Juveniles
BC Pre-Entry Day
And on the NY Times’ Rail Blog, back for the Breeders’ Cup, I take a look at the 10 Euro juveniles pre-entered in this year’s races, including the two very interesting Bernardini buzz babies Biondetti and Theyskens’ Theory. Although I mentioned both were cross-entered in their divisions, I left out that that both have first preference for the dirt races. Trainer Brian Meehan seems quite set on the Juvenile Fillies for ‘Theory,’ but what Godolphin will choose for Biondetti is a little less clear. They’re giving nothing away. Mark Simon, writing in the Thoroughbred Times, speculates that the Juvenile purse and prestige (and a possible championship) will be a factor in their decision. If the two start on dirt, they’ll make four, with Marathon prospects Bright Horizon and Precision Break, the number of Euro contenders running in main track races.
Friday Notes
There have been retirements, defections, and unexpected announcements, but the recent Breeders’ Cup news that’s most interested me is that Theyskens’ Theory is now a probable for the Juvenile Fillies. ‘Theory,’ a Bernardini-sired 3/4 sibling to 2005 juvenile champion Stevie Wonderboy, started her career with three straight wins two wins from three starts before finishing third to Together and White Moonstone in the Fillies’ Mile. Trainer Brian Meehan, who hadn’t been talking about the BC for the buzz baby before that race at Ascot last month, much less a surface switch, said of the effort, “It was a good run, just not her best.” Maybe she’ll show that at Churchill Downs.
Keeneland president Nick Nicholson is succeeding Alan Marzelli as Equibase chairman at the end of the year. Dare to dream? It would be nice if the announcement heralded positive changes for the industry’s database going forward. Getting ahead of things, I started wondering what datasets I’d most like Equibase to make freely available in the way that Keeneland has its Polycapping database and sales results. All the Triple Crown races, of course, and the Breeders’ Cup races, as a group and by division. The Eclipse winners, as a group and by division. Pools, certainly, by track, by year, by wager type …
While watching Mr. McMillan direct every issue back to the rent being too damn high, it occurred to me that maybe this is just what we need in horse racing. Instead of analyzing to death all the nuances of the issues that plague our sport, maybe we need the single-mindedness of Mr. McMillan. Maybe, we need Mr. McMillan himself to be our leader. Maybe we need Mr. McMillan to head up a new movement called “The Takeout is Too Damn High!”
Racing already has a McMillan. Its name is HANA.
With the end of the Suffolk Downs meet fast approaching, many East Boston racehorses are in need of new careers. CANTER New England is holding its fifth annual Showcase this Sunday, October 24, on the Suffolk backstretch, from 9:00 AM to noon, for just that reason. Read this delightful OTTB success story, about how well a retired Suffolk thoroughbred adapted to life off track, and stop by to check out the dozens of jumper, riding, and pasture prospects that the hard-working CANTER volunteers have cataloged for this year’s event.
No Allowances
Is the stakes race the new allowance race for juvenile males?
There’s been a trend toward running 2-year-old maiden winners in stakes without a stop at the allowance level, but it seems especially pronounced this year. Consider: Of the 103 starters in the 16 open juvenile graded stakes run to date, 62 were coming off a maiden start, 48 of those maiden wins. Only four of the 103 had a start in an allowance race prior to their first start in a stakes, graded or ungraded. The number rises to six if counting Stormy Rush’s allowance start before the G3 Summer Stakes, not included below, or Conservative Value’s allowance start before the ungraded Cradle Stakes.
(Stakes races are organized by grade, then date. Horses are displayed in order of finish, from 1-2-3-X. View the full spreadsheet here.)
