Handle
Wednesday Notes
NYC OTB closed at midnight last night after the New York state senate failed to pass a bill that would have allowed the company to continue operations. That means no more Channel 71 for racing fans watching at home. Much more seriously, it means more than 800 people out of work, an as-yet-unknown amount of lost wagering dollars, and more than $600 million in added state debt. The situation really couldn’t have been handled any worse. “As bad as OTB was, this was not the time to kill it,” observes Bill Finley. It certainly wasn’t the right way to kill it. But, is this the end? “I’m not ready to write the epitaph quite yet,” writes Alan Mann in his analysis of what happened yesterday. I suspect he’s right. The impact of the shutdown will be felt immediately, giving the state and industry plenty of incentives to revive New York City off-track betting, and maybe even in a form that benefits the game.
Churchill Downs CEO Robert Evans isn’t feeling the gloom. In his keynote address at the UA-RTIP Symposium on Tuesday, Evans found reasons for optimism among horse racing’s challenges, including this stat:
Evans said that racing’s customers still respond to quality, and that if the downsized industry keeps more of the quality product and reduces the poor end that the industry should thrive. To illustrate that point, Evans noted that handle on the top 25 races actually increased 18% in 2009 versus 2003, even as total handle during that period declined 19%.
Interesting. If you think you know the 25 big-event races Evans was referring to, Ed DeRosa has a contest for you. The TDN has Evans’ presentation, which includes his outline for a potential viable business model (PDF).
Dirt racing fans aren’t alone in loathing synthetic surfaces. Turf racing fans also hate synths, and for reasons that are familiar. Alan Aitken writes of the Hong Kong all-weather surface, “a purulent sore on the otherwise peach-like complexion of racing,” on Saturday: “Despite the course running fast, leaders staggered home in very slow sectionals but still held on as if by magic.” Everyone hates it when pace doesn’t play as expected.
A Matter of Perspective
Which recap best captures Rachel Alexandra’s three-length win as the 1-10 favorite in the ungraded Lady’s Secret Stakes at Monmouth this afternoon?
Rachel Alexandra has to work in Lady’s Secret victory (Blood-Horse)
… it was not a walkover for the reigning Horse of the Year …
Rachel Alexandra cruises in the Lady’s Secret (Thoroughbred Times)
Rachel Alexandra turned in a performance befitting a Horse of the Year …
Rachel Alexandra takes care of business (Daily Racing Form)
… a solid win, considering the conditions.
I’m partial to the last. She tracked an unexciting pace, responded when asked, looked comfortable, despite the heat. She won by open lengths, even if not by a great margin. (And really, what would have been gained by a blowout?)
Final time for the nine furlongs was 1:49.78 (final furlong :12.75).
With Rachel Alexandra running, Monmouth racked up phenomenal handle numbers, taking in a record $11,421,794 on its 12-race card. The WPS pool in the Lady’s Secret hit $1,593,662, the exacta pool $343,968.
At Saratoga today, first-timer Wine Police turned heads with a wire-to-wire win in the seventh, a 5 1/2 furlong maiden special, which the 2-year-old Speightstown colt took by 7 3/4 lengths in a final time of 1:03.36 (watch the replay). He’s the latest addition this summer’s buzz babies list.
7/25/10 Addendum: A Beyer speed figure of 110 for Rachel Alexandra in the Lady’s Secret, 105 for runner-up Queen Martha. That’s a big number for ‘Martha, who was making her second US start and her first on dirt. Rachel Alexandra’s BSF revised to 105, per Mike Watchmaker (DRF+).
Weekend Notes
Buzz builds for “Luck.” A producer claims, “it will be the greatest show on TV.” TV critic Alan Sepinwall (who writes some of the best “Mad Men” recaps out there) is excited — and worried — about the HBO drama, noting that it “may have the most prominent creative firepower, in front of and behind the camera, of any show in the channel’s history,” but what about Dustin Hoffman? Entertainment Weekly tabs the Oscar winner’s presence as a “breakthrough” for TV, while Santa Anita reveals what Variety didn’t, that the first season will consist of the pilot and “seven to nine additional weekly episodes.”
Sure, bring the kids for a day at the races. But don’t let them bet at Saratoga. (A trespass charge and an anti-gambling class? Oh, come on.)
Wow. Monmouth Park reports incredible results for the first 24 days of the “elite summer meet,” with attendance up 13% over comparable days in 2009, on-track handle up 43%, and total handle up an amazing 118%. The average field size is also up over last year, to 9.0, compared to 7.44 in 2009. Monmouth doesn’t mention claiming activity in its press release, but that must also be up by a huge amount, with 215+ claims so far. At the start of the Monmouth “less-is-more” experiment, Steven Crist wrote, “Gov. Chris Christie has said his goal is to make the racing industry ‘entirely self-sustaining.’ Unless handle increases from last year’s $3.1 million a day to $10 million, that isn’t going to happen.” That hasn’t happened, but with average daily handle of $7.6 million, Monmouth is still in a very good spot. [7/19/10 Addition: Business of Racing digs into Monmouth claiming activity vis-a-vis Belmont.]
