JC / Railbird - Handicapping

Handicapping

Pletcher Baby ROI

Everyone knows that trainer Todd Pletcher is dominant is Saratoga juvenile races, but he’s profitable, too, in certain scenarios: His five-year win stat for first-time starters in dirt sprint maiden special weights is 32%, with an ROI of $2.57. In the same conditions, restricted to state-breds, he’s 46%, with an ROI of $3.25. “Perhaps the time to take down a Pletcher juvenile firster is in maiden special weight turf routes,” writes Dan Illman, who pulled the preceding numbers from DRF Formulator. Good luck getting a big price in any circumstance, though: The longest juvenile shot Pletcher has won at Saratoga with in the past five years is Interactif, in the 2009 With Anticipation. He was 16-1 at post time. The only other Pletcher winner with double-digit odds was Lawn Man, in a 2012 six-furlong MSW. He was 10-1 going into the gate.

Posted in Racing on July 18, 2013 / Tagged Betting, DRF Formulator, Handicapping, Juveniles, ROI, Saratoga, Statistics, Todd Pletcher

Odds and Ends

Dick Jerardi doesn’t care where a single comes in a bet sequence: “The way I look at it, there are two possibilities: I am going to be right or I am going to be wrong. When that is determined is irrelevant.”

Can you be the best ever if you need a rabbit?

Breeders’ Cup Turf Trends: It’s all about the finish.

As much as I’d like to think Excelebration will be the second-favorite to Wise Dan in the Breeders’ Cup Mile (and available at 3-1 or better), raceday betting will probably look more like the current ante-post odds.

Appreciating Frankie Dettori, “global proponent of la dolce vita.”

Posted in Racing on October 25, 2012 / Tagged #BC12, Breeders' Cup, Frankel, Great Horses, Handicapping, Turf, Wagering