A few notes: Several horses in the Hollywood Juvenile, including winner JP’s Gusto, previously started in the ungraded Proctor Memorial Stakes at Hollywood. Those juveniles, as well as the Lost in the Fog Stakes and Par Four Stakes starters included above, were all entered off maiden races. Boys at Tosconova started his career in stakes, before winning a Saratoga maiden special, and then the G1 Hopeful. Things didn’t turn out so well for Manchurian High, who made his first two starts in stakes before entering a Belmont maiden, in which he finished ninth. Two of the juvenile starters above, Sensational Slam and Road Ready, have only run (and not well) in stakes.
I’m interested in any theories as to why the allowance start is disappearing among this set (or arguments that it isn’t), and opinions on the increasingly common move of going from maiden to graded stakes without a win …
Monday Notes
Frank Mitchell asks, “who are the great mares of the past 100 years?” Coming up with names isn’t a problem (there are so many), but refining the ranking methodology could be tricky. Record in open company has to be one of the criteria. Regarding that, you have to give Alan Shuback credit for pointing out the unpopular fact that, as the two near their final races in the Breeders’ Cup, Goldikova has proved more than Zenyatta.
The Racing Post rates Dewhurst winner Frankel “as the best European juvenile in the 21st century.” On the all-time list, he ties for third. No doubt Frankel’s freaky, and so is Champagne winner Uncle Mo, as measured by Thorograph. [More Frankel: BHA handicapper Mathew Tester bumps his rating up to 124. That’s the second highest for a Dewhurst winner this young century. It’s also second for the season to Dream Ahead’s top-rated nine-length Middle Park win, and as such, “doesn’t do justice” to the colt, sniffs Hotspur.]
The Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies lost one contender and gained another over the weekend. Oak Leaf winner Rigoletta has been ruled out with a splint injury. Undefeated homebred Awesome Feather earned herself a shot at Churchill Downs after winning the My Dear Girl division of the Florida Stallion Stakes at Calder. “Breeders’ Cup!,” exulted owner-trainer Stanley Gold. “That’s what we discussed going into the race. If she won and did it right, we’d go …”
So, I guess this guy plays football? And he visited Zenyatta?
Fabulous Frankel
Well, that was impressive. With seeming ease, Frankel drew off to win the seven-furlong Group 1 Dewhurst Stakes by 2 1/4 lengths over ground rated good to soft. His final time of 1:25.73 was three-tenths of a second faster than older horses going the same distance in the Group 2 Challenge Stakes.
What’s more, he did it without Tom Queally going to the whip. “I didn’t have to resort to the stick,” said the jockey, “and if you don’t punish young horses like this at this stage of their career then it is a bonus.”
Post-race reaction quotes on the Sporting Life liveblog give a sense of how pleased trainer Henry Cecil was with Frankel’s performance:
1452: More from Cecil — and this is the headline-stuff. He says: “It’s lovely to have a horse like this. At home he works unbelievably well, I’ve never had a horse work like him as a two-year-old. He’s in second gear and doesn’t run away with you but goes into a sixth gear. If he was a formula one car he’d win everything, as long as I didn’t drive him” …
1448: As Frankel returned, Cecil lent over to Lord Grimthorpe and said: “We need to find him a pacemaker” …
William Hill responded to the win by making the 2-year-old Galileo colt, now 4-for-4, the 4-5 favorite for the 2000 Guineas, “although whether he will remain odds-on through the winter is open to some doubt as other firms were not quite so impressed.” Bookmakers also cut their prices on runner-up Roderic O’Connor, while raising odds on the previously undefeated Dream Ahead and Saamidd, who finished fifth and sixth. Of the two, Saamidd’s effort was considerably more disappointing. The colt balked at entering the starting gate (ultimately requiring a blindfold), and never looked comfortable racing. Dream Ahead, at least, briefly gave chase to Frankel before fading.