By Ragozin figures, Blind Luck tops 3-year-olds of either sex.
After the Massachusetts state senate approved a casino bill 25-15 earlier this month, expanded gaming looked almost certain. There were just a few differences with the house bill to reconcile in committee, and a tight deadline for getting legislation to the governor. Difficult, but not impossible. Now, State House News Service reports, “… serious people are talking in somber tones about a two-week stare-down that yields nothing in the way of major legislation. The unimaginable — failure to sanction casinos despite Big 3 ardor and at least $1.8 million spent on lobbying during the first six months of the year — looms.” It’ll be a tense watch for slots supporters …
“Yes, a gentleman!” I never tire of the General Quarters story.
Links for 2010-02-13
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"Once the overseas betting turnover of his 24-hour, seven-day operation is taken into account, his total annual betting spend globally is believed to be well over $1 billion." More from a related article on Ranogajec: "Advantages like the sophisticated information and rebates stack the deck in favour of professionals like Mr. Ranogajec and other internationally renowned punters like American Bill Benter, over average punters."
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Article from 2000 about bettor Bill Benter, an early adopter of computer wagering. "If we do make money, the money has to come from somewhere. Well, yes, the general public loses a somewhat higher ratio." See also: This 2003 Wired piece on Hong Kong computer teams. "Working from mathematical models that are calculated to deliver a 24 percent return on investments, Hong Kong's most sophisticated computer-assisted bettors operate with long-term certainty of what their profits should be."
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Hustle. Passion. Subject knowledge.
Night Numbers
By all accounts, Churchill Downs’ inaugural night of racing was a success: “It looks like the Dubai World Cup,” said jockey Julien Leparoux, surveying the crowd (Daily Racing Form); “We had to park and walk like it was Oaks or Derby day,” said an attendee (Paulick Report). The final attendance figure announced by Churchill was a healthy 28,011 for a card without a major stakes. But what about handle? As @superterrific noticed,
… all the reports of success don’t include handle …
Churchill no longer releases handle totals, but it is possible to glean clues about last night’s wagering from the pool data included on Equibase charts. For instance, on Friday, June 12, $1,966,831 was wagered WPS on 11 regularly scheduled races compared to the $2,309,563 that was wagered WPS yesterday on 11 nighttime races. That’s an increase of approximately 17% in the WPS pools week to week. In the late Pick 4 pool, $103,062 was wagered the previous Friday versus $137,689 last night, a 34% bump (the first Pick 4 pool was up 14%). Pick 3 pools totaled $273,409 compared to $243,508, up 12%. The tiny Pick 6 pool was up 80%, going from $4,811 last Friday to $8,653 last night. Total exacta pools showed some of the smallest growth, up a mere 6%, or $1,584,627 last night compared to $1,500,217 the week before.
Overall, not bad, considering the crowd skewed young and casual (Aside: Churchill took much criticism for raising the track entrance fee to $10, but clearly that didn’t keep people away and it surely made up for some of what many attendees didn’t — and wouldn’t have — bet). Looking at what information is available, it seems safe to conclude even without official figures that night racing was a win for handle as well as attendance.
Addendum: Curious about the totals, I returned to the charts and tallied all the pools for both dates. On June 12, total handle came to $5,872,007; on June 19, $6,526,603, an increase of 11%. Without figures from Churchill, it’s impossible to know the breakdown between on- and off-track wagering and whether on-track bettors wagered less per capita Friday night or how simulcast wagering might have been affected. Regarding the latter, it does seem likely the late post-times resulted in depressed off-track handle: The first three races on Friday night were the only races where pool totals didn’t exceed totals from the previous week. It was in race four, which had a post-time of 7:30 p.m., that wagering took off, with $704,666 wagered compared to $387,382 the week before. Take the first three races out of the totals for both days, and Churchill handle was up almost 18% for races four through eleven.
6/21/09 Update: The Courier-Journal reports that Churchill Downs took in $6.5 million from all sources (the same number I came to above), “a 32 percent increase.” Since the reporter earlier referenced 2008 numbers in discussing on-track numbers, I’m going to assume that this increase also represents a year to year comparison, not a week to week.
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Jessica Chapel writes and edits in Massachusetts. Railbird is a Thoroughbred horse racing blog published from June 2004 to July 2019. More / Contact
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