JC / Railbird

Handicapping

Odds and Ends

Dick Jerardi doesn’t care where a single comes in a bet sequence: “The way I look at it, there are two possibilities: I am going to be right or I am going to be wrong. When that is determined is irrelevant.”

Can you be the best ever if you need a rabbit?

Breeders’ Cup Turf Trends: It’s all about the finish.

As much as I’d like to think Excelebration will be the second-favorite to Wise Dan in the Breeders’ Cup Mile (and available at 3-1 or better), raceday betting will probably look more like the current ante-post odds.

Appreciating Frankie Dettori, “global proponent of la dolce vita.”

Posted in Racing on October 25, 2012 / Tagged #BC12, Breeders' Cup, Frankel, Great Horses, Handicapping, Turf, Wagering

2012 Breeders’ Cup Links

11/2/12: Mike Welsch’s Breeders’ Cup Clocker Saturday report card

10/31/12: Official programs with full PPs for Friday (PDF) and Saturday (PDF) / Hello Race Fans cheat sheets for the Ladies’ Classic and Classic / Mike Welsch’s Breeders’ Cup Clocker Friday report card

10/30/12: Breeders’ Cup entries, with morning line / Breeders’ Cup stats site / Breeders’ Cup Challenge race replays

10/24/12: Breeders’ Cup pre-entries (PDF) / BC Friday pre-entry PPs (PDF) / BC Saturday pre-entry PPs (PDF) / Steven Crist’s pre-entry cheat sheet

Posted in Racing on October 24, 2012 / Tagged #BC12, Breeders' Cup, Entries, Handicapping, PPs, Pre-Entries, Reference

Tough Cup

Jay Cronley:

The problem with the Breeders’ Cup from a handicapper’s perspective is: Few if any horses are hurt, or sore. Few trainers are incompetent hacks, or probably crooked. Few jockeys are bums. Oftentimes during the two-day event, all the horses appear remarkably similar in ability. What it often comes down to is eliminating horses that shouldn’t win because of personal handicapping preferences, long layoffs, surface changes, jockey changes, running styles. That should pare each field down to eight or nine that look exactly alike.

The Breeders’ Cup: A test for handicappers as much as horses.

Posted in Racing on October 8, 2012 / Tagged Angles, Breeders' Cup, Favorites, Handicapping, Wagering

Unfair

Mike Watchmaker on the Super Saturday Santa Anita main track bias:

Look, horses like Game On Dude and Executiveprivilege were probably going to win Saturday whether or not there was a bias, so I don’t think they should be penalized for riding the crest of the way the track was playing. I am less convinced about Love and Pride and Power Broker. But I do know that the way the track was playing, well bet closers such as Richard’s Kid, Include Me Out, Amani, and Capo Bastone had absolutely zero chance. And that’s not fair.

Come the Breeders’ Cup, will we have reason to miss the Santa Anita synthetic?

Posted in Racing on September 30, 2012 / Tagged Bias, Breeders' Cup, Handicapping, Santa Anita, Super Saturday, Track Surfaces