You know who else is fabulous? Zenyatta. The big mare graces a full page in the November issue of W magazine, flattering text by Steve Haskin (“She … transcends the Thoroughbred as we know it”) accompanying a stylish head shot (love the forelock tousled just so — she’s a fashion magazine natural). A W photo shoot, a billboard, a country song — I can’t think of any living racehorse in recent years who has crossed over into mainstream culture as much as she has (except, perhaps, for poor Barbaro). Trainer John Shirreffs, talking to media at Keeneland on Friday, was absolutely right about one thing — Zenyatta has done a lot for the game, generating good will and positive coverage with her accomplishments.
Added to the watch list today, Brethren, a debut winner at Belmont Park and half-brother to Super Saver, just in case he turns out to be fabulous someday.
Thursday Notes
Dewhurst dozen halved, but the big three remain. Trainer David Simcock is certain “lazy” Dream Ahead won’t hang this time, not with regular rider William Buick up, and not with competition from Frankel and Saamidd. “These are good enough horses that he’s not going to be streaking five lengths clear.”
Aidan O’Brien trainee Bright Horizon, possible for the Breeders’ Cup Marathon, looks a lot like recent winners, writes Brad Free: “… his form in Europe is comparable to Marathon winners Man of Iron and Muhannak.” But both those horses won over Pro-Ride; the Marathon this year will be run over dirt. The Churchill Downs surface could be advantage Americans.
“Why are sportswriters so invested in sports stars retiring while still on the top or, as Rhoden puts it, with their ‘legacy intact’?” So, it’s not just racing …
Buy a Belmont Stakes winner: Da’ Tara is available as a racing or stallion prospect as hip #3308 (PDF) in the Keeneland November sale.
Jaycito to Win
As good as Uncle Mo appears to be, I was more impressed by the finishing punch shown by Jaycito, who won his maiden winning the 1 1/16-mile Norfolk Stakes around two turns at Hollywood Park on Oct. 2. In that race, Jaycito caught and passed J P’s Gusto, a fast, three-time stakes winner. The image I had reviewing that race was of Jaycito doing the same to Uncle Mo on Breeders’ Cup Day.
Me too.
(Via @JaycitoHOY2011, the latest in faux racehorse tweeting.)
It may be futile, but I’m trying to resist the lure of history, in which Uncle Mo potentially figures on the basis of his stellar performance (and final time) in the Champagne Stakes. “Since the 1940 adjustment of the Champagne to one mile,” writes Nick Kling, “only five other colts have run under 1:35. They were Count Fleet (1942), Vitriolic (1967), Spectacular Bid (1978), Easy Goer (1988), and Sea Hero (1992).” That’s in addition to Champagne record-setter Devil’s Bag and second-fastest Seattle Slew. It’s good company. “The scary thing,” trainer Todd Pletcher told Tim Wilkin, “is that I think he is still learning.”
In the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies, jockey Calvin Borel picks up the mount on Tell a Kelly. “He’s the man at Churchill Downs,” said trainer John Sadler.
The Big Three
Saturday’s Dewhurst Stakes drew a dozen possibles, including undefeated Frankel, Dream Ahead, and Saamidd, whetting interest in “the most eagerly-awaited two-year-old race of the modern era,” or, if you prefer, “the best race for two-year-olds in living memory.” Oh, my, that is hype. It makes all the post-Champagne Stakes twittering about the anticipated Uncle Mo and Boys at Tosconova match-up in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile look staid by comparison (for example, see Dick Jerardi, John Pricci). Some hype is certainly justified — it’s undeniably an intriguing scenario shaping up at Newmarket, with the flawless reputations of the Dewhurst Big 3 on the line.
Aside: Don’t worry about Frankel’s jockey, Tom Queally, who fell from a horse at Goodwood on Sunday. “He’s not concussed,” said the rider’s agent.
