Kentucky Derby
2019 Kentucky Derby
Prep schedule: Includes leaderboard, charts, replays, speed figures
Foundation
The greatest example of all that the curse of Apollo is nothing to scoff at is Curlin. He broke his maiden at Gulfstream then galloped in the Rebel and Arkansas Derby. But the best he could do in Louisville was third.
He went on to win the Preakness, the Jockey Club Gold Cup twice, the Dubai World Cup and was twice Horse of the Year. But the Run for the Roses was too tough a challenge too soon.
Bill Finley shrugs at Khozan’s challenge:
… the modern Kentucky Derby bears little resemblance to what the race was even just 15 or 20 years ago. Khozan won’t be going up against grizzled veterans of the turf wars, horses that have started 15 times or so, including seven or eight starts as two-year-olds. He will be facing horses more like him than not. Most will have had only six or seven lifetime starts, their races carefully spaced out and their trainers careful never to have pushed them too hard. As a lightly raced horse with no experience as a 2-year-old, he’s simply not going to be at that big of a disadvantage.
Previously re: the curse: 2014, 2013.
The complete list of Kentucky Derby starters unraced as juveniles (PDF).
3/6/15: And just like that, Khozan is out. The colt exited a routine gallop on Friday morning with an apparent right hind ankle injury.
Rebel Possible for Brandi
Owner Willis Horton and trainer D. Wayne Lukas are considering entering filly champion Take Charge Brandi in the March 14 Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park, the same race American Pharoah is expected to make his first start in since last September. Lukas told Mary Rampellini that the Kentucky Oaks is still Brandi’s goal, but Horton likes the idea of keeping her options open: “If we win the Rebel we get the 50 points for it, and it puts us in a position where we can either go to the Kentucky Oaks or the Kentucky Derby.” And if she finishes second, she’ll get 20 points, which would likely put her on the bubble for a Kentucky Derby entry. The returning 2-year-old male champion looks formidable; he’s also been out with a foot injury. Add in the larger purse and that, aside from Pharoah, the Rebel is expected to draw “names that shouldn’t strike fear into the hearts of anyone,” starting Brandi in this race, instead of the Honeybee, looks like a pretty good (and sporting) move.
From what I’ve witnessed from my seat on the backbenches, Take Charge Brandi would seem better served going for the Honeybee rather than the more difficult Rebel hornets’ nest. If her connections ultimately choose the latter, though, it would probably be no less useful a prep for the Fantasy …
She has 40 points towards the Oaks — there’s really nothing for her to lose.
Mr. Z, another Lukas trainee, is one of the defectors from the Rebel Stakes after finishing third in the Southwest. He’ll start next instead in the March 28 Louisiana Derby at the Fair Grounds. He’s also getting an equipment change:
@thomasherding @bh_cnovak blinkers coming off
— Justin Zayat (@JustinZayat) February 24, 2015
3/3/15 Update: She’s going in the Rebel, says Lukas.
3/10/15 Update: She’s out. Take Charge Brandi will miss the Rebel Stakes and Kentucky Oaks after being diagnosed with a non-displaced knee chip.
Itsfiftypoints for a Star
Kentucky Derby preps moved into the 50-point round with the Fountain of Youth at Gulfstream and Risen Star at the Fair Grounds yesterday, and Itsaknockout and International Star both essentially secured places in the starting gate at Churchill Downs on the first Saturday in May with their respective wins. Charts, replays, speed figures, and the updated leaderboard are all available via the big Kentucky Derby prep schedule.
Itsaknockout was given a Beyer speed figure of 90 for the Fountain of Youth; he technically remains undefeated. Upstart, first to the wire, but disqualified and placed second for interfering in the stretch with the official winner, earned a Beyer of 95. Trainer Rick Violette called the stewards’ decision “very, very questionable,” and is considering sending Upstart to the Wood Memorial for his final prep, instead of starting him in the Florida Derby as planned.
For the Risen Star, International Star was given a 93 Beyer. He’s owned by Ken and Sarah Ramsey, yet not one of their many Kittens, being by 2000 Kentucky Derby winner Fusaichi Pegasus. (A little note for Suffolk Downs players: He’s also a half-brother to a familiar name in the 2013-2014 entries — Jet Pack.)
More Speed
… we believe the wind and maintenance and distance … combined to make the final time seem even slower than it really was. California Chrome may not have broken any records, but his TimeformUS Speed Figure suggests his Derby was stronger than some may think.
I guess we won’t know until after the Preakness Stakes, or possibly later in the year, but I share the sense that his Derby win was better than the figures look, especially taking the wind into account for the first quarter, during which California Chrome had to make use of his tactical speed to secure a position rating off the early pace. He’s the only starter who ran a sub :24 first quarter to finish in the top four — the closest any of the other 10 who did the same finished was fifth, and six in that group finished 14th through 19th.
See also: Rob Bingel’s analysis of wind and time in the Derby (PDF) (via).
Related: Bob Ehalt talks to Len Friedman about California Chrome’s 7 1/4 sheets figure, “the slowest number since Cannonade earned an 8 in 1974.”
5/12/14 Addendum: Mike Watchmaker on the Derby Beyer speed figure:
… in this Derby, an incredible 15 of the 19 starters received lower Beyers than they did in their prior starts. In fact, it is incredible when such a large percentage of the field tails off Beyer-wise in any race, and is immediate cause to question the veracity of the winning fig.
The revised TimeformUS figure is roughly equivalent to 103 on the Beyer scale, which is still a regression from California Chrome’s previous 107 and 108, but seems a more plausible number than the 97 Beyer given to the Derby.
The Last Leg
The way the Preakness Stakes is shaping up, California Chrome won’t meet many of those he beat in the Kentucky Derby again until the Belmont Stakes. That’s the race the Derby winner is most vulnerable, writes Sam Walker:
It is hard to be positive about the Belmont after [his Derby] run. Off such an ideal pace it would have been nice to see that margin of superiority extend ever further to the line, or at least hold true. But the fact is it diminished and over another furlong he might not have won.
The last Belmont quarter can be a killer. Just look at the recent sectional times:
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Jessica Chapel writes and edits in Massachusetts. Railbird is a Thoroughbred horse racing blog published from June 2004 to July 2019. More / Contact
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