total payout of $49.10 on $46 bet.

Posted in Racing on April 11, 2014 / Tagged Betting, Champions, Favorites, First Starts, Horse of the Year, Racing History, Statistics

Lasix-Free Delta

Well, that’s interesting:

Mott said Royal Delta probably never needed Lasix to begin with and probably won’t run on it for the remainder of the year.

Royal Delta is aiming for a repeat win in the Personal Ensign at Saratoga on August 25 following her second straight win in the Delaware Handicap on Saturday. She was given a Beyer speed figure of 105 for that performance.

Posted in Racing on July 22, 2013 / Tagged Champions, Distaffers, Lasix, Raceday Medications, Royal Delta, Saratoga

It’s Like 2008 Again

We knew this was happening in 2013, didn’t we? After Rachel Alexandra, after Zenyatta, after Goldikova and Frankel and Black Caviar:

There will be no gimmes this year. The champions will be beatable; luck will again become part of top level horse racing and the pecking order will be nowhere near as well defined as that to which we have become accustomed.

Of course, there’s still a lot of racing ahead …

Posted in Racing on June 4, 2013 / Tagged Champions, Distaffers, Great Horses, International, Rankings

Running Again

Rachel Alexandra in her Stonestreet paddock, May 2012.

I’ll take any excuse for a Rachel Alexandra post, and Melissa Hoppert gives me a good one with a story about visiting the 2009 Preakness Stakes winner, who is recovering well from her near-death post-foaling ordeal earlier this year:

“Running is not the word for it,” Comer said. “She is breezing for the Belmont. When we turn around, she’s back to her old self. She is up in the air, she rears, she runs, she bucks, she plays. She is definitely feeling good.”

Wonderful! Get in the mood for today’s Preakness (post time 6:20 PM ET) with a replay of the 2009 edition. “She’s got her ears up, pricked, ready to go …”

You’re rooting for Orb today, right? “You’ve gotta.”

Posted in Racing on May 18, 2013 / Tagged Champions, Distaffers, Great Horses, Orb, Preakness Stakes, Rachel Alexandra, Stonestreet Farm