A few other buzz baby items to note: Wickedly Perfect, winner of the Alcibiades Stakes at Keeneland on Friday, and AZ Warrior, winner of the Frizette Stakes at Belmont on Saturday, were the second and third fillies to come back from the Debutante Stakes at Del Mar last month to score a stakes win. Rigoletta, third in that race to Wickedly Perfect and Tell a Kelly, won the Oak Leaf Stakes at Hollywood last week. The Debutante has also yielded a next-out allowance winner, with sixth-place finisher Sugarinthemorning winning at Hollywood on Sunday … Wickedly Perfect won’t make the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies. A bone chip was discovered in her knee after the Alcibiades … AZ Warrior was one of two G1 winners for freshman sire Bernardini over the weekend. His other was Biondetti, taking the Gran Criterium in Milan for Godolphin. The colt is possible for the Breeders’ Cup, said trainer Mahmood al Zarooni … Aidan O’Brien trainee Together, second to undefeated White Moonstone in the Fillies’ Mile, could start in the Turf Fillies.
Housekeeping: Taking advantage of Equibase’s improved features, including the new horse profile pages with charts and workouts info, the spreadsheet’s been cleaned up (and should be much easier to use).
Will Mo Have Mo?
Brad Free on the likely Champagne favorite (DRF+):
Uncle Mo might become a star. He might be a future footnote. Either way, handicappers should be aware that recent history suggests Uncle Mo is likely to regress Saturday in his second start. When a 2-year-old firster runs a triple-digit Beyer, it takes time to revitalize.
In the past 10 years, writes Free, 15 2YOs have run a triple-digit BSF in their debut. Only two improved on their figure in their next start.
Bob Ehalt’s Ragozin anaylsis runs to a similar conclusion: “Weighing all of those possibilities, Uncle Mo seems more likely to regress than advance …”
10/9/10 Update: Question answered. Uncle Mo dominated the G1 Champagne Stakes at Belmont today, winning the one-mile race by open lengths in 1:34.51 after being pressed through a half in :45.92 by I’m Steppin’ It up:
Said trainer Todd Pletcher after, “He’s obviously a very fast and talented horse and it looked as if he was doing it easily.” Uncle Mo will ship to Churchill Downs on October 26 for the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile.
Beyer speed figures, via @andyserling: 94 for Uncle Mo in the Champagne Stakes, 81 for AZ Warrior in the Frizette Stakes.
Thursday Notes
Wait, Forever Together might not be done yet. Trainer Jonathan Sheppard, who said after the champion finished sixth in the Flower Bowl, “It’s no fun watching her run like that,” and suggested the 6-year-old mare would be retired, told Alicia Wincze Forever Together might get another race. “If we get firm ground [for the Breeders’ Cup] we might go on. We haven’t ruled anything out.”
Jaycito should have the stamina for the Kentucky Derby, and that’s the race trainer Mike Mitchell has his eye on. “The ultimate race we want to run in is the Derby,” he said after Jaycito broke his maiden in his third start, last Saturday’s Norfolk. In his two previous efforts, the juvenile finished second to JP’s Gusto in the Del Mar Futurity and second to Indian Winter, third in the Futurity, in a maiden special. Like Stay Thirsty, entered but unlikely for the Champagne unless stablemate Uncle Mo scratches, he’s a colt on the upswing. [Re: that last link, it goes to trainer Todd Pletcher’s ATR blog, on which he also mentions that Frizette starter Tap for Luck, “is probably the one that’s bred the best to get more distance. Unfortunately, she’s only had one race and it was five furlongs so we’re stretching out more than you would like.”]
With the Southern California horse population down, Santa Anita will try a less-is-more schedule this winter. The track plans four-day weeks, with racing Thursday through Sunday. The change, said track president George Haines, “should make the quality better on the weekends.” Fuller fields are something to look forward to; a shame about the takeout increase.
Kerry Thomas talks equine psychology. “Herd dynamics have an impact on a horse’s ability to maintain pace over a distance. Where they fit in a herd is where they’re naturally inclined to move in any group.” Fascinating stuff.
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Jessica Chapel writes and edits in Massachusetts. Railbird is a Thoroughbred horse racing blog published from June 2004 to July 2019. More / Contact
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