JC / Railbird

Graded Stakes

Super Saturday 2014

Today’s group and graded stakes with potential Breeders’ Cup implications from Newmarket to Santa Anita, listed in order of approximate post time:

Charts, replays, and occasional updates to be added through the day.

4:25 PM: Stephanie’s Kitten, the 2011 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Fillies winner, just earned her way into this year’s Filly and Mare Turf with a win in the Flower Bowl at Belmont Park as the 6-5 favorite (following second-place finishes in the Beverly D. and Diana this summer). You know Stephanie’s Kitten will be at Santa Anita so long as she’s sound, but the same can’t be said for Kelso Handicap winner Vyjack — according to the post-race quote sent out by NYRA, trainer Rudy Rodriguez had been targeting the Cigar Mile. “I have to talk to the owner and see what his plans are now,” said Rodriquez. Woodward winner Itsmyluckyday, not Breeders’ Cup nominated, finished third in the Kelso. Said Jockey Paco Lopez after, “He tried really hard, but I don’t think he liked the track.” Woodward runner-up Moreno is pegged as the 7-2 second favorite on the Jockey Club Gold Cup morning line.

4:55 PM: Private Zone must like Belmont. Winless in three starts since last year’s Vosburgh Stakes, he became the first horse in 24 years to win the Vosburgh for two consecutive years (the last was New Jersey-bred Sewickley in 1989-1990, whose broodmare sire was Dr. Fager, a back-to-back Vosburgh winner in 1967-68). Too bad for Private Zone that the Breeders’ Cup is at Santa Anita again. He finished 10th in the 2013 Sprint.

5:47 PM: Wow — 10 minutes to post in the Zenyatta Stakes and 95% of the show pool is on two-time champion Beholder, making her first start since sustaining an injury while finishing fourth in the June 7 Phipps at Belmont:

6:10 PM: You have to admire a filly as game and classy as Beholder:

It's been a privilege to watch Beholder in last two years. Greatly looking forward to her appearance in BC Distaff here Oct. 31. #santaanita

— Steve Andersen (@DRFAndersen) September 27, 2014

10:00 PM: Here’s how much further Trakus says Shared Belief had to run than runner-up Fed Biz to win the Awesome Again after Sky Kingdom (the other Baffert and the longest shot in the field) forced him wide on the first turn:

Posted in Racing on September 27, 2014 / Tagged Breeders' Cup, Graded Stakes

Stakes Inflation

Chris Rossi on the graded stakes bubble:

As foal crops have declined, so has the number of race days for a total of 6,250 race days lost since 2006. Yet the number of stakes awarded graded status has remained level: 475 awarded in 2006 and 474 awarded in 2011. This failure to adapt to the new racing landscape has resulted in an increase of 14% in the number of races awarded graded status.

The 2016 projection should strike fear in everyone involved in breeding and selling American Thoroughbreds. Without correction, short fields and ducking connections won’t be just the bane of bettors in the very near future.

(Neither the Paulick Report nor Equidaily like to pick up Raceday 360 pieces, but both should aggregate this one.)

Posted in Racing on September 25, 2012 / Tagged AGSC, Breeding, Business of Racing, Graded Stakes, Sales, Stakes Inflation, Stakes Racing, Statistics

Grading Process

The American Graded Stakes Committee released the list of 2011 graded stakes on Thursday, and aside from a slight contraction in overall numbers (13 races were dropped, a reduction of 2.7% from 2009), the most notable change was that the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf was bumped from Grade 2 to Grade 1. Its companion race, the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf remained a Grade 2, prompting Steven Crist to write, “it makes you wonder if that race is a permanent part of the BC program,” and owner Bobby Flay — who won the 2010 Fillies Turf with More Than Real — to opine in today’s TDN that, “Clearly, this is a short-sighted mistake that can only be labeled as sexist.” It’s not. And it most likely means nothing as far as the BC’s future program. The Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf was first run in 2007, first graded in 2009, and run as a Grade 2 for two years. The Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Fillies was first run in 2008, first graded in 2010, and has been run only one year as a graded race. There seems no reason to doubt that, true to pattern, the Fillies Turf will made a Grade 1 in 2012, after two runnings as a Grade 2.

Posted in Racing on December 4, 2010 / Tagged American Graded Stakes Committee, Breeders' Cup, Graded Stakes, Stakes